{"id":267666,"date":"2023-07-16T13:57:58","date_gmt":"2023-07-16T11:57:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267666"},"modified":"2023-07-16T13:58:00","modified_gmt":"2023-07-16T11:58:00","slug":"draft-note-for-bim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267666","title":{"rendered":"Draft note for\u00a0Bim"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Climate Scepticism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0ROBIN GUENIER<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Clear blue\u00a0water?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As some Cliscep readers know, I\u2019ve been planning over recent weeks to send a note to my MP, Bim Afolami, proposing a new climate change policy for the Tory party. Well, I\u2019ve completed a draft of that note and set it out below. I\u2019ve decided to do this before I send it to him so as to get what I hope might be useful criticisms, comments and\/or suggestions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dear Bim,<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I appreciate that you have little sympathy with my views on Net Zero. But, as you must have noticed, the project is going horribly wrong \u2013 possibly to the extent that it\u2019s no longer affordable or workable. Moreover, because it\u2019s increasingly unpopular, it\u2019s looks as though it might be becoming politically toxic.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some examples of current problems:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Businesses that have agreed to install major wind projects are finding that the costs of so doing are proving\u00a0far greater than expected<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 mainly because of growing material and finance costs \u2013 and are threatening that, unless they get greatly increased subsidies,\u00a0they may leave the UK<\/a>. In addition, the costs of maintaining wind turbines are proving to be\u00a0seriously expensive<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, these costs do not cover backup power generation when the wind is not blowing hard enough, or blowing too hard \u2013 essential if we\u2019re to avoid disastrous blackouts. Nor does it include the cost of building and running transmission lines from remote wind farms to places where people actually live (see note 2 below). I suggest these difficulties are an indication that wind power is not \u2013 and probably never will be \u2013 the cheap form of energy we were promised and therefore is not a route to achieving Net Zero.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Another emerging problem is the extreme difficulty of reengineering the National Grid to accommodate renewable energy; a result is that new projects are being delayed by\u00a0as much as fifteen years<\/a>. We\u2019re told the \u2018solution\u2019 is the installation of\u00a0hundreds of miles of high voltage cable<\/a>\u00a0requiring thousands of new pylons throughout the country. There\u2019s little doubt that, as well as\u00a0hugely expensive<\/a>, this would be most unpopular. And that\u2019s not all: local power distribution will also have to be reengineered to handle the needs of electric vehicles and electric heating. All this would be both disruptive and costly \u2013 hardy likely to appeal to already burdened householders and taxpayers.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Local climate initiatives such as\u00a0London\u2019s ULEZ scheme<\/a>\u00a0and various\u00a0\u201915 minute cities<\/a>\u2019 are heartily disliked by many \u2018ordinary\u2019 and particularly poorer people who want to get on with their lives and run their businesses without having to deal with such annoying inconvenience.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Ordinary people \u2013 and especially working class people \u2013 are getting increasingly annoyed by the actions of Just Stop Oil, Extinction Rebellion and the like. And,\u00a0as their real motives become apparent,<\/a>\u00a0that dislike is likely to escalate. Yet the Labour Party seems strangely ambivalent about them and, to the dismay of Scottish oil workers, has even said\u00a0it would follow Just Stop Oil\u2019s demand<\/a>\u00a0by banning all new oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. It\u2019s becoming evident that plans for replacing conventionally powered vehicles with electric vehicles were\u00a0a mistake<\/a>: they\u2019re\u00a0too expensive<\/a>, their range is a worry \u2013 made worse by a serious shortage of charging points and the fact that people without private driveways cannot conveniently charge such cars at home (another attack on ordinary and poorer people). And their\u00a0second hand values are dreadful<\/a>. Moreover, as well as all this, they\u2019re a\u00a0threat to the UK car industry<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. Likewise, it\u2019s becoming clear that the planned transition from gas boilers to heat pumps is\u00a0a poor idea<\/a>. Few people are interested: not only are they more expensive but, if they\u2019re to work effectively, many (possibly most) properties require better insulation, larger radiators and pipework \u2013 all this costs a lot of money. Quite simply, most people cannot afford it. It\u2019s no surprise that the country\u2019s\u00a0falling far behind<\/a>\u00a0the government\u2019s installation target.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet, despite these problems and despite the fact that people are already facing huge increases in the cost of living and are\u00a0strongly opposed<\/a>\u00a0to paying for climate action, it\u2019s remarkable that so many politicians still support the Net Zero policy.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is there a solution? Well, as you know, I consider Net Zero unachievable, potentially disastrous and, in any case, pointless; I believe it would be in Britain\u2019s best interest to abandon it and adopt a new policy that takes full account of practical reality and especially of international political reality. But I have come to accept that none of Britain\u2019s main political parties \u2013 including yours \u2013 is likely to agree. Nonetheless, I think there is a solution that accepts the need to eliminate emissions yet overcomes most of the problems to which I refer above. But in particular it\u2019s a solution that would be welcomed by taxpayers, homeowners, motorists and ordinary voters throughout the country and therefore, as Labour seems to be especially committed to Net Zero, it also provides an important opportunity for the Conservative Party, facing the prospect of severe defeat at next year\u2019s General Election, to establish popular \u2018clear blue water\u2019 between itself and Labour.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s my suggestion: the Conservative Party should announce that, although it accepts that emissions have to be reduced, it\u2019s also aware that most of the world is continuing to use fossil fuels \u2013\u00a0still over 80% of global primary energy<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 and that current UK policies are unpopular and hurting people who are struggling with the cost of living. Therefore the Party\u2019s policy from hereon will be that, although Britain should aim to reduce its emissions, it will do so no more radically than other major economies \u2013 in particular China, the USA, India, Russia, Japan and Germany.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Your opponents will say that this policy ignores the fact that Britain is seen as a climate change leader and must continue to set an example. But\u00a0the evidence shows<\/a>\u00a0that other countries do not follow our lead: for example, in 1990, the UK emitted 0.6 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2<\/sub>\u00a0and China and India 2.4 Gt and 0.6 Gt respectively. By 2021, the UK figure was 0.3 Gt \u2013 a 50%\u00a0reduction. Yet China\u2019s and India\u2019s 2021 figures were 12.5 Gt and 2.6 Gt \u2013 421% and 333%\u00a0increases. No, the \u2018leadership\u2019 argument betrays an outdated, neo-colonial frame of mind. Emerging economies are not interested in following a Western lead and are confident that they\u2019re capable of deciding for themselves and going their own way. It\u2019s quite extraordinary that, of all people, the left are in effect arguing that old white men (politicians and scientists) in the West should be telling people of colour in the non-Western world (comprising 84% of humanity and all its poorest people) what they should be doing.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best wishes<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robin Guenier, July 2023<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obviously, I\u2019ve no idea whether this will have any impact; perhaps he won\u2019t even bother to read it. But I\u2019m hopeful that it might \u2013 as some of us have been discussing in comments on Jit\u2019s article \u2018The Green Green Green Benches of\u00a0Home\u2019, there are some signs that the Tory and interestingly the Labour leaderships are considering the possibility of softening the impact of net zero. It would be most satisfactory if this note were to contribute to a bidding war between the parties in the run-up to next year\u2019s general election. But maybe that\u2019s being over ambitious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robin<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As some Cliscep readers know, I\u2019ve been planning over recent weeks to send a note to my MP, Bim Afolami, proposing a new climate change policy for the Tory party. Well, I\u2019ve completed a draft of that note and set it out below. I\u2019ve decided to do this before I send it to him so as to get what I hope might be useful criticisms, comments and\/or suggestions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":267674,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818279,691818056,691821102,691819433,691818154],"class_list":{"0":"post-267666","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-blackouts","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-conservative-party","11":"tag-energy-subsidies","12":"tag-net-zero","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-464.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-17Dc","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":221987,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=221987","url_meta":{"origin":267666,"position":0},"title":"Steve Baker says UK cannot afford net zero pledge \u201ain the short run\u2018","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/10\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Having tied their own hands with the Climate Change Act, UK politicians are now locked in arguments about how best to implement unworkable energy policies.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-119.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-119.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-119.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-119.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-119.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":188662,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=188662","url_meta":{"origin":267666,"position":1},"title":"Who\u2019s Afraid of Net Zero Watch?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/02\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Guardian appears to have developed an obsession this month with the Net Zero Scrutiny Group. 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The combination of \u201940\u00b0C temperatures\u2018 and \u201aEngland\u2018 feels about as natural a pairing as \u201aEnglish football\u2018 and \u201awinning\u2018; God simply did not intend the two to go together as they did this week. 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