{"id":266727,"date":"2023-07-11T13:02:04","date_gmt":"2023-07-11T11:02:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=266727"},"modified":"2023-07-11T13:02:08","modified_gmt":"2023-07-11T11:02:08","slug":"musings-on-forest-fires-fuel-load-dr-ehrlich-and-the-co2fertilization-effect-upon-u-s-forests","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=266727","title":{"rendered":"Musings on Forest Fires, Fuel Load, Dr. Ehrlich and the CO2Fertilization Effect Upon U. S. Forests"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Don Healy, July 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the past two decades we have witnessed a upturn in the number of acres of forest lands burned in the United States.\u00a0 As shown in the graph below compiled by the National Interagency Fire Center, the years from 1958 to 1998 marked a consistently lower incidence of forest fires, averaging about 4 million acres burned per year.\u00a0 In the years since 1998 the number of acres burned has increased with two years equaling or exceeding 10 million acres. Aside from the catastrophic loss of timber resources, homes, structures and in some cases entire towns, the resultant smoke from these fires has created very hazardous air quality issues over broad swathes of the American West.\u00a0 In an ominous start to the 2023 fire season, fires in Eastern Canada have been so extensive as to impact much of the Eastern U.S. with dangerous air quality.\u00a0 There has been much handwringing, but thus far little motivation to seriously address this problem.\u00a0 The time has come to act, but the first step is to identify the root of the problem.\u00a0 Please take a moment to study the graph below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Fig. 1<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

You will notice that during the years from 1926 to about 1956 forest fires were a much bigger issue virtually all years, showing more acres burned in all, with two years experiencing more than 5 times greater areas than the worst recent year.\u00a0 To put this in perspective, earlier in our history dense forests were viewed as an impediment to settlement and development in much of the west and there was little concern if vast acreages were burned so long as humans and settlements weren\u2019t impacted.\u00a0 To many of our earlier citizens periods of heavy smoke commonly prevalent were viewed as \u201cthe price of progress\u201d. It wasn\u2019t until the mid-1930s that the recently formed U.S. Forest Service became active in suppressing forest fires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is the common denominator between the numbers on the right side of the chart versus those on the left side, separated by the relatively benign period between 1956 and 1998?\u00a0 As my forestry professor told us during Forest Protection class in 1965, the three most important factors in preventing forest fires were \u201cfuel load, fuel load and fuel load, in that order\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Prior to the 1950s, extending back millennia, fuel loads in the western U.S. were massive.\u00a0 The anecdotal records from the early Spanish and British explorations of the Pacific Northwest indicate dense smoke from massive forest fires extending well out into the Pacific, and a record of Mark Twain\u2019s visit to Tacoma Washington, in 1895 describes the city fathers apologizing to Mr. Twain for the heavy forest fire smoke that obscured the view of the surrounding mountains.\u00a0 The reality is that the period from the early 1950s to just a few years ago was probably a \u201cgoldilocks\u201d event, one of the few periods when large fires and heavy smoke were not a common experience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In conversations with many fellow citizens, it is my perception that most are quite convinced that the United States has less forested area and less wood volume currently than it did decades ago.  However, the U.S. Forest Service takes a complete inventory of all United States forest resources on all ownerships on a regular basis that belie that notion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Year<\/strong><\/td>1953<\/strong><\/td>1963<\/strong><\/td>1977<\/strong><\/td>1987<\/strong><\/td>1997<\/strong><\/td>2007<\/strong><\/td>2012<\/strong><\/td>2017<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Acres<\/strong><\/td>741,652<\/td>752,786<\/td>742,345<\/td>732,553<\/td>741,937<\/td>752,272<\/td>766,234<\/td>765,493<\/td><\/tr>
Volume<\/strong><\/td>615,884<\/td> <\/td>733,056<\/td>781,655<\/td>835,665<\/td>932,089<\/td> <\/td>985,238<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>
Fig. 2<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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Row 2: Thousands of Acres of Forested Land in U.S., Table 3.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


Row 3: Volume of Growing Stock in U.S. in Millions of Cubic Feet; Table 20<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 From: Forest Resources of the United States, 2017:\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.fs.usda.gov\/research\/treesearch\/57903<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Between 1953 and 2017 the acreage of forested land in the U.S. increased by 3.2%, while the volume of growing stock, fuel load, increased by 60%.\u00a0 Due to the actions of environmental groups, harvesting on federal lands essentially ceased in about 1980, resulting in the shuttering of most of our forest products industry.\u00a0 However, the trees continued to grow during the past 43 years and with increased competition has led to areas of stagnation and the resultant insect and disease problems that occur in a natural environment; problems that had been reduced prior to the suspension of selective harvest silvicultural programs that reduced these issues and fuel load.\u00a0 Not only has the fuel load increased dramatically on federally controlled forested areas, but the susceptibility to fire has also increased disproportionately, leading to the uptick in acres burned that we see on the right side of the graph in Figure 1.\u00a0 If we continue to do nothing to reduce fuel load it is only reasonable to conclude that on average the number of acres burned annually will on average increase until we reach the numbers shown on the left side of the graph in figure 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In many news reports regarding recent forest fires much of the blame is placed on global warming. Mankind\u2019s addition of CO2 and other greenhouse gases does play a role in the fire issue, but I believe that a serious review of the empirical evidence will reveal that global warming thus far is a relatively minor player. The graph in Figure 3 is very accurate, but the proportion is out of scale to the human experience. This information comes from the NASA sponsored work Drs. Spencer and Christy, University of Huntsville, Alabama, using satellites to take millions of atmospheric soundings daily is probably the most accurate global. temperature record<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Fig. 3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

available. The trend for the 43 years of this record is .13 degrees per decade, which would equate to 1-degree centigrade above today\u2019s global temperature in the year 2100.\u00a0 Yes, a slight increase but nothing like the predictions generated by recent climate models upon which the IPCC relies for their predictions, many of which run 3 times hotter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 4. Data from same source as Figure 3, but displayed on scale more typical to the human experience using the highest and lowest known temperatures recorded on earth as the upper and lower bounds..<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Fig. 4<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The graph in Figure 5 shows data from the USCRN.\u00a0 This is the best surface station record available.\u00a0 Unfortunately, it was not installed until 2005 and only covers the United States and shows no discernable trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Fig. 5<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graph created by the United States Climate Research Network (USCRN).\u00a0 This information is obtained from state-of-the-art weather stations in the United States. The sites are excellently situated to avoid urban heat island effects and other undo influences with instruments that provide triple redundancy.\u00a0 This network was created in 2005 after much criticism about the prior U.S. Historical Climate Network which had all manner of deficiencies with only about 11% to its stations meeting NOAA standards.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We do know empirically that increasing CO2 levels will raise temperature modestly.\u00a0 In lab experiments a doubling of CO2 levels from 280 ppm to 560 ppm will raise temperate about 1-degree Centigrade.\u00a0 The next doubling would raise temperature even less as the absorption spectra quickly becomes saturated. So the actual temperature increase due to greenhouse gases is proving to be relatively minimal. \u00a0A far more important effect, especially from the aspect of the fuel load situation in our nation\u2019s forests is that of the CO2 fertilization effect \u00a0(CFE) on all vegetative growth, plants, crops and certainly trees.\u00a0 We shall delve more deeply into this aspect shortly, but a little historical perspective is necessary first.\u00a0 When coniferous trees evolved about 360 million years ago, CO2 levels were about 4000 ppm (parts per million), 9 times today\u2019s levels.\u00a0 When deciduous trees, broadleaves evolved about 160 million years ago CO2 levels were about 2200 ppm.\u00a0 The thousands of botanical experiments to study the effect of elevated CO2 on crops, trees, grasses, and other vegetative forms indicate that 800 to 1000 ppm CO2 is the optimum level for most species.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not only does CO2 fertilization produce more growth, but it also increases the drought resistance of most plants.\u00a0 Additionally, since the stomata, the pores on the leaves through which the CO2 enters the leaf to allow photosynthesis to take place do not need to remain open as long to allow CO2 to enter, less transpiration of water takes place and the plants become more drought resistant.\u00a0 Thus, plants grow more rapidly and require less soil moisture for the same unit of growth. These two issues, CO2 fertilization and increased drought resistance are two important factors in accelerating the increase in fuel load that have yet to receive much media coverage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When dealing with critical issues such as the appropriate response to our nation\u2019s forest fire issue we need to be totally pragmatic about the thought process that goes into formulating a rational response.  We can continue to put the blame on the global warming issue, but the harsh reality is that the U.S. has already done a great deal to reduce our carbon emissions.  However, China, India and many lesser developed countries are going in the opposite direction.  Both China and India are continuing to build new coal-fired power plants and have no plans to stop this expansion until mid-century at the earliest. CO2 levels in the atmosphere will continue to rise at current rates for the foreseeable future.  However, our nation can take immediate action to reduce the fuel load problem, but we need to get started.<\/strong>  It will take a multi-pronged approach to work involving:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  1. Education of the public in the necessity of reducing our fuel loads and the ways in which we can do this in an environmentally friendly fashion.\u00a0 The public needs to be made aware of:\n