{"id":266272,"date":"2023-07-09T11:51:36","date_gmt":"2023-07-09T09:51:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=266272"},"modified":"2023-07-09T11:51:46","modified_gmt":"2023-07-09T09:51:46","slug":"save-the-drama-for-your-llama-not-the-climate-a-dystopian-tale-15-years-in-the-making","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=266272","title":{"rendered":"Save the Drama for Your Llama, Not the Climate: A Dystopian Tale 15 Years in the Making"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n


<\/a>Let\u2019s sprinkle a dash of humor onto your daily helping of apocalypse stew. I\u2019ve just read Ben Turner\u2019s article, \u201cCatastrophic climate \u2018doom loops\u2019 could start in just 15 years, new study warns\u201d and boy, I thought we had at least 16 years left! Cue ominous thunderclap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As our dear friend Turner writes,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cAccording to the research, more than a fifth of the world\u2019s potentially catastrophic tipping points \u2014 such as the melting of the Arctic permafrost, the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet and the sudden transformation of the Amazon rainforest into savanna \u2014 could occur as soon as 2038.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.livescience.com\/planet-earth\/climate-change\/catastrophic-climate-doom-loops-could-start-in-just-15-years-new-study-warns<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Catastrophic tipping points? 2038? Did we just open a dystopian novel or is this reality?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The science behind these \u201ctipping points\u201d is apparently, as Turner writes,<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u201cpoorly understood and often based on oversimplified models.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.livescience.com\/planet-earth\/climate-change\/catastrophic-climate-doom-loops-could-start-in-just-15-years-new-study-warns<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If my lifelong experience of assembling IKEA furniture has taught me anything, it\u2019s that oversimplification and poor understanding often lead to, well, collapses. You could call them \u201ccatastrophic furniture tipping points,\u201d if you like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And apparently,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cunlike the well-established link between the burning of fossil fuels and climate change, the study of tipping points is a young and contentious science.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.livescience.com\/planet-earth\/climate-change\/catastrophic-climate-doom-loops-could-start-in-just-15-years-new-study-warns<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

As young and contentious as my neighbor\u2019s teenage son who just got his first electric guitar, it seems. Oh, how we love to argue with nascent phenomena, whether it\u2019s ear-piercing music or ecological doom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cBut if these simulations miss an important element or interaction, their forecasts can land decades off the mark. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the United Nations\u2019 most important body for evaluating climate science) said in its most recent report that the Amazon rainforest could reach a tipping point that will transform it into a savannah by 2100.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.livescience.com\/planet-earth\/climate-change\/catastrophic-climate-doom-loops-could-start-in-just-15-years-new-study-warns<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

I suppose one can only be so precise when modelling the collapse of civilization. Or at least as precise as a dart game after a few drinks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Turner writes,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cAfter testing their systems across multiple modes \u2014 with just one cause of collapse acting, with multiple causes acting and with all of the causes plus the introduction of random noise to mimic fluctuations in climate variables \u2014 the scientists made some troubling findings: multiple causes of collapse acting together brought the abrupt transformation of some systems up to 80% closer to the present day.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.livescience.com\/planet-earth\/climate-change\/catastrophic-climate-doom-loops-could-start-in-just-15-years-new-study-warns<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Oh, we do love our speculative modeling drama, don\u2019t we? I mean, if you\u2019re going to simulate the end of the world, why not turn it up to 11?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, co-author Gregory Cooper says that their findings<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cshow the potential for each to reinforce the other. Any increasing pressure on ecosystems will be exceedingly detrimental and could have dangerous consequences.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.livescience.com\/planet-earth\/climate-change\/catastrophic-climate-doom-loops-could-start-in-just-15-years-new-study-warns<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Ah, the grand finale. Cooper, you\u2019ve missed your calling as a thriller writer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Environmental problems exist, but maybe, just maybe, instead of ringing the doomsday bell at a deafening volume, we should work on solving the problems we can see right now. You know, like my neighbor\u2019s son who\u2019s decided to play a guitar solo at 2 am. Let\u2019s face it, that\u2019s a real and imminent catastrophe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

HT\/strativarius<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Let\u2019s sprinkle a dash of humor onto your daily helping of apocalypse stew. I\u2019ve just read Ben Turner\u2019s article, \u201cCatastrophic climate \u2018doom loops\u2019 could start in just 15 years, new study warns\u201d and boy, I thought we had at least 16 years left! Cue ominous thunderclap.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":266277,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691820936,691819178,691818056,691818090,691820106],"class_list":{"0":"post-266272","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-apocalypse","9":"tag-climate-catastrophe-prediction","10":"tag-climate-change","11":"tag-climate-warning","12":"tag-tipping-points","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0city-stock4368.jpg?fit=1600%2C1000&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-17gI","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":318533,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=318533","url_meta":{"origin":266272,"position":0},"title":"The Spectator is Right, Climate Alarmist Messaging is Harming People","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/04\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent editorial in The Spectator claims that alarmist messaging like warnings of impending doom by climate activists and the United Nations are hyperbolic and even harmful. This is true. Data show that there is no catastrophe in store for humanity due to climate change, and studies show alarmist messaging\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmist\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmist","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmist"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Climate-change-is-ushering-in-_global-boil_-with-temperatures-and-power-costs-rising.webp?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Climate-change-is-ushering-in-_global-boil_-with-temperatures-and-power-costs-rising.webp?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Climate-change-is-ushering-in-_global-boil_-with-temperatures-and-power-costs-rising.webp?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Climate-change-is-ushering-in-_global-boil_-with-temperatures-and-power-costs-rising.webp?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Climate-change-is-ushering-in-_global-boil_-with-temperatures-and-power-costs-rising.webp?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":402751,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=402751","url_meta":{"origin":266272,"position":1},"title":"Aussie Government Publishes Climate Apocalypse Report And Approves a Gas Lease Extension in the Same Week","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"If the government believed their own report, why would they be simultaneously predicting climate apocalypse and boosting the fossil fuel export market?","rel":"","context":"In \"Australia\"","block_context":{"text":"Australia","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=australia"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQNIeYGS-VL_dmAk5KNLt7wXXq4j7nzqmwRnAcumArbi7V4OzXIbx7YMejjhWiYyLNLJ0KnsyjoBloGaiObmm_oU8cMmTSjWV_POWvFkXptns35S8SnoCM0C2OZ6ya_Cmn5ycyOS8P0_UG_uR7VRrfQ0WDV2Tg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQNIeYGS-VL_dmAk5KNLt7wXXq4j7nzqmwRnAcumArbi7V4OzXIbx7YMejjhWiYyLNLJ0KnsyjoBloGaiObmm_oU8cMmTSjWV_POWvFkXptns35S8SnoCM0C2OZ6ya_Cmn5ycyOS8P0_UG_uR7VRrfQ0WDV2Tg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQNIeYGS-VL_dmAk5KNLt7wXXq4j7nzqmwRnAcumArbi7V4OzXIbx7YMejjhWiYyLNLJ0KnsyjoBloGaiObmm_oU8cMmTSjWV_POWvFkXptns35S8SnoCM0C2OZ6ya_Cmn5ycyOS8P0_UG_uR7VRrfQ0WDV2Tg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQNIeYGS-VL_dmAk5KNLt7wXXq4j7nzqmwRnAcumArbi7V4OzXIbx7YMejjhWiYyLNLJ0KnsyjoBloGaiObmm_oU8cMmTSjWV_POWvFkXptns35S8SnoCM0C2OZ6ya_Cmn5ycyOS8P0_UG_uR7VRrfQ0WDV2Tg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQNIeYGS-VL_dmAk5KNLt7wXXq4j7nzqmwRnAcumArbi7V4OzXIbx7YMejjhWiYyLNLJ0KnsyjoBloGaiObmm_oU8cMmTSjWV_POWvFkXptns35S8SnoCM0C2OZ6ya_Cmn5ycyOS8P0_UG_uR7VRrfQ0WDV2Tg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":231421,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=231421","url_meta":{"origin":266272,"position":2},"title":"Tony Robinson: Make the Climate Apocalypse Fun? Speaking at the Launch of \u201cFloodland\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/11\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Actor Sir Tony Robinson, who played the downtrodden henchman Baldrick in the British dark comedy series Blackadder, has criticised doom and gloom at the launch of a climate apocalypse computer\u00a0game.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-966.png?fit=800%2C400&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-966.png?fit=800%2C400&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-966.png?fit=800%2C400&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-966.png?fit=800%2C400&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":256593,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=256593","url_meta":{"origin":266272,"position":3},"title":"King Charles III Has a Climate Record to Live Down","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Climate alarmism with an end date is asking for trouble, to say the least. 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Like a horror movie franchise that refuses to die, the idea that the Gulf Stream is about to shut down and plunge Europe into an icy apocalypse has returned. 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