{"id":265761,"date":"2023-07-06T16:25:25","date_gmt":"2023-07-06T14:25:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=265761"},"modified":"2023-07-06T16:25:28","modified_gmt":"2023-07-06T14:25:28","slug":"the-new-pause-remains-at-8-years-10-months","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=265761","title":{"rendered":"The New Pause Remains At 8 Years 10 Months"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UAH global lower-troposphere anomaly for June 2023 is up by 0.01 K from the 0.37 K in May to 0.38 K. The New Pause thus remains at 8 years 10 months:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Nere is the entire dataset from December 1978 to June 2023:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

IPCC (1990), in the business-as-usual emissions scenario A in its First Assessment Report, <\/em>predicted 0.3 [0.2, 0.5] K decade\u20131<\/sup> global warming from 1990-2090. Scenarios B, C and D all predicted less warming, but they also all predicted fewer sins of emission than Scenario A. Scenario B, for instance, predicted that annual emissions would not increase from 1990-2025. In reality, however, emissions have increased by more than half since 1990. Scenario A, then, is the emissions scenario on which we must judge IPCC\u2019s predictions, which have proven to be grossly excessive. For the warming rate since 1990 has been only 0.137 K decade\u20131<\/sup>, showing IPCC\u2019s original range of predictions to be 220% [150%, 370%] of observed reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is the UAH temperature record since 1990:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The latest el Ni\u00f1o is now well underway. On past form, it will soon bring the current Pause to an end. Already, the unspeakable BBC is licking its chops and predicting new record global temperatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Realitometer, unchanged since last month, continues to show the excess of prediction over observed reality:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the Climate Realists of Norway have undertaken the arduous task of establishing an international journal of climate science and philosophy. The journal is, perhaps, unique in that it allows challenges to the official narrative. Science of Climate Change<\/em> (https:\/\/scienceofclimatechange.org<\/a>). Volume 1.1 appeared on 1 August 2021 with a memorial of professor Nils-Axel Moerner, two book reviews and seven full-length papers (including one by me on What is Science and what is not?<\/em>. The journal is free to read, but asks authors for a small fee to cover publication costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I remember Energy and Environment <\/em>with affection. That journal used to provide a home for peer-reviewed papers that the guardians of the Party Line would not permit to be published elsewhere. Now Science of Climate Change <\/em>is fulfilling a similar role. Contributions to the new journal are welcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vol. 2.2 published a paper by the late Ernst-Georg Beck, Reconstruction of Atmospheric CO2<\/sub> Background Levels since 1826 from Direct Measurements near Ground <\/em>(https:\/\/doi.org\/10.53234\/scc202112\/16<\/a>).<\/em>  A dataset of annually averaged CO2<\/sub> background levels directly measured from 1826 to 1960 was presented. It was based on a selection process of about 100,000 single samples from more than 200,000 available near ground on land and sea, mainly in the northern hemisphere. One of Beck\u2019s findings was the CO2<\/sub> level around 1940 peaked at 370 ppmv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beck\u2019s paper sparked a good debate, of which a large part can be seen in Vol. 3.2, the latest of seven editions to date (https:\/\/scienceofclimatechange.org\/volume-3-2-june-2023<\/a>). Vol 3.2 starts with an essay by Richard Mackey focusing on how observed oscillations in several atmospheric and oceanic subsystems are largely responsible for Earth\u2019s weather and climate. Rotation forces the oscillations and is the primary reason for the climate change we observe. This is currently overlooked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ferdinand Engelbeen commented on the article mentioned above by Ernst-Georg Beck. His article had been posted for open review, which attracted several comments on both sides. Professor Hermann Harde showed that the equations for release of CO2<\/sub> from land and ocean due to higher temperatures can explain the observed peak. In short, there was a debate on a climatic question. That, on its own, is rare and valuable.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The UAH global lower-troposphere anomaly for June 2023 is up by 0.01 K from the 0.37 K in May to 0.38 K. The New Pause thus remains at 8 years 10 months<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":265769,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818389,691818090,691818076,691819287,691820828,691818381,691820829,691820830],"class_list":{"0":"post-265761","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-bbc","9":"tag-climate-warning","10":"tag-co2","11":"tag-el-nino-2","12":"tag-global-lower-troposphere","13":"tag-ipcc","14":"tag-new-pause","15":"tag-predictions","17":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-160.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-178t","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":265548,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=265548","url_meta":{"origin":265761,"position":0},"title":"UAH Global Temperature Update for June, 2023: +0.38 deg. 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