{"id":267076,"date":"2023-07-12T20:16:36","date_gmt":"2023-07-12T18:16:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267076"},"modified":"2023-07-12T20:16:39","modified_gmt":"2023-07-12T18:16:39","slug":"extreme-weather-attribution-or-just-sharpshooting-in-texas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267076","title":{"rendered":"Extreme Weather Attribution or Just Sharpshooting in Texas?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Charles Rotter<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Look out, folks! There\u2019s a new rodeo in town \u2013 one that goes by the name of \u2018Climate Attribution\u2019. It\u2019s got its sights set on\u00a0every extreme weather event that has ever happened<\/a>, and it\u2019s not shy about taking credit for them either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is the description of an upcoming session at\u00a0AGU23<\/a>, called\u00a0\u201cBridging the Gap from Climate to Extreme Weather: Observations, Theory and Modeling\u201d<\/a>. They\u2019ve got a whole bunch of scientists ready to convince us all how climate change is responsible for just about everything bad under the sun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy: Climate Attribution\u2019s Best Friend<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What tickles me is that these climate attribution studies all seem to be classics example of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. You know, that\u2019s when a sharpshooter shoots at a barn, then draws a target around the closest cluster of bullet holes to boast about his accuracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is precisely what\u2019s happening with these extreme weather attributions. Climate scientists pick out the extreme weather events, paint a target around them, and voila, climate change did it! But what about the regular, run-of-the-mill weather events? Is climate change conveniently on vacation when those happen? If we want to talk about attribution, let\u2019s put everything on the table, not just the extremes that make good headlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The \u201cBridge\u201d to Nowhere<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conference blurb states that it aims to \u201cbridge the gap between climate and extreme weather.\u201d But isn\u2019t this just creating a bridge where no river exists? It seems like a great effort to confirm their biases rather than objectively analyzing the data. And if the bridge does exist, they\u2019ve only built half of it. Where are the studies showing climate change\u2019s influence on mild, sunny days? Or on the perfectly average rainfall?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Climate Physics of Convenient Omission<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This conference promises to delve into \u201cunderlying climate physics\u201d that generate extreme weather events. Now that\u2019s a loaded term if I ever heard one. But let\u2019s be real, physics doesn\u2019t just switch on for hurricanes, tornadoes, and heatwaves. It\u2019s always at work. So, why the selective study? Could it be that regular weather events don\u2019t quite have the same \u2018doom and gloom\u2019 appeal?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hitting the Bullseye or Just Firing Blanks?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conference also promises to explore \u201cthe mechanisms by which their statistics vary across climate states, including global warming.\u201d Now, I\u2019m no statistician, but I know a thing or two about playing with numbers. When you\u2019re only focusing on extreme events and attributing them to climate change, you\u2019re not painting an accurate picture. You\u2019re skewing the data to fit the narrative. It\u2019s like firing a round of blanks and claiming you hit the bullseye.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While they\u2019re at it, maybe these rodeo clowns can figure out why climate change is making EF-3 and stronger tornadoes decline in the US for over five decades. But in case that\u2019s just TOO HARD,\u00a0maybe they can get rid of the evidence<\/a>, because that\u2019s a lot less work and a lot less embarrassing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So folks, as we watch this upcoming conference unfold, let\u2019s not forget to keep a keen eye on where these sharpshooters are drawing their targets. How likely is it that they honestly exploring the influence of climate on weather events across the board, or are they just highlighting the extremes for a round of climate change bingo? And remember, it\u2019s all fun and games until someone starts blaming sunsets on global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For a bit of refreshing sanity, here\u2019s\u00a0Pielke Jr. on the hype over flood attribution:<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/series-what-the-media-wont-tell-you-3b0<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019d love to hear your thoughts. Does this climate attribution remind you more of science or sharpshooting?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

HT\/MM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Look out, folks! There\u2019s a new rodeo in town \u2013 one that goes by the name of \u2018Climate Attribution\u2019. It\u2019s got its sights set on\u00a0every extreme weather event that has ever happened, and it\u2019s not shy about taking credit for them either.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":267085,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818514,691818577],"class_list":{"0":"post-267076","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-extreme-weather","10":"tag-texas","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Wild-West-Saloon-Sign.jpg?fit=1754%2C1240&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-17tG","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":435576,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=435576","url_meta":{"origin":267076,"position":0},"title":"X-Weather 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Washington Post, USAToday, and the New York Times, among others.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/OIG-38.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/OIG-38.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/OIG-38.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/OIG-38.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":228035,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=228035","url_meta":{"origin":267076,"position":2},"title":"Climate Loss and Damage, Legal House of 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Attribution claims are unverifiable, untestable, and rely on the presupposition that climate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0fake-news-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0fake-news-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0fake-news-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0fake-news-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0fake-news-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":284726,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=284726","url_meta":{"origin":267076,"position":4},"title":"Climate Loss and Damage Fails\u00a0Again","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A crucial meeting on climate \"loss and damages\" ahead of COP28 ended in failure Saturday, with countries from the global north and south unable to reach an agreement, according to sources involved in the talks. 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