{"id":267022,"date":"2023-07-12T18:09:45","date_gmt":"2023-07-12T16:09:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267022"},"modified":"2023-07-12T18:09:48","modified_gmt":"2023-07-12T16:09:48","slug":"beware-the-habitual-el-nino-hype","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267022","title":{"rendered":"Beware the habitual El Ni\u00f1o hype"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From netzerowatch<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Dr David Whitehouse, Science Editor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The world is once again in the grip of a semi-regular climate alarm. I\u2019m not referring to the latest onset of the El Ni\u00f1o cycle, declared in action on July 4th by the United Nations, but the amplified rhetoric about the pace and scale of warming temperatures that always accompanies such El Ni\u00f1o periods.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do you remember what happened last time we had a record El Ni\u00f1o in 2015\/16? Global temperatures increased rapidly \u2013 as they do during such an event \u2013 and, according to some, it was full speed ahead to a runaway thermal apocalypse \u2026 until global temperatures started to fall again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the world\u00a0broke global temperature records<\/a>\u00a0for several days, inevitably leading to renewed speculation about the onset of runaway global warming.\u00a0The Guardian<\/a>\u00a0asked if we have entered a more erratic and dangerous phase with the onset of an El Ni\u00f1o event on top of human-made global heating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, not really, or at least not on the basis of the data we have so far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\u00a0global temperature data<\/a>\u00a0which started these claims are of course preliminary and are in any case a mixture of real data and input from models so a note of caution is needed. Nonetheless it is expected that the temperature records will be confirmed in coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The real situation is, as they say, a little more complicated than many of the exaggerated claims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In recent months the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic has been unusual. The Azores High \u2013 a semi-permanent area of high pressure \u2013 was much weaker than normal. To put this into context, for the past decade the Azores High was about or above average at this time of year. This years variation resulted in low wind speeds occurring at the same time as a so-called marine heatwave in the north Atlantic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The lower wind speeds lead to a reduction in the mixing of surface water with the cooler water below, allowing the sea surface temperatures to increase. Another consequence is a reduction in the transport of dust from the Sahara westward over the north Atlantic. Usually Saharan dust reflects solar radiation back into space before it reaches the ocean surface, thereby cooling it. Another contributing factor is the decreasing particulate pollution over the northern hemisphere as the air gets cleaner over Europe and North America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now add all those effects to the multi-decadal fluctuation of north Atlantic circulation and the consequential transport of heat about which we have a very incomplete understanding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then there is the El Ni\u00f1o starting to snake its way across Pacific equatorial waters. All of this is against a backdrop of a global warming trend which, aside from the El Ni\u00f1o, hasn\u2019t shown much of an increase, if at all in almost the past decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So looking at the events of the past few months, and the records broken, you would have to say it\u2019s complicated and best left to a post-El Ni\u00f1o analysis. No such caution for the Met Office and the Guardian however:\u00a0\u201cIf a few decades ago, some people might have thought climate change was a relatively slow-moving phenomenon, we are now witnessing our climate changing at a terrifying rate,\u201d<\/em>\u00a0they quote Prof Peter Stott, who leads the UK Met Office\u2019s climate monitoring and attribution team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the complexity and disparity of recent events I look forward to the Met Office\u2019s post-El Ni\u00f1o analysis of such extreme and rather premature hype.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Feedback: david.whitehouse@netzerowatch.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The world is once again in the grip of a semi-regular climate alarm. I\u2019m not referring to the latest onset of the El Ni\u00f1o cycle, declared in action on July 4th by the United Nations, but the amplified rhetoric about the pace and scale of warming temperatures that always accompanies such El Ni\u00f1o periods.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":267031,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_hide_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_featured_image_duplicate_dismissed":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819287,691821013,691818087,691820673,691821014,691818760],"class_list":["post-267022","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-el-nino-2","tag-global-temperature-data","tag-global-warming","tag-hype","tag-north-atlantic-circulation","tag-united-nations","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-17sO","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":312201,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=312201","url_meta":{"origin":267022,"position":0},"title":"The AP\u2019s Coverage of UN\u2019s \u2018Climate Red Alert\u2019 Is Nothing More Than a Red Herring","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/23\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Associated Press (AP) ran a story claiming that a \u201cred alert\u201d was issued by The United Nations (UN) weather agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which claimed that global temperature in 2023 set new records due to human caused climate change, and expectations that new record high temperatures would\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate propaganda\"","block_context":{"text":"climate propaganda","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-propaganda"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climatecahnge-TA.webp?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climatecahnge-TA.webp?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climatecahnge-TA.webp?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climatecahnge-TA.webp?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climatecahnge-TA.webp?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":446603,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446603","url_meta":{"origin":267022,"position":1},"title":"Super El Nino Coming! 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