{"id":267137,"date":"2023-07-13T11:59:25","date_gmt":"2023-07-13T09:59:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267137"},"modified":"2023-07-13T11:59:28","modified_gmt":"2023-07-13T09:59:28","slug":"alarming-deterioration-of-us-national-weather-service-tornado-warnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267137","title":{"rendered":"Alarming deterioration of US National Weather Service tornado warnings"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Climate Etc.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

by\u00a0Mike Smith<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In spite of better meteorological technology than ever and more raw scientific knowledge about storms, we are seeing a serious regression in a vital government program: the National Weather Service\u2019s tornado warning program.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tornadoes have been a bane of living in the United States since pre-Colonial times. In the late 19th<\/sup>\u00a0Century, the Army Signal Corps attempted to create a tornado forecasting service. In spite of some signs of progress, it was shut down because tornado forecasts would, allegedly, \u201ccause panic.\u201d It was said that more people would die from panic induced by the forecasts than would be killed by the tornadoes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the 1950\u2019s, the Weather Bureau \u2013 forerunner of today\u2019s National Weather Service \u2013 was dragged, largely by outside events, into the tornado forecast and warning business. The Bureau achieved significant success in forecasting but, largely because of lack of adequate tools, was less successful with tornado warnings (the short term \u201ctake cover now!\u201d messages).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That changed with better-trained storm chasers and spotters, combined with the National Weather Service\u2019s NEXRAD \u2013 a national network of Doppler radars installed in the 1990\u2019s. Those radars and the intense, month-long classroom training required of every meteorologist for their operation, led to unprecedented tornado warning success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Research by Dr. Kevin Simmons demonstrates that 13 to 15 minutes of \u201clead time\u201d (the interval of time from when a tornado warning is issued to when the tornado arrives) is ideal. From 2005 to 2011, National Weather Service tornado warnings averaged 13.3 minutes and tornadoes were detected in advance 73.3% of the time. At that same time, the radars were being \u201cdual-polarized\u201d to allow detection of tornado\u2019s lofted debris for better tracking. Plus, the new generation of GOES weather satellites, the first that could sense lightning rates (which are sometimes very useful in determining in advance which thunderstorms will go severe or tornadic) was in operation. All of this should have resulted in new levels of tornado warning accuracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They did not. The quality of tornado warnings is deteriorating at an alarming rate!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have been tracking this for the last dozen years. I wrote a piece for\u00a0The Washington Post<\/em>\u00a0<\/a>in May, 2021, which documented this trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By then, the tornado warning deterioration was well underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

How have things changed since 2020? \u00a0We don\u2019t know. The NWS\u2019s tornado warning accuracy statistics used to be out in the open. Now, they are behind a login and password.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before going further, allow me to stipulate: some tornadoes are not \u201cwarnable.\u201d This can be because they are brief, because of problems with technology, or because of our incomplete knowledge of tornado science. These are not the focus of my concern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The tragic fact is the Weather Service is missing strong tornadoes that are obvious on radar and, in a few cases, even after they are reported by trusted ground spotters and chasers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The National Weather Service and local emergency management botched the warning of the May 22, 2011, Joplin Tornado which killed 161 people \u2013 by far the worst death toll in the tornado warning era. I researched and wrote a book about it: [link<\/a>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At first, it seemed Joplin was an isolated event. Now, the tornado warning misses are coming at an accelerated rate. And, the NWS is missing tornadoes across the nation, from New Jersey to Colorado and from Texas to Florida. Here are just some of the poorly-warned tornadoes:2021<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n