{"id":267566,"date":"2023-07-15T12:50:32","date_gmt":"2023-07-15T10:50:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267566"},"modified":"2023-07-15T12:50:35","modified_gmt":"2023-07-15T10:50:35","slug":"hudson-bay-sea-ice-loss-has-not-accelerated-since-2014-in-fact-summer-ice-cover-has-improved","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267566","title":{"rendered":"Hudson Bay sea ice loss has not accelerated since 2014: in fact, summer ice cover has improved"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From polarbearscience<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is an early breakup year for Hudson Bay but sea ice loss has not been accelerating. While some Western Hudson Bay bears have been on land for weeks, others are still out on melting remnants of sea ice, much of it invisible to satellites. This is only the third year since 2014 that the bay has had less than usual amounts of ice, which means most years since then have had normal or nearly normal ice coverage, similar to the 1980s. Hardly the\u00a0ever-worsening catastrophe<\/a>\u00a0of sea ice loss story being spun in the media for Western Hudson Bay polar bears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From the\u00a0tracking map above<\/a>, out of the 38 visible tags or collars on bears at 11 July 2023, 16 bears (42%) were on land and 22 (58%) were still out on the sea ice. That\u2019s virtually identical to the\u00a040\/60 percent split last week<\/a>\u00a0when there was even more ice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ice coverage this week<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the week of 10 July 2023, this ice chart from the Canadian Ice Service (below) suggests that\u00a0at least<\/em>\u00a0four tagged bears<\/a>\u00a0(see chart above) are resting on ice that the satellites can\u2019t see. It\u2019s unlikely they are swimming because they were in\u00a0similar locations last week<\/a>. This is an earlier-than-usual breakup pattern, similar to what was documented for the two decades after the\u00a0step-change in 1995<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polar bears and sea ice<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NASA Earth Observatory<\/a>\u00a0recently (12 July 2023) provided a bullhorn for activist polar bear specialists to advance their scary narrative about Hudson Bay polar bears (my bold):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2023, some\u00a0Western Hudson Bay polar bears<\/a>\u00a0started to return to shore in\u00a0mid-June<\/a>, but others lingered on the ice well into July. \u201cMid-June is early to have bears on land,\u201d said University of Alberta scientist\u00a0Andrew Derocher<\/a>.\u00a0<\/em>\u201cWhen I started studying polar bears in Western Hudson Bay in the 1980s, we would have bears on the ice well into August.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite some of the bears swimming ashore early, Derocher\u00a0noted<\/a>\u00a0that many bears were still out on the ice in early July, despite how little ice was left and how fragmented the last bits of ice had become.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe bears on ice are hanging on at extraordinarily low ice levels,\u201d Derocher said. \u201cBut better for them to be there trying to kill another seal than on land with little or nothing to eat. Bears can feed and keep putting on weight well into the summer if they have the ice. For polar bears, it truly is survival of the fattest.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Funny that Derocher doesn\u2019t mention that polar bears were\u00a0out on the ice well into August in both 2020 and 2022<\/a>: no, he leaves that part out and emphasizes that breakup is early this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do polar bears in Hudson Bay kill seals in July and August<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also, despite Derocher\u2019s statement to NASA, there is no documented evidence that western or southern Hudson Bay polar bears routinely kill seals from melting sea ice in July and August. Derocher\u00a0assumes<\/em>\u00a0they do but\u00a0he has no evidence<\/em>\u00a0that this actually happens because no one has ever studied this phenomenon. It\u2019s unlikely that more than a few seals spend extented periods hauled out on sea ice in mid-summer because most of them, including adults and juveniles, will be out in open water feeding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s normal breakup for Hudson Bay?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The diagram below is from a paper by Ian Stirling and colleagues (2004), and it shows what the usual or normal pattern of sea ice breakup was between 1971 and 2000. Ice conditions this year are about what was expected in late July or about two weeks early (dark grey). According to the analysis by Castro de la Guardia and colleagues (2017), breakup in 2015 was about two weeks earlier than it had been prior to 1995 or similar to this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mid-July ice cover 2015-2023<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the pattern this year is unusual compared to the last nine years. Since 2014, only 3 years out of 9 (2023, 2021 and 2017) had less than usual amounts of ice at mid-July. Four years (2016, 2019, 2020, and 2022) presented conditions that would be considered \u201cnormal\u201d based on Stirling et al.\u2019s long-term data (1971-2000), while 2015 and 2018 had lots of ice at mid-July but more of it than usual was in the northeast quadrant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, Hudson Bay has had normal sea ice cover at mid-July more often than it has had reduced ice cover. This means sea ice loss over the Bay\u00a0has not been accelerating<\/a>, rather ice coverage has been\u00a0improving overall since 2014\u00a0<\/a>compared to the two decades before. That\u2019s why the\u00a0claimed 27% decline in polar bear numbers<\/a>\u00a0for Western Hudson Bay between 2017 and 2021 could not be blamed on lack of sea ice: sea ice conditions were mostly been very good in those years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Have a look at the ice charts below, starting with this year:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Castro de la Guardia, L.., Myers, P.G., Derocher, A.E., et al. 2017.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sea ice cycle in western Hudson Bay, Canada, from a polar bear perspective.\u00a0Marine Ecology Progress Series<\/em>\u00a0<\/strong>564: 225\u2013233.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

http:\/\/www.int-res.com\/abstracts\/meps\/v564\/p225-233\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stirling, I., Lunn, N.J., Iacozza, J. et al. 2004.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polar bear distribution and abundance on the southwestern Hudson Bay coast during open water season, in relation to population trends and annual ice patterns.\u00a0Arctic<\/em>\u00a057(1):15-26.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/journalhosting.ucalgary.ca\/index.php\/arctic\/article\/view\/63539<\/a>\u00a0Open access.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is only the third year since 2014 that the bay has had less than usual amounts of ice, which means most years since then have had normal or nearly normal ice coverage, similar to the 1980s. Hardly the\u00a0ever-worsening catastrophe\u00a0of sea ice loss story being spun in the media for Western Hudson Bay polar bears.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":267586,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818250,691821091,691821089,691820789,691821090],"class_list":["post-267566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-hudson-bay","tag-nasa-earth-observatory","tag-sea-ice-loss","tag-western-hudson-bay","tag-western-hudson-bay-polar-bears","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-17BA","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":265498,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=265498","url_meta":{"origin":267566,"position":0},"title":"Early sea ice breakup in W Hudson Bay caused by \u201crecord breaking\u201d warmth in 2023 but not 2015?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"According to\u00a0Polar Bears International, the \u201c3rd-earliest\u201d breakup date for Western Hudson Bay was caused by a \u201crecord breaking\u201d heat wave in May. Western Hudson Bay sea ice hit the 30% coverage threshold used by PBI to define \u201cbreakup\u201d on 17 June this year, prompting speculation about potential future impacts on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Bears Onshore\"","block_context":{"text":"Bears Onshore","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bears-onshore"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0OIGP-3.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0OIGP-3.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0OIGP-3.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0OIGP-3.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":290645,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=290645","url_meta":{"origin":267566,"position":1},"title":"Despite hand-wringing about Churchill polar bears this year, 2023 wasn\u2019t their worst summer","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"For months, the media has been bleating about the poor polar bears of Churchill suffering from lack of sea ice blamed on human-caused climate change during the so-called\u00a0\u2018hottest year\u2019 on record: in\u00a0April,\u00a0July,\u00a0August,\u00a0November, and\u00a0December.","rel":"","context":"In \"2023\"","block_context":{"text":"2023","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2023"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":266535,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=266535","url_meta":{"origin":267566,"position":2},"title":"Natural flexibility explains W Hudson Bay polar bear movements at breakup better than climate change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Hudson Bay in early July this year is a mosaic of more-than-average and less-than-average sea ice coverage but apparently, only the less-than-average ice areas constitute the \u201cearly breakup\u201d caused by climate change, and only \u201cdeniers\u201d would say otherwise.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-279.png?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-279.png?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-279.png?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-279.png?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-279.png?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":289393,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=289393","url_meta":{"origin":267566,"position":3},"title":"Western Hudson Bay polar bears on their way offshore to hunt seals: freeze-up has begun","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From polarbearscience Official confirmation\u00a0has come in this morning that polar bears that have spent the summer fasting along Western Hudson Bay now have enough ice to move offshore. That makes this year\u00a0a bit later than usual\u00a0(average is 16 November) but is not one of the extremely late freeze-ups,\u00a0as happened in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"polar bears\"","block_context":{"text":"polar bears","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=polar-bears"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/00Polar-Bear-Paul-Nicklen-NG.jpg?fit=1190%2C785&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/00Polar-Bear-Paul-Nicklen-NG.jpg?fit=1190%2C785&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/00Polar-Bear-Paul-Nicklen-NG.jpg?fit=1190%2C785&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/00Polar-Bear-Paul-Nicklen-NG.jpg?fit=1190%2C785&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/00Polar-Bear-Paul-Nicklen-NG.jpg?fit=1190%2C785&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":254176,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=254176","url_meta":{"origin":267566,"position":4},"title":"Earth Day sea ice habitat during critical spring season for Arctic seals, polar bears, and walrus","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/22\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"This is the most important time of year for Arctic marine mammals that spend time above the ice: birthing,\u00a0breeding, and\u00a0feeding. And there is plenty of the right kind of ice available for those activities this year, as there was\u00a0two years ago\u00a0at the same time.","rel":"","context":"In \"Barents Sea ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Barents Sea ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=barents-sea-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0Polar-bears.jpeg?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0Polar-bears.jpeg?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0Polar-bears.jpeg?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0Polar-bears.jpeg?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0Polar-bears.jpeg?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":257313,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=257313","url_meta":{"origin":267566,"position":5},"title":"Polar bears in W. Hudson Bay are in good shape, says researcher. So are numbers really falling?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/13\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"We\u2019ve got ourselves another round of field data\u2013i.e., facts\u2013not fitting the\u00a0polar-bears-are-starving-to-death\u00a0narrative. 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