{"id":264813,"date":"2023-07-01T15:05:07","date_gmt":"2023-07-01T13:05:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=264813"},"modified":"2023-07-01T15:05:09","modified_gmt":"2023-07-01T13:05:09","slug":"a-narrow-view-of-rainfall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=264813","title":{"rendered":"A Narrow View Of Rainfall"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So I came across a news article with the headline:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Philly will have more heat waves, and the Delaware projected to rise more than a foot over the next 25 years<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yeah, right, sez I. The claim is that the flooding will come from increased rainfall in the Philly area. The underlying study is from something named the CRRA:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

The Climate Resilience Research Agenda (CRRA) was developed through a collaboration formed in 2019 between the City of Philadelphia, the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC), the Academy of Natural Sciences (ANS) of Drexel University, and Drexel University faculty and staff engaged in the Consortium for Climate Risks in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The CRRA Philadelphia folks have put out a document called \u201cA Climate Resilience Research Agenda for the Greater Philadelphia Area<\/a>\u201c, with the subtitle \u201cFindings from 2021 Working Group Discussions And Updated CMIP6 Projections for the Region\u201d<\/em><\/strong>. This is the CRRA Philadelphia Findings document, hereinafter \u201cCRRAP Findings\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note that these are not findings from scientific studies. Instead, they are CRRAP Findings from \u201cWorking Group Discussions\u201d<\/em> and downsampled climate models. Clearly science at its finest \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inter alia the study says:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Philadelphia is expected to become both hotter and wetter in the future through increased
precipitation, a rising sea level, and increased air temperature. In addition to these changes,
extreme weather in the region is projected to continue to increase in frequency and severity,
leading to increased riverine and stormwater flooding, among other impacts.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

I started with the tides. The study shows the following, from\u00a0NOAA<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1. NOAA sea level rise in Philadelphia<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s been rising at 3.04 mm\/year, that\u2019s about an eighth of an inch. And there\u2019s no sign of acceleration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next, here are their projections for future sea levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These are relative to the average of the 1995 to 2014 period. For Philadelphia, from the data in Figure 1, that 1995-2014 average is +49 mm. Current sea level there is +95 mm, so it\u2019s gone up by 46 mm since the reference period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So if it\u2019s going to go up 6 inches by 2035, from today that\u2019s 6 inches less 46 mm. So it has to go up by 106 mm in the next 11.5 years, which is 9.3 mm per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, to get to their lowest<\/em><\/strong> estimate of 2035 levels, the Philadelphia sea level rise would have to triple tomorrow<\/em><\/strong> and stay that high until 2035. And to get to their highest estimate for 2035, the rate of rise would have to go to 24.7 mm per year tomorrow, and stay there until 2035. That\u2019s a sea level rise of almost an inch a year, eight times the current rate<\/em><\/strong>, starting tomorrow \u2026 yeah, right, that\u2019s totally legit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obviously, these folks just grab numbers and never think to ground-test them against reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next, I got to wondering about the claim of \u201cincreased precipitation\u201d. So I went to the marvelous KNMI website and got the six weather stations closest to Philly with over 50 years of rainfall data that extended to the present. These are Philadelphia International Airport, PA; Conshohocken, PA; Neshaminy Falls, PA; Indian Mills 2 W, NJ; Wilmington Porter Rsch, DE; and Lambertville, NJ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here are those records:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 3. Monthly rainfall totals, six longterm stations in\/near Philadelphia<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hmm \u2026 very little trend in there, despite decades of warming. Also, in each case the rain has been decreasing over the last two decades. Finally, we see what is called the \u201cNoah Effect\u201d, where one or two of the rainfall totals are much much larger than all the rest. This is a common finding in rainfall data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How about their predictions for extreme rainfall? Figure 4 shows those fanciful numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 4. Projections of future extreme events, from the CRRAP Findings.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note the highlighted section. It says that by the 2080s, 10% of the years will have less than 11 days with an inch (25.4 mm) per day of rain, and another 10% of the years will have more than 11 days with an inch per day of rain. Here\u2019s a histogram of how that might play out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 5. Random proxy data for the 2080s with 10% under 11 and 10% over 14, as in the CCRAP projections in Figure 4. Yellow\/black lines show 11 and 14 days per year.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OK, so that\u2019s a look at their fantasy for the 2080s \u2026 but how does that compare with historical records?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 6 is the same as Figure 5, but it includes a histogram in red of the number of days per year with more than an inch of rain in the six historical records shown above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 6. As in Figure 5, but includes the historical data in red.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The CMIP6 projections shown in the CRRAP Findings look nothing at all like the historical data. Historically, there are many more years with less than 11 days with an inch of rain. Not only that, but there are more years with more than 14 days with an inch of rain. In fact, in some years, some of the stations recorded over 25 days with more than an inch of rain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusions? The future projections in the CRRAP Findings document are far from \u201clife-like\u201d, meaning they bear very little resemblance to actual historical sea level rise and rainfall patterns. If I lived in Philly, I\u2019d just point and laugh \u2026 but hey, I was born yesterday, what do I know?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My best wishes to everyone for a life of love and laughter,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PS<\/strong>\u2014Yeah, I\u2019m still suspended from Twitter. They claimed it was because I said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

I see that James Comer is going to \u201ctake steps\u201d against the FBI for concealing evidence of Biden corruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps? Here\u2019s my simple 3-step plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1) Fire every single person working for the FBI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2) Burn the FBI building to the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3) Salt the earth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

w.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

I stated here on WUWT that I thought it was not because of that tweet\u2014it was for my views on climate. Some people laughed at that idea, claiming it was just my egotism, that the tweeps didn\u2019t care about my climate views, and that my tweet was \u201cinciting violence\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But a search on \u201cburn down the FBI\u201d (in quotes) on Twitter finds over a hundred tweets, including these two, from folks that aren\u2019t suspended.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So, if you\u2019re on Twitter, maybe you could tweet to @elonmusk to unsuspend @weschenbach \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And Also:<\/strong> When you comment, I implore you to quote the exact words you are discussing<\/em><\/strong>, so we can all be clear on your subject.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From Watts Up With That? Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach So I came across a news article with the headline: Philly will have more heat waves, and the Delaware projected to rise more than a foot over the next 25 years Yeah, right, sez I. The claim is that the flooding will come from increased […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":264827,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818324,691818397,691819383],"class_list":["post-264813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-cmip6","tag-noaa","tag-rainfall","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/00rainfall.webp?fit=1600%2C1066&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-16Tb","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":425691,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=425691","url_meta":{"origin":264813,"position":0},"title":"How Did Last Month\u2019s Rainfall Compare With\u00a01929?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/11\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT By Paul Homewood UK actual and anomaly maps - Met Office To put last month\u2019s rainfall into perspective, it is worth comparing to one of the wettest months in the past \u2013 November 1929. As we know, the UK as a whole\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"1929 Rainfall\"","block_context":{"text":"1929 Rainfall","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1929-rainfall"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0AQOnYYr56YMNXrxMo_sY-HebcIU4TiUFeZsVPcnRKHxITcCOGQpafT-hF3QPN8iGYieFU2IjVqPr1gaxdKuRUFLRa2-jF0X361IzpIDYqNI302wiLK5-rDH5xCbcZ7oL-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0AQOnYYr56YMNXrxMo_sY-HebcIU4TiUFeZsVPcnRKHxITcCOGQpafT-hF3QPN8iGYieFU2IjVqPr1gaxdKuRUFLRa2-jF0X361IzpIDYqNI302wiLK5-rDH5xCbcZ7oL-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0AQOnYYr56YMNXrxMo_sY-HebcIU4TiUFeZsVPcnRKHxITcCOGQpafT-hF3QPN8iGYieFU2IjVqPr1gaxdKuRUFLRa2-jF0X361IzpIDYqNI302wiLK5-rDH5xCbcZ7oL-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0AQOnYYr56YMNXrxMo_sY-HebcIU4TiUFeZsVPcnRKHxITcCOGQpafT-hF3QPN8iGYieFU2IjVqPr1gaxdKuRUFLRa2-jF0X361IzpIDYqNI302wiLK5-rDH5xCbcZ7oL-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0AQOnYYr56YMNXrxMo_sY-HebcIU4TiUFeZsVPcnRKHxITcCOGQpafT-hF3QPN8iGYieFU2IjVqPr1gaxdKuRUFLRa2-jF0X361IzpIDYqNI302wiLK5-rDH5xCbcZ7oL-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":425510,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=425510","url_meta":{"origin":264813,"position":1},"title":"Met Office\u2019s Northern Ireland Rainfall Dataset Is\u00a0Worthless","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/10\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"It is not an exaggeration to say that the dataset since 1960 bears no resemblance at all to what went before. No matter how much you homogenise, no matter what sophisticated computer models you run, rainfall trends since 1960 cannot be compared with those before. The station mix is completely\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Computer models\"","block_context":{"text":"Computer models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=computer-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0AQN36oCZbHO295ufI-MavEFTu9F-VUMHvUhA8O6yhz33Uvl8GkUBvBCg2SgxsmWFViSXXMAi1HRYKGIIhdBs4CJ48BsCvsrIxktT0QzmKYDm7zk1lLBQOjVPmYJh9VI-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C639&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0AQN36oCZbHO295ufI-MavEFTu9F-VUMHvUhA8O6yhz33Uvl8GkUBvBCg2SgxsmWFViSXXMAi1HRYKGIIhdBs4CJ48BsCvsrIxktT0QzmKYDm7zk1lLBQOjVPmYJh9VI-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C639&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0AQN36oCZbHO295ufI-MavEFTu9F-VUMHvUhA8O6yhz33Uvl8GkUBvBCg2SgxsmWFViSXXMAi1HRYKGIIhdBs4CJ48BsCvsrIxktT0QzmKYDm7zk1lLBQOjVPmYJh9VI-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C639&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 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Wet\u00a0Spring!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"You could not make it up, but the Met Office can!","rel":"","context":"In \"UK rainfall\"","block_context":{"text":"UK rainfall","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=uk-rainfall"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0josh-calabrese-146257_opt.jpg?fit=1000%2C667&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0josh-calabrese-146257_opt.jpg?fit=1000%2C667&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0josh-calabrese-146257_opt.jpg?fit=1000%2C667&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0josh-calabrese-146257_opt.jpg?fit=1000%2C667&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 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Here\u2019s How NOAA Perpetuates A Climate Crisis Rainfall Myth","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/21\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Here is an example of myth making by NOAA\u2019s \u201cAsk a Scientist\u201d about extreme rainfall.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate crisis\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate crisis","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-crisis"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Climate-Change-Concept-Illustration.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Climate-Change-Concept-Illustration.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Climate-Change-Concept-Illustration.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Climate-Change-Concept-Illustration.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Climate-Change-Concept-Illustration.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/264813","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=264813"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/264813\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":264830,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/264813\/revisions\/264830"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/264827"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=264813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=264813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=264813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}