{"id":264223,"date":"2023-06-27T20:05:05","date_gmt":"2023-06-27T18:05:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=264223"},"modified":"2023-06-27T20:05:08","modified_gmt":"2023-06-27T18:05:08","slug":"nations-planning-for-future-hydrocarbon-energy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=264223","title":{"rendered":"Nations Planning for Future Hydrocarbon\u00a0Energy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From energypost.eu comes the news Nearly half of national climate pledges (NDCs) intend to keep extracting fossil fuels.<\/strong><\/a>  Excerpts in italics with my bolds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nationally Determined Contributions\u201d (NDCs) are a nation\u2019s published plans to reduce emissions<\/strong> and adapt to the impacts of climate change.  Nations are obliged to update their NDCs every five years<\/strong>, to give more detail. That added detail is a cause for concern in the latest round of NDCs: there is an increase in countries<\/strong> communicating plans to maintain or increase production rather than phase it out.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This goes against the fact that oil and gas production needs to decline
by at least 65% by 2050 in scenarios that limit warming to 1.5C.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We found that more and more countries are discussing the production of fossil fuels<\/strong> in their \u201cnationally determined contributions\u201d (NDCs).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The topic is mentioned in two-thirds of fossil fuel-producing countries\u2019 second-round NDCs<\/strong>, an increase on the first iteration, highlighting the increased discussion around the topic.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But we observe that while a few countries<\/strong> are reporting on measures to phase out fossil fuel production,<\/strong> nearly half of second-round NDCs included plans to maintain or even increase fossil fuel production.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here, we take a closer look at the growing discussion of fossil fuel production in NDCs and \u201clong-term low emissions development strategies\u201d (LT-LEDS),<\/strong> the significance of their inclusion and how governments could build in targets and pathways for winding down production as we look to the next NDC cycle.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Within the analysis<\/strong>, we looked at 103 first-round NDCs<\/strong> (those published between 2015-19), 95 second-round NDCs<\/strong> (2019-March 2023) and 31 LT-LEDS<\/strong> belonging to fossil fuel producing countries.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally<\/strong>, we looked at 65 first-round NDCs, 48 second-round NDCs and 19 LT-LEDS submitted by countries that do not produce fossil fuels.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Overall,\u00a0only two countries<\/strong>\u00a0discuss targets or policies designed\u00a0to restrict or wind down<\/strong>\u00a0fossil fuel production in their first-round NDCs, illustrated by the mid-green sliver in the second column from the top of the chart above. This rises to\u00a0five in second-round NDCs<\/strong>\u00a0(dark green) and 13 in LT-LEDS (light green).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Others<\/strong> \u2013 as shown in the first set of bars \u2013 do not include active policies, but, rather, quietly acknowledge<\/strong> the reality that their fossil fuel production will decrease. Australia<\/strong> is in this camp, for instance. Its LT-LEDS, while pledging to continue producing fossil fuels for as long as the world needs them, predicts<\/strong> that production will be 35% lower in 2050 than in 2020 due to changes in global demand.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a much larger number of countries plan to increase<\/strong> fossil fuel production, or indicate that they will maintain current levels: 35 first-round NDCs, 45 second-round NDCs, and 13 LT-LEDS . This is illustrated in the second set of bars in the figure above (\u201ccontinuing or increasing production\u201d).<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In particular, this increase within the second-round of NDCs is notable, with 15 new countries<\/strong> including the continuation or expansion of fossil fuel production in their second-round NDCs, while only three have dropped<\/strong> the reference in the second iteration.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, two countries that do not currently produce oil and gas \u2013 Lebanon and Senegal \u2013
expressed intent to begin in their second-round NDC.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many countries,<\/strong> such as Canada, Norway, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, include commitments to reduce flaring, electrify processes or increase the energy efficiency of fossil fuel production.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

These countries mostly\u00a0do not simultaneously indicate any intention to scale down<\/strong>\u00a0production volumes, however, despite the fact that oil and gas production declines by at least 65% by 2050 in scenarios that limit warming to 1.5C.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This goes against the fact that oil and gas production needs to decline
\nby at least 65% by 2050 in scenarios that limit warming to 1.5C.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":264232,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818228,691818118,691820556,691820555],"class_list":{"0":"post-264223","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-fossil-fuels","9":"tag-green-energy","10":"tag-hydrocarbon-energy","11":"tag-ndc","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-Hydrocarbon-Energy.jpeg?fit=1920%2C1200&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-16JF","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":360101,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=360101","url_meta":{"origin":264223,"position":0},"title":"Brazil\u2019s Paris Pledge Lies in\u00a0Tatters","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Brazil adopted the Paris Agreement and submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC in 2016 and its Updated NDC in 2020 in support of its adaptation commitments and continued economic and social development agendas. 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