{"id":266106,"date":"2023-07-08T16:41:44","date_gmt":"2023-07-08T14:41:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=266106"},"modified":"2023-07-08T16:41:47","modified_gmt":"2023-07-08T14:41:47","slug":"fossil-and-non-fossil-fuels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=266106","title":{"rendered":"Fossil and Non-Fossil Fuels"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In my previous post, The Myth Of Replacing Fossil Fuels, I looked at the new BP global use of fossil and non-fossil fuels. In this post, I\u2019ll take a more detailed look at individual countries, and then return to world values. To start with, here\u2019s what I learned along the way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1. Population by Country<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given that, let me look at the energy usage by source of the most populous countries. You may recall from my previous post that in many analyses they use what are called \u201cinput-equivalent\u201d values for non-fossil fuels. These are the true values multiplied by 2.5 or more. Why use those? I\u2019ll repeat BP\u2019s explanation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

While there are indeed uses for those artificially inflated energy values, what they don\u2019t do is show us just how much energy is actually coming from each source. So let me go through the biggest countries, showing the true energy usage by source. We\u2019ll start with China, although by the very latest figures, India is now the most populous country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 2 et sequelae. Energy usage by source, year, and country.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

China has pledged that its CO2 emissions will peak by 2030 \u2026 not seeing it. An oddity is that the 2020 drop in energy usage seen in most countries is delayed in China until the most recent year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China uses 8% non-fossil energy, most of which is hydroelectric. Solar\/wind are 2.8% \u2026 not gonna overtake fossil fuels any time soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note that Chinese usage of oil, gas, and coal are all increasing \u2026 next, here\u2019s India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Here, we see the same gas, oil, and coal situation we see in China\u2014they\u2019re all increasing. Note the drop from COVID in 2020. India uses about half the non-fossil and solar\/wind energy that China uses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next, the US. It is quite different in some regards, and similar in others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The total energy use in the US plateaued in about 2005. You\u2019d think this would be good news in terms of CO2. But it\u2019s not. It just reflects the fact that due to increasing energy prices in the US from our crazy war on fossil fuels, a lot of energy-intensive industry has moved overseas, mostly to Asia and Mexico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note also that we still only use 9% non-fossil energy, and the largest part of that is nuclear. Solar plus wind is a mere 2.4% \u2026 and we\u2019ve spent something over a trillion dollars for that pathetic contribution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next in population, to my surprise, are Indonesia and Pakistan. Who knew? Here\u2019s Indonesia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

You can see that like China and India, total fossil use is rising. The largest contribution to the rise is from coal. They have less than .1% wind or solar. Their major non-fossil fuel is palm oil, which is blended to make biodiesel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then we have Pakistan. Wind and solar are tiny, 0.6% The majority of their non-fossil fuel is hydro, plus a small amount of nuclear energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Next in population size is Brazil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Brazil uses a lot of non-fossil fuel, 29%. But like the other countries, wind and solar is a trivial amount. Brazil does it with biofuel from its ample sugar cane fields, plus hydro. But even with all of that, it still is heavily dependent on fossil fuels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BP doesn\u2019t have any data for Nigeria, so let me finish off this run with the next most populous country, Bangladesh. It basically runs on fossil fuel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

With those countries as examples of our overwhelming dependence on fossil fuels, let\u2019s take a look at the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 3. As in individual country graphs above, but for the entire planet.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like the largest countries, the world runs on fossil fuels. Non-fossil is only 8%, and globally, solar plus wind is only 2.1 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Breaking this down a bit, here are the global individual usages of oil, gas, and coal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 4. Usage of energy from oil coal, and gas.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite rumors of its demise, coal use is still increasing, as is the use of oil and gas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, when I point this out, people often say something like\u00a0\u201cBut the usage of non-fossil fuels is increasing exponentially! Just wait a few years!\u201d<\/em>. But the growth hasn\u2019t been truly exponential, it\u2019s better described as quadratic. However, out to the year 2050 the differences are trivial, and the fit to quadratic in the period since 2000 is far better than the exponential fit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So let\u2019s pretend that the non-fossil use continues to increase at an essentially-exponential (quadratic) rate. It won\u2019t, of course\u2014in the real world such accelerating growth never lasts. But we can pretend, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So here\u2019s what accelerating quadratic growth of non-fossil fuels at the current rate looks like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 5. Quadratic growth of non-fossil fuels, extended to 2050. An exponential best-fit growth ends up with the same value and is only slightly different along the way. However, exponential is a very poor fit for the 2000-2022 period, and as you can see, quadratic acceleration is a very good fit for that period.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zowie! The non-fossil fuels are going through the roof, and if the growth continues, non-fossil use will have increased greatly by the year 2050. Heck, in that short time from now, it will more than double! What\u2019s not to like?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well \u2026 here\u2019s the projected increasing non-fossil growth compared to projected possible linear growth in fossil fuel use.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 6. As in Figure 5, but including a linear projection of fossil fuel use.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once again, a sense of proportion greatly improves our understanding of the issues. Even with accelerated growth, either exponential or quadratic, non-fossil fuels are still a long, long way from overtaking fossil fuel use. Heck, that\u2019s true even if fossil use were to go flat tomorrow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, people saying \u201cJust End Oil\u201d and people fighting against fossil use are hard up against the First Rule of Wingwalking. This rule states:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDon\u2019t let go of what you\u2019ve got until you get hold of something better.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the truth is that right now, despite spending literally trillions of dollars on non-fossil energy, we\u2019re still a long, long way from having something better than fossil fuels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, any actions we take to make fossil energy more expensive or more difficult to obtain are actively destructive, especially to the poor. The politicians, the alarmist climate scientists, and the pluted bloatocrats don\u2019t care when gas prices go up. But you can bet that single moms working to feed their kids definitely care, and they are already cursing the \u201cJust Stop Oil\u201d folks and their allies just as I am.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

With that as my main message, let\u2019s look at a few other interesting countries. Norway and Iceland are often touted as pathfinders for renewable energy, so here are their graphs. First, Norway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Norway gets almost half of its energy from non-fossil sources. How? Hydroelectric. It\u2019s worth noting, however, that very little hydro has been added since 1990 or so, and the difference has been made up with gas \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And here\u2019s Iceland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Iceland, uniquely among countries, has lots of volcanoes with red-hot magma near the surface. This gives it a huge geothermal resource that is easy to access. And that, plus ample hydroelectric energy, means that they get two-thirds of their energy from non-fossil sources without any wind or solar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conclusion is simple. All we need to do is provide every country in the world with lots of mountains, plenty of rain, a bunch of volcanoes with shallow magma, and no \u201cgreens\u201d blocking the construction of new dams, and we can all run on hydro and geothermal!<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Actually, there\u2019s another way to get a high percentage of non-fossil energy. Just make your energy so expensive that you give up on any energy-intensive industries or activities, and meanwhile, pay through the nose for expensive wind energy. Here\u2019s the poster child for that approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Let me close with an oddity that shows the intimate connection between energy use and human well-being. You\u2019ve likely watched over the last few years as the Venezuelan socialists destroyed the economy of their country. Here\u2019s the record of Venezuelan energy use.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As I discussed in \u201cThe Unsocial Reality Of Socialism<\/a>\u201c, that pernicious economic lunacy destroys whatever it touches \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In closing, never forget\u2014your life is not short, sickly, cold, and brutal for a simple reason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fossil fuels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

My very best regards to everyone,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yeah, I know, you\u2019ve heard it before:\u00a0<\/strong>When you comment please\u00a0quote the exact words<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0you are discussing. I\u2019m tired of people asking me to defend something I never said. Thanks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In my previous post, The Myth Of Replacing Fossil Fuels, I looked at the new BP global use of fossil and non-fossil fuels. In this post, I\u2019ll take a more detailed look at individual countries, and then return to world values. To start with, here\u2019s what I learned along the way.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":266141,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691820924,691818076,691818228,691820923,691820926],"class_list":{"0":"post-266106","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-bp-global","9":"tag-co2","10":"tag-fossil-fuels","11":"tag-myth-of-replacing","12":"tag-non-fossil-fuels","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-235.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-17e2","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":206222,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=206222","url_meta":{"origin":266106,"position":0},"title":"2022 Update: Fossil Fuels \u2260 Global Warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/06\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Previous posts addressed the claim that fossil fuels are driving global warming. This post updates that analysis with the latest (2021) numbers from BP Statistics and compares World Fossil Fuel Consumption (WFFC) with three estimates of Global Mean Temperature (GMT). More on both these variables below. WFFC 2021 statistics are\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0fotolia_25508073_subscription_xl.webp?fit=1000%2C405&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0fotolia_25508073_subscription_xl.webp?fit=1000%2C405&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0fotolia_25508073_subscription_xl.webp?fit=1000%2C405&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0fotolia_25508073_subscription_xl.webp?fit=1000%2C405&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":249099,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=249099","url_meta":{"origin":266106,"position":1},"title":"World Energy Data Confirms Fossil Fuels Will Dominate Future Global Energy Use","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/03\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The\u00a0government leaders of the U.S., EU and UK can\u2019t seem to\u00a0bring themselves to\u00a0acknowledge that global energy outcomes regarding the world\u2019s future energy growth, fuel use as well as emissions growth is out of their control and has been for years.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-926.png?fit=1200%2C549&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-926.png?fit=1200%2C549&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-926.png?fit=1200%2C549&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-926.png?fit=1200%2C549&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-926.png?fit=1200%2C549&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":265268,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=265268","url_meta":{"origin":266106,"position":2},"title":"The Myth Of Replacing Fossil Fuels","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Next, his \u201cnon-fossil sources\u201d (hydro, nuclear, wind, biofuels, solar, geothermal, other) only total 7.5% of total energy, not 18%.","rel":"","context":"In \"BP\"","block_context":{"text":"BP","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bp"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0shutterstock_485230399.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0shutterstock_485230399.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0shutterstock_485230399.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0shutterstock_485230399.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0shutterstock_485230399.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":266005,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=266005","url_meta":{"origin":266106,"position":3},"title":"2023 Update: Fossil Fuels \u2260 Global\u00a0Warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The climate alarmist\/activist claim is straight forward: Burning fossil fuels makes measured temperatures warmer. The Paris Accord further asserts that by reducing human use of fossil fuels, further warming can be prevented. \u00a0","rel":"","context":"In \"BP\"","block_context":{"text":"BP","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bp"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Evidence-Main.jpeg?fit=1200%2C983&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Evidence-Main.jpeg?fit=1200%2C983&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Evidence-Main.jpeg?fit=1200%2C983&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Evidence-Main.jpeg?fit=1200%2C983&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Evidence-Main.jpeg?fit=1200%2C983&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":242842,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=242842","url_meta":{"origin":266106,"position":4},"title":"BP to cut back on green shift amid booming demand for fossil fuels","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/02\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Money talks, as they say! Renewables were only ever attractive to the likes of BP, because of all the subsidies that went with it.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-71.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-71.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-71.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-71.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-71.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":244195,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=244195","url_meta":{"origin":266106,"position":5},"title":"We Will Still Need Fossil Fuels In 2050\u2013AEP\u2019s U-Turn","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"18\/02\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"As the IEA projections above make clear, we may still be needing almost as much oil as we do now in 2050.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-407.png?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-407.png?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-407.png?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-407.png?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-407.png?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266106","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=266106"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266106\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":266142,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266106\/revisions\/266142"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/266141"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=266106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=266106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=266106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}