{"id":264490,"date":"2023-06-29T13:14:41","date_gmt":"2023-06-29T11:14:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=264490"},"modified":"2023-06-29T13:15:02","modified_gmt":"2023-06-29T11:15:02","slug":"andrew-dessler-on-texas-heat-vague-but-exaggerated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=264490","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Dessler on Texas Heat: Vague but Exaggerated"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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SONY DSC<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Master Resource<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Robert Bradley Jr.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cRob, your question makes zero sense & and I don\u2019t have the patience to deal with people like you. Please crawl back under the rock you emerged from or I\u2019ll ban you from my substack. Seriously: your next comment that displeases me is your last, so make sure it\u2019s a doozy.\u201d (Andrew Dessler, below)<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Climatologist Andrew Dessler<\/a>, a leading figure on the alarmist side of the debate, is a piece of work\u2013extremely smart and knowledgeable but biased and short-tempered. His personality is akin to that of Joe Romm<\/a> of yesterday and Michael Mann<\/a> today\u2013arrogant, condescending, petty. Dessler is certain that he knows what is to be known about all things climate and energy. But, really, he does not know what he does not know. (Yes, climate science is highly uncertain, and climate models are a mess<\/a>.) [1]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As an example of Dessler at his worst, consider this quotation<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n

Hey assholes. We\u2019ve been telling you for decades that this was going to happen if we didn\u2019t reduce greenhouse gas emissions. You didn\u2019t listen and now it\u2019s all happening. We hope you\u2019re happy. Enjoy the heatwaves, intense rainfall, sea level rise, ocean acidification, and many other things, you fucking morons.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is a recent exchange with Angry Andy on his Substack post, \u201cIs Climate Change Causing the Texas Heat Wave?<\/a>\u201d His post stated:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Climate change doesn\u2019t typically cause<\/em> extreme weather. Rather, climate change is an amplifier for extreme weather. You can think of climate change as \u201csteroids for the weather\u201d\u2026 So climate change doesn\u2019t cause a hot day, but it can transform a run-of-the-mill hot day into a record-breaking scorcher. Based on this, you might want to ask if climate change is making the Texas heat wave worse. The answer is an unambiguous yes<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

I asked in a comment: Isn\u2019t the \u2018greenhouse signal\u2019 more minimum temperatures going up (versus maximums)\u2013and more concentrated in the coldest regions of the year during winter? If so, what are the implications for your interpretation here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dessler<\/strong>: Global warming tends to reduce gradients, so you do get more warming at night, during winter, and at high latitudes. but climate change certainly does cause warming during the day, in summer, and in the tropics. so this has no implications for the interpretation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bradley<\/strong>: It dilutes the effect. So compared to the average, what percentage from (below) 100% is the Texas Dome anthropogenic effect? This is a quantitative discussion, not only a qualitative one, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dessler<\/strong>: why do you ask questions that are clearly answered in the post? pls re-read the last 2 paragraphs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bradley<\/strong>: No it isn\u2019t. You should specifically note the distribution of the warming and how it is diminished from the \u2018average\u2019 because of summer and afternoons. In general, what is the reduction from the average? 10% \u2026. 25% \u2026 ?<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dessler: <\/strong>Rob, your question makes zero sense & and I don\u2019t have the patience to deal with people like you. Please crawl back under the rock you emerged from or I\u2019ll ban you from my substack. Seriously: your next comment that displeases me is your last, so make sure it\u2019s a doozy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I thought of ending the discussion here but pressed on with an attempt to get my question answered and not get kicked out of his Substack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bradley<\/strong>: I am not trying to pick a fight but am politely asking: is anthropogenic warming the least causal (least intense, most benign) during this time of year (summer) and the time of day (afternoons) to relate to your post on the current Texas heat wave?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dessler<\/strong>: See, it\u2019s not that hard to be polite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To answer: that\u2019s certainly true for average warming, but I\u2019m not 100% sure if that is true for extremes. For this or any individual event, you have to do attribution studies. But we already know the sign of the answer: climate change made this more severe than it otherwise would be. The only question is the magnitude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I could have come back with something like \u201cYou are waffling around the fact that your Texas summer heat interpretation is weakened by the theory\u2013theory you did not mention in your analysis. This is lawyer-like and not scholarly. And heck, while you are at it, why not mention that loads of concrete that have been added under the \u2018heat dome\u2019 in recent years and decades\u2013and even speak to the tens of thousands of huge industrial wind turbines that scientific studies indicate are contributing to local heating.<\/em>\u201d But that would have gotten me kicked off his Substack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dessler almost cancelled me. His Cancel Culture<\/a> applies to economists<\/a> too. And remember what Dessler called esteemed scientist Steven Koonin, author of Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Does Not, and Why It Matters<\/a><\/em>? A \u201cclimate flat earther<\/a>\u201d and \u201cold white dude whose vast experience in the halls of power gives him a unique ability to point out the errors that other people make? Nope.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Final Comment<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dessler is a lawyer for alarmism, not a humble, careful scientist. Remember the Polar Bear Scare?  Dessler warned about \u201cthe extinction of Polar Bears\u201d as a cost of climate change in the first editions of his science primer, An Introduction to the Science of Climate Change<\/em> (2011: p. 220; 2020: p. 237) only to drop it in the third edition (2022). These are the obvious exaggerations\u2013what about all the subtle ones?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And regarding Texas outlier summers? We had one in 2011 that Dessler pronounced as the new normal<\/a>. But it was not for more than a decade. But come 2023 (to date), and Andy is all over the heat dome as the climate norm. And notice how he stays vague, as in qualitative rather than quantitative. Is he trying to be careful in a sea of weather unknowns and climate mysteries?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate alarmism 2023, continuing what began, officially, at least, 35 years ago this month<\/a>\u2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014-<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1]<\/strong> MIT climatologist Kerry Emanuel (author of the 70-page primer, What We Know About Climate Change<\/em> (MIT Press: 2018) stated<\/a> : \u201cIf I\u2019d written a book called What We Don\u2019t Know about Climate Science<\/em>, it would have been an encyclopedia.\u201d Also: \u201c\u2026 it\u2019s not about this is going to be a climate catastrophe on the one side, or nothing on the other. That\u2019s not the way the world works.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dessler is certain that he knows what is to be known about all things climate and energy. But, really, he does not know what he does not know. (Yes, climate science is highly uncertain, and\u00a0climate models are a mess.)\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":264494,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819710,691818056,691818153,691820446],"class_list":{"0":"post-264490","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-andrew-dessler","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-climate-models","11":"tag-texas-heat","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0hot.jpg?fit=1600%2C1071&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-16NY","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":188107,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=188107","url_meta":{"origin":264490,"position":0},"title":"Dessler on the Joe Rogan Experience\u2026Oy!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/02\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"And\u2026 https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?creatorScreenName=wattsupwiththat&dnt=true&embedId=twitter-widget-2&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1494103189456658435&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwattsupwiththat.com%2F2022%2F02%2F17%2Fdessler-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-oy%2F&sessionId=8ea038c3e8614281335221551bbab95519c4b536&siteScreenName=WattsUpWithThat&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px MasterResource has another excellent article on Dessler\u2019s behavior By Robert Bradley Jr. \u2014 February 17, 2022 [Andrew] Dessler said anyone arguing that the science is too uncertain isn\u2019t arguing from a legitimate position\u2026. \u201c[Koonin]\u2019s a climate flat earther.\u201d (Quoted in Benjamin Thorp,\u00a0October 18, 2021).\u201cDumb arguments\u201d is too harsh?\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0koonin-dessler.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0koonin-dessler.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0koonin-dessler.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0koonin-dessler.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":354286,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=354286","url_meta":{"origin":264490,"position":1},"title":"Andrew Dessler\u2019s Strange Optimism (post-election groping)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/12\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The recent election should have thrown climate scientist\/alarmist\/activist Andrew Dessler into a funk, even toward self-doubt and need to check his anti-CO2 premises. His all-out exaggeration about a climate emergency was resoundingly rejected by the winning party and\u00a0abandoned as an important talking point by the losing party.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Andrew-Dessler.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Andrew-Dessler.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Andrew-Dessler.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Andrew-Dessler.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Andrew-Dessler.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":263698,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=263698","url_meta":{"origin":264490,"position":2},"title":"Andrew Dessler: The future will be hotter, unless it\u2019s colder.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Andrew Dessler @AndrewDessler Prof of Atmospheric Sciences & climate scientist @ Texas A&M; AGU and AAAS Fellow has been prognosticating on Twitter, talking up a model that predicts another 2C of warming by 2100 (0.25C\/decade, twice the rate 2013-2023).","rel":"","context":"In \"Andrew Dessler\"","block_context":{"text":"Andrew Dessler","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=andrew-dessler"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Facepalm-2541.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Facepalm-2541.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Facepalm-2541.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Facepalm-2541.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Facepalm-2541.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":213323,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=213323","url_meta":{"origin":264490,"position":3},"title":"Dessler to Debate \u2018Climate Flat Earther\u2019 Koonin: Why?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Andrew Dessler, a climatologist at Texas A&M University, will have nothing to do with any critic of climate alarm.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-450.png?fit=996%2C498&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-450.png?fit=996%2C498&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-450.png?fit=996%2C498&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-450.png?fit=996%2C498&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":287513,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=287513","url_meta":{"origin":264490,"position":4},"title":"\u201cClimate Emergency!\u201d says Andrew Dessler (old vinegar in a new bottle)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"You get the story. Dessler\u2019s alarm is old vinegar in a new bottle. In view of the historical record, his readers should be cautious. From\u00a0Master Resource By Robert Bradley Jr. \u201cA few days ago, a recent\u00a0Washington Post article\u00a0highlighted the growing chorus of scientists who increasingly view climate change as an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Andrew Dessler\"","block_context":{"text":"Andrew Dessler","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=andrew-dessler"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-307.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-307.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-307.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-307.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-307.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":300580,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=300580","url_meta":{"origin":264490,"position":5},"title":"Hurricanes 2023: Andrew Dessler\u2019s Hollow Alarm","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The\u00a02023 Atlantic hurricane season: 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes versus the \u201caverage\u201d of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Last year tied 1933 as the fourth most active\u2026. So where is the greenhouse signal in all this?","rel":"","context":"In \"Andrew Dessler\"","block_context":{"text":"Andrew Dessler","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=andrew-dessler"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0sattelite-NOAA-2020-hurricane.jpg?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0sattelite-NOAA-2020-hurricane.jpg?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0sattelite-NOAA-2020-hurricane.jpg?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0sattelite-NOAA-2020-hurricane.jpg?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0sattelite-NOAA-2020-hurricane.jpg?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/264490","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=264490"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/264490\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":264498,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/264490\/revisions\/264498"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/264494"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=264490"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=264490"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=264490"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}