{"id":266025,"date":"2023-07-08T13:14:43","date_gmt":"2023-07-08T11:14:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=266025"},"modified":"2023-07-08T13:14:55","modified_gmt":"2023-07-08T11:14:55","slug":"new-study-reveals-abrupt-shift-in-tropical-pacific-climate-during-little-ice-age","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=266025","title":{"rendered":"New study reveals abrupt shift in tropical Pacific climate during Little Ice\u00a0Age"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"380\" data-attachment-id=\"266030\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=266030\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/00Little-Ice-Age.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1200,630\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"00Little-Ice-Age\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/00Little-Ice-Age.jpg?fit=723%2C380&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/00Little-Ice-Age.jpg?resize=723%2C380&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-266030\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/00Little-Ice-Age.jpg?resize=1024%2C538&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/00Little-Ice-Age.jpg?resize=300%2C158&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/00Little-Ice-Age.jpg?resize=768%2C403&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/00Little-Ice-Age.jpg?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/tallbloke.wordpress.com\/\">Tallbloke&#8217;s Talkshop<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">July 4, 2023 by\u00a0<strong>oldbrew<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"650\" height=\"1024\" data-attachment-id=\"266028\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=266028\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0el-nino-explainer.webp?fit=1200%2C1890&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1200,1890\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0el-nino-explainer\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0el-nino-explainer.webp?fit=650%2C1024&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0el-nino-explainer-650x1024.webp?resize=650%2C1024&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-266028\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0el-nino-explainer.webp?resize=650%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 650w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0el-nino-explainer.webp?resize=190%2C300&amp;ssl=1 190w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0el-nino-explainer.webp?resize=768%2C1210&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0el-nino-explainer.webp?resize=975%2C1536&amp;ssl=1 975w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0el-nino-explainer.webp?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Evidence that what is today called \u201aclimate change\u2018 can naturally occur, and has occurred, over a relatively short timescale \u2013 described here as \u201aremarkable\u2018. Maybe history is trying to tell us future climate conditions are more unpredictable than advocates of IPCC doctrines would have us believe.<\/em><br>\u2013 \u2013 \u2013<br>An El Ni\u00f1o event has officially begun,\u00a0<em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedaily.com\/releases\/2023\/07\/230703133053.htm\">says Science Daily<\/a>.<\/em>The climate phenomenon, which originates in the tropical Pacific and occurs in intervals of a few years will shape weather across the planet for the next year or more and give rise to various climatic extremes. El Ni\u00f1o-like conditions can also occur on longer time scales of decades or centuries. This has been shown to have occurred in the recent past by an international research team led by Ana Prohaska of the University of Copenhagen and Dirk Sachse of the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ).Their analysis of biomarkers \u2014 organic molecules or molecular fossils from vascular plants \u2014 in the sediments of a lake in the Philippines indicates an unusually dry phase in the region during the Little Ice Age between 1600 and 1900 A.D.The results have now been published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment. They show how important the understanding of past dynamics of the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere climate is for the improvement of climate models and the prediction of future climate changes.<br>. . .<br><strong>El Ni\u00f1o-like phenomena on longer time scales<\/strong>While El Ni\u00f1o is an interannual climate phenomenon, the climate system of the tropical Pacific can also exhibit El Ni\u00f1o-like behaviour on longer time scales of decades and centuries, which is linked to the east-west gradient of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific.Such behaviour has been shown to have transpired in the recent past by a team led by Ana Prohaska, assistant professor at the University of Copenhagen and formerly a visiting scientist at the GFZ, and Dirk Sachse, working group leader in GFZ Section 4.6 \u201eGeomorphology\u201c and director of Topic 5 \u201eLandscapes of the Future\u201c of the Helmholtz research programme \u201eChanging Earth \u2014 Sustaining our Future,\u201c in the journal Communications Earth and Environment.They describe such a pronounced shift to El Ni\u00f1o-like conditions in the second half of the Little Ice Age, lasting from about 1630 to 1900 A.D.What is particularly remarkable is the short period of only one generation within which conditions changed for a period of more than 200 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Full article\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedaily.com\/releases\/2023\/07\/230703133053.htm\">here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Evidence that what is today called \u201aclimate change\u2018 can naturally occur, and has occurred, over a relatively short timescale \u2013 described here as \u201aremarkable\u2018. Maybe history is trying to tell us future climate conditions are more unpredictable than advocates of IPCC doctrines would have us believe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":266030,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691819287,691820909],"class_list":["post-266025","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-change","tag-el-nino-2","tag-ipcc-doctrines","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/00Little-Ice-Age.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-17cJ","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":337086,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=337086","url_meta":{"origin":266025,"position":0},"title":"Intro to Climate\u00a0Fallacies","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/20\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In GCMs, the equilibrium climate sensitivity is an \u2018emergent property\u2019 that is not directly calibrated or tuned.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":442640,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=442640","url_meta":{"origin":266025,"position":1},"title":"No, USA Today, \u2018Day After Tomorrow\u2019 AMOC Collapse Isn\u2019t Happening","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/05\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"USA Today claims in \u201cInfamous disaster scenario can rapidly unfold, study finds\u201d that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, could rapidly collapse in a scenario reminiscent of the movie The Day After Tomorrow. This is false. The article leans on cinematic fear imagery and speculative modeling rather than observational\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"American Meteorological Society (AMS)\"","block_context":{"text":"American Meteorological Society (AMS)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=american-meteorological-society-ams"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-No-USA-Today-%E2%80%98Day-After-Tomorrow-AMOC-Collapse-Isnt-Happening.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-No-USA-Today-%E2%80%98Day-After-Tomorrow-AMOC-Collapse-Isnt-Happening.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-No-USA-Today-%E2%80%98Day-After-Tomorrow-AMOC-Collapse-Isnt-Happening.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-No-USA-Today-%E2%80%98Day-After-Tomorrow-AMOC-Collapse-Isnt-Happening.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-No-USA-Today-%E2%80%98Day-After-Tomorrow-AMOC-Collapse-Isnt-Happening.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":408592,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=408592","url_meta":{"origin":266025,"position":2},"title":"Bunk from the Brink","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/16\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Over at\u00a0The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler and Zeke Hausfather have taken on the role of self-appointed sheriffs of climate science, at times in highly partisan and personal terms. Recently, Dessler, along with another scientist, Robert Kopp, and dozens of others, prepared a lengthy response to the Department of Energy\u2019s Climate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQN5oo6H0pzqoqjDivkTNeqzqaMiK1JN4Wv7q8P2j3tFyznYHVOoyyqNNqWvXVDQoPvSCwU5IHyK30LzgQiCly8PHsALomMd0Niou0VRiL0824Ep-GY-zT9toMRhEOmGWanPBNrHEddBpV7sU-2g0hbf3PQiw.png?fit=675%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQN5oo6H0pzqoqjDivkTNeqzqaMiK1JN4Wv7q8P2j3tFyznYHVOoyyqNNqWvXVDQoPvSCwU5IHyK30LzgQiCly8PHsALomMd0Niou0VRiL0824Ep-GY-zT9toMRhEOmGWanPBNrHEddBpV7sU-2g0hbf3PQiw.png?fit=675%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQN5oo6H0pzqoqjDivkTNeqzqaMiK1JN4Wv7q8P2j3tFyznYHVOoyyqNNqWvXVDQoPvSCwU5IHyK30LzgQiCly8PHsALomMd0Niou0VRiL0824Ep-GY-zT9toMRhEOmGWanPBNrHEddBpV7sU-2g0hbf3PQiw.png?fit=675%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":385343,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=385343","url_meta":{"origin":266025,"position":3},"title":"Scafetta: Climate Models Have\u00a0Issues","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/27\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) global climate models\u00a0(GCMs) assess\u00a0that nearly\u00a0100% of global surface warming\u00a0observed\u00a0between 1850\u20131900 and 2011\u20132020 is attributable to\u00a0anthropogenic drivers like\u00a0greenhouse gas emissions.\u00a0These models\u00a0also generate future climate projections based on shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), aiding in risk assessment and the development of costly \u201cNet-Zero\u201d climate mitigation strategies.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":253560,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=253560","url_meta":{"origin":266025,"position":4},"title":"No, Washington Post, Tax Season is Not Getting Longer Due to \u2018Climate Change\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/18\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Washington Post\u00a0(WaPo) ran a story on April 17, 2023, titled \u201cTax season is getting longer. Blame climate change.\u201d Not only is the story written by\u00a0Jacob Bogage\u00a0flat out wrong, it is patently absurd.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-367.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-367.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-367.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-367.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":245453,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=245453","url_meta":{"origin":266025,"position":5},"title":"Holocene CO2 and the earlier IPCC Reports","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/25\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201c\u2026Holocene \u2026 [is not] considered [a reliable analogue] for a climate with increased concentration of greenhouse gases.\u201d(FAR, page 158-159).","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-763.png?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-763.png?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-763.png?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-763.png?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-763.png?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266025","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=266025"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266025\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":266032,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266025\/revisions\/266032"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/266030"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=266025"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=266025"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=266025"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}