{"id":265819,"date":"2023-07-06T20:17:28","date_gmt":"2023-07-06T18:17:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=265819"},"modified":"2023-07-06T20:17:31","modified_gmt":"2023-07-06T18:17:31","slug":"peak-renewables-reality-bites-as-grand-wind-solar-transition-unravels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=265819","title":{"rendered":"Peak Renewables: Reality Bites As Grand Wind & Solar \u2018Transition\u2019 Unravels"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From STOP THESE THINGS<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Being entirely dependent upon subsidies and the weather, the grand wind and solar \u2018transition\u2019 is on a collision course with reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European states have taken to rejecting the much heralded all wind and sun powered future, en masse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Swedes are only the latest to join a group more concerned about their citizen\u2019s welfare than the welfare of crony capitalists and rent-seekers, ditching self-destructive plans to rely on wind and solar, plumping for new nuclear power<\/a>, instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The French are demanding a rapid uptake of nuclear power across Europe<\/a>, sick of their nuclear plants doing most of the heavy lifting when the sun sets and calm weather sets in, leaving Germans scrambling for power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The lessons from Europe are hiding in plain sight, at least in Australia. Where a mixture of delusion and wishful thinking is driving Australia\u2019s once reliable and affordable power supply to the brink of destruction. The closure of one more coal-fired power plant should do the job.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those in charge of the disaster resemble characters rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic after the iceberg struck home. The Australian\u2019s Nick Cater reports on one of them, Daniel Westerman, the head of Australia\u2019s Energy Market Operator, who would be better suited to astrology and horoscopes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Transition furphies won\u2019t stop our energy woes<\/strong>
The Australian\u201d
Nick Cater
26 June 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fiddling with the design of an aircraft in mid-flight is rightly regarded as poor practice in the safety-conscious aviation industry. But standards are less rigorous in the energy sector, judging by an extraordinary speech delivered last week by Daniel Westerman, chief executive of the Australian Energy Market Operator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The accelerated plan to decarbonise the electricity grid \u201crequires our industry to redesign and rebuild the aeroplane while we\u2019re flying it\u201d, he told an industry conference on Tuesday. \u201cAnd we have to keep the lights on and the gas flowing today, while we assemble the new system of tomorrow, as the old system of yesterday gradually gives way.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The head of the organisation, tasked with realising Chris Bowen\u2019s impossible low-carbon energy targets, should quietly take the Energy Minister aside and tell him he\u2019s dreaming. Reducing the proportion of electrons generated by coal and gas from 70 per cent to 18 per cent by the end of the Albanese government\u2019s third term simply isn\u2019t going to happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet instead, Westerman is leading the cheer squad, as he told the industry gathering he and almost everyone else were on board with the plan to do away with \u201cold-school coal\u201d and replace it with \u201ca kaleidoscope of technologies and solutions\u201d. He said the debate was no longer about whether this will happen, but how quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately, Westerman\u2019s technological kaleidoscope is somewhat less colourful than it otherwise might be. It does not include zero or close-to-zero technologies such as carbon capture and storage, biofuels, geothermal, conventional nuclear or small modular reactors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crucially, it does not include any form of generation that acts as a baseload; that\u2019s to say, power that can be relied upon 24 hours a day whatever the weather. So it might be helpful if Westerman told us a little bit more about how AEMO expects to achieve this incredible feat against such hard deadlines, while at the same time doing its most important day job, which is to match supply with demand in five-minute segments every day of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Running an entire continent with wind, water and solar alone makes for an interesting thought experiment. Theoretically, it can be done if resources were unlimited, technology ripens, the social licence is assured and adverse consequences are ignored. Yet since none of these constraints is trivial, prudence dictates that the market operator should explore other ways to skin the cat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He could learn from countries such as Finland, Canada and France, where the grids already run with emissions of 15 per cent or less. All of these countries have embraced nuclear. It would be instructive to know how much attention, if any, AEMO has been paying to the lively scientific debate in the US between hardcore renewable-only purists and the pragmatists who are open to other zero-carbon options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mark Z. Jacobson published an influential article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2015 proposing the construction of a coast-to-coast grid to facilitate the expansion of wind, solar and hydro generation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He concluded that 100 per cent of power demand in the 48 contiguous US states could be supplied by wind, water and solar without any need for natural gas, biofuels, stationary batteries or nuclear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was followed by a devastating critique by Christopher Clack, who asserted that Jacobson had used invalid modelling tools, contained modelling errors and made \u201cimplausible and inadequately supported assumptions\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Westerman and his team would be wise to note Clack\u2019s warning that policymakers should \u201ctreat with caution any visions of a rapid, reliable and low-cost transition to entire energy systems that relies almost exclusively on wind, solar and hydro-electric power\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jacobson lodged a $US10m claim for defamation against Clack and the journal in the District of Columbia Superior Court in 2017, but the case was dismissed and costs were awarded against the plaintiff in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Westerman isn\u2019t blind to the difficulties of the NEM Reform Implementation Roadmap. In his speech he pointed to a strong pipeline of potential wind, solar and battery projects, but said \u201cthe crucial word here is \u2018proposed\u2019 \u2026 bringing these new projects to market and connecting them into the grid urgently is critical\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ominously, Westerman said there were no new financial commitments to large-scale wind and solar generation projects in the first quarter of the year. He is more optimistic about the installation of rooftop solar, but hints at the challenge of connecting so much uncontrollable power to the grid. He admitted AEMO\u2019s operational technology is not keeping pace with a grid that is becoming \u201cinfinitely more complex\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s before we consider the transmission system that Westerman says is becoming gridlocked because of the way our electricity is being generated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have already reached peak renewables on the current grid, with the links between Victoria and NSW and Victoria and Tasmania running at their limits for 42 per cent and 57 per cent of the time from January to March. Curtailment of renewable energy generation has increased by 40 per cent in the past year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coal generators are falling like skittles. NSW\u2019s largest plant, Eraring, is scheduled to close in two years and Westerman warned that almost two-thirds of coal generation could be gone by the end of the decade, which might lead to a few issues on a winter Sunday morning like at the weekend. At 6.45am, the east and west coast grids combined were running on 60 per cent coal, with Queensland the highest at 86 per cent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The expansion in the grid, which might have allowed Sunday\u2019s glut of southern wind to flow north, is being delayed at every turn as planners discover (to their evident surprise) that rural communities aren\u2019t exactly clamouring for steel towers rising higher than the Sydney Harbour Bridge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Westerman insisted the AEMO\u2019s Integrated Systems Plan setting out the path and timetable for transition remains \u201ccredible\u201d. Yet his rhetoric casts doubt. \u201cWe\u2019re attempting to stitch together a new system \u2026 with a vast number of smaller generators, storage and firming technologies, and 3.5 million rooftop solar systems,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the energy market operator uses a phrase such as \u201cstitch together\u201d in a scripted speech, it is hard to suppress the image of an electricity system falling apart at the seams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Westerman\u2019s appeal for urgent investment in firming technology, such as pumped hydro, flexible gas generation and battery storage, suggests the nay-sayers\u2019 concerns about weather-dependent technology weren\u2019t that stupid after all.
The Australian<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Being entirely dependent upon subsidies and the weather, the grand wind and solar \u2018transition\u2019 is on a collision course with reality.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":265829,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691820838,691818589,691819094],"class_list":{"0":"post-265819","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-battery-storage","9":"tag-nuclear-plants","10":"tag-renewable-green-energy","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/OIG-5.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-179p","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":210441,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=210441","url_meta":{"origin":265819,"position":0},"title":"Renewables Road to Nowhere: Subsidised Wind & Solar Just Don\u2019t Work & Never Will","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/07\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"In the absence of mandates directing grid managers to take chaotic wind or solar power ahead of conventional power and\/or massive subsidies directed to retailers encouraging them to take it and\/or heavy fines imposed on them if they refuse to, there is simply no commercial market for power which can\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0turbine-collapse-2.webp?fit=680%2C383&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0turbine-collapse-2.webp?fit=680%2C383&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0turbine-collapse-2.webp?fit=680%2C383&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":238646,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=238646","url_meta":{"origin":265819,"position":1},"title":"Climate Changed: Calm, Gloomy Weather Killing Europe\u2019s Grand Wind & Solar \u2018Transition\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"In the mother of all ironies, Europe\u2019s wind and sun cult are complaining about uncooperative weather. The Germans have even coined a word for it: \u2018dunkelflaute\u2019 \u2013 meaning a period of gloomy, windless weather. Which, in reality, means little or nothing by way of output from their more than 30,000\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/0wind-turbines.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/0wind-turbines.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/0wind-turbines.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/0wind-turbines.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/0wind-turbines.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":420474,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=420474","url_meta":{"origin":265819,"position":2},"title":"\u201cShould LCOE finally be retired from energy policy?\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) calculates the average net present cost of electricity generation over a plant's lifetime, divided by the total energy produced (in $\/MWh). It provides a straightforward way to compare the direct costs of different technologies, such as capital, operations, maintenance, and fuel. Historically, it has\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"cost of electricity generation\"","block_context":{"text":"cost of electricity generation","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=cost-of-electricity-generation"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/00Screenshot-2026-01-08-120432.png?fit=1200%2C743&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/00Screenshot-2026-01-08-120432.png?fit=1200%2C743&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/00Screenshot-2026-01-08-120432.png?fit=1200%2C743&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/00Screenshot-2026-01-08-120432.png?fit=1200%2C743&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/00Screenshot-2026-01-08-120432.png?fit=1200%2C743&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":220690,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=220690","url_meta":{"origin":265819,"position":3},"title":"Why Weather-Dependent Wind & Solar Transition Will Inevitably Fail","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/09\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Spoiler alert: the reason the wind and solar transition must fail is calm weather and sunset. So much, so simple and obvious.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1232.png?fit=1000%2C500&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1232.png?fit=1000%2C500&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1232.png?fit=1000%2C500&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1232.png?fit=1000%2C500&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":254911,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=254911","url_meta":{"origin":265819,"position":4},"title":"The Energy Transition Is a Delusion for Cheap Wind and Solar Power","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The \u201cenergy transition\u201d is a massive shift, wholly artificial and politicized, from conventional energy inexpensive (Table 1b\u00a0and\u00a0here),\u00a0reliable, and\u00a0very clean\u00a0given the proper policy environment, toward such unconventional energy technologies as wind and solar power.","rel":"","context":"In \"Energy Transition\"","block_context":{"text":"Energy Transition","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=energy-transition"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-wind-and-solar45.jpeg?fit=1200%2C767&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-wind-and-solar45.jpeg?fit=1200%2C767&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-wind-and-solar45.jpeg?fit=1200%2C767&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-wind-and-solar45.jpeg?fit=1200%2C767&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-wind-and-solar45.jpeg?fit=1200%2C767&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":253442,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=253442","url_meta":{"origin":265819,"position":5},"title":"Political Power Failure: 88% of Germans Reckon Wind & Solar \u201aTransition\u2018 Doomed to Failure","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Germans were said to be rock-solid supporters of the grand \u2018plan\u2019 to run on nothing but wind and solar. 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