{"id":263276,"date":"2023-06-22T10:50:40","date_gmt":"2023-06-22T08:50:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=263276"},"modified":"2023-06-22T10:50:43","modified_gmt":"2023-06-22T08:50:43","slug":"empirical-proof-sun-driving-climate-scafetta-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=263276","title":{"rendered":"Empirical Proof Sun Driving Climate (Scafetta\u00a02023)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On June 14, 2023 Nicola Scafetta published at Science Direct Empirical assessment of the role of the Sun in climate change using balanced multi-proxy solar records<\/strong><\/a>.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds with exhibits from the study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By design, climate models exclude solar forcing of earth\u2019s climate,
and perform poorly without it.<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scafetta (2023) Highlights<\/strong><\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

\u2022  The role of the Sun in climate change is hotly debated with diverse models.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022  The Earth\u2019s climate is likely influenced by the Sun through a variety of physical mechanisms.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022  Balanced multi-proxy solar records were created and their climate effect assessed.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022  Factors other than direct TSI forcing account for around 80% of the solar influence on the climate.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022\u00a0 Important solar-climate mechanisms must be investigated before developing reliable GCMs.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abstract<\/strong><\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

The role of the Sun in climate change is hotly debated.<\/strong> Some studies suggest its impact is significant, while others suggest it is minimal. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) supports the latter view and suggests that nearly 100% of the observed surface warming from 1850\u20131900 to 2020 is due to anthropogenic emissions.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the IPCC\u2019s conclusions are based solely on computer simulations made with global climate models (GCMs) forced with a total solar irradiance (TSI) record showing a low multi-decadal and secular variability<\/strong>. The same models also assume that the Sun affects the climate system only through radiative forcing \u2013 such as TSI \u2013 even though the climate could also be affected by other solar processes.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this paper I propose three \u201cbalanced\u201d multi-proxy models of total solar activity (TSA) that consider all main solar proxies proposed in scientific literature.<\/strong> Their optimal signature on global and sea surface temperature records is assessed<\/strong> together with those produced by the anthropogenic and volcanic radiative forcing functions adopted by the CMIP6 GCMs. This is done by using a basic energy balance model<\/strong> calibrated with a differential multi-linear regression methodology, which allows the climate system to respond to the solar input differently than to radiative forcings alone, and to evaluate the climate\u2019s characteristic time-response as well.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed methodology reproduces the results of the CMIP6 GCMs when their original forcing functions are applied<\/strong> under similar physical conditions, indicating that, in such a scenario, the likely range of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) could be 1.4 \u00b0C to 2.8 \u00b0C,<\/strong> with a mean of 2.1 \u00b0C (using the HadCRUT5 temperature record), which is compatible with the low-ECS CMIP6 GCM group.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, if the proposed solar records are used as TSA proxies<\/strong> and the climatic sensitivity to them is allowed to differ from the climatic sensitivity to radiative forcings, a much greater solar impact on climate change is found<\/strong>, along with a significantly reduced radiative effect. In this case, the ECS is found to be 0.9-1.8 \u00b0C, with a mean of around 1.3 \u00b0C. Lower ECS ranges (up to 20%) are found using HadSST4, HadCRUT4, and HadSST3.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The result also suggests that about 80% of the solar influence on the climate may not be induced by TSI forcing alone, but rather by other Sun-climate processes<\/strong> (e.g., by a solar magnetic modulation of cosmic ray and other particle fluxes, and\/or others), which must be thoroughly investigated and physically understood before trustworthy GCMs can be created. This result explains why empirical studies often found<\/strong> that the solar contribution to climate changes<\/strong> throughout the Holocene has been significant<\/strong>, whereas GCM-based studies,<\/strong> which only adopt radiative forcings, suggest that the Sun plays a relatively modest role.<\/strong> The appendix includes the proposed TSA records.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comparative Analysis<\/strong><\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 5. (A) Anthropogenic (blue) and volcanic (orange)<\/strong> effective radiative forcing functions adopted by the CMIP6 GCMs<\/strong> (Masson-Delmotte et al., 2021). (B) Comparison between the solar effective radiative forcing function<\/strong> from Table Annex III of the IPCC-AR6<\/strong> (green<\/strong>) (after Masson-Delmotte et al., 2021) and the three TSI forcing functions<\/strong> deduced from the TSI records shown in Fig. 4. All records are anomalies relative to their values in 1850.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The solar forcing functions depicted in Fig. 5B differ in several respects. Just a very modest secular trend can be seen for the solar forcing function used by the CMIP6 GCMs<\/strong>, which has remained nearly constant for about 200 years. Although not depicted in Fig. 5B, the TSI forcing adopted by the CMIP6 GCMs is so flat that even the 1790\u20131830 Dalton grand solar minimum almost coincides with the 1890\u20131910 solar minimum<\/strong> and the 2019 solar cycle minimum (Supplementary Data Table S5). Furthermore, because this record is also based on SATIRE and the PMOD TSI satellite composite, its solar effective forcing function decreased progressively from 1970 to 2020. Thus, by using this TSI record, the CMIP6 GCMs could only conclude that solar forcing did not account for<\/strong> almost any of the warming observed after the pre-industrial period (1850\u20131900), and, particularly, from 1980 to 2020. (Masson-Delmotte et al., 2021).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the contrary, the other three TSI records reveal a multidecadal oscillation as well as a clear increasing secular trend<\/strong>\u00a0from the Dalton solar minimum to 2000. More specifically, the\u00a0TSI forcing significantly increased<\/strong>\u00a0from the Dalton minimum (1810\u20131815) to around 1870\u20131876,\u00a0then declined<\/strong>\u00a0until around 1890\u20131905;\u00a0it increased rapidly<\/strong>\u00a0between 1910 and the 1940s,\u00a0and declined again<\/strong>\u00a0between 1950 and 1975. The TSI forcing then increased again until 2000, when it began to gradually fall until 2022. This\u00a0oscillating pattern<\/strong>\u00a0is especially noteworthy because, as demonstrated below, it is\u00a0closely correlated with the changes observed in total surface temperature records<\/strong>, which show a very similar increasing trend and multi-decadal modulation (cf.: Scafetta et al., 2004, Scafetta and West, 2006, Scafetta and West, 2008, Scafetta, 2009, Scafetta, 2010, Scafetta, 2012b, Scafetta, 2013a, Scafetta, 2021b).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 8. (A) HadCRUT5 global surface temperature versus the CMIP6 GCM ensemble average<\/strong>; (A\u2019) the two records are detrended<\/strong> with the function f(t) = a (x-1850)2. (B) HadCRUT5 global surface temperature versus the energy balance model (Eq. (16)) using the TSI proxy model #2;<\/strong> (B\u2019) the same as above. The green curves<\/strong> in Fig. 8A and B are sketches that highlight the different multi-decadal modulation of the red curves<\/strong> in Fig. 8A (monotonically increasing, like the anthropogenic forcing function) and in Fig. 8B (oscillating, like the temperature records).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fig. 8 compares the HadCRUT5 global surface temperature record to (A) the CMIP6 GCM ensemble mean record and (B) the energy balance model (Eq. (16)) using the proposed TSI proxy model #2, which does not use the GCMs\u2019 low secular-variability TSI record.<\/strong> The GCM simulation<\/strong> depicted in Fig.8A monotonically warms up<\/strong>, although occasional volcanic eruptions momentarily cause cold spikes; the monotonic warming trend produced by the model is simulated by the green curve<\/strong>. On the contrary, the model provided in Fig. 8B indicates an oscillating pattern<\/strong> developing around a warming trend. The global surface temperature record shows a similar growing trend, regulated by an approximately 60-year oscillation:<\/strong> the period 1880\u20131910 experienced a global cooling; the period 1910\u20131940 was characterized by considerable warming; and the period 1940\u20131970 experienced another global cooling. From 1880 to 1970, the model in Fig. 8B reproduces this oscillating pattern more precisely (corr. coeff. r = 0.79) than the CMIP6 GCM ensemble average simulation depicted in Fig. 8A (corr. coeff. r = 0.74). Thus, Fig. 8 illustrates that the suggested model<\/strong> (red curve, Fig. 8B) exhibits a multidecadal modulation that correlates significantly better with the temperature record (blue curve) than the GCM ensemble average simulation (red curve, Fig. 8A).<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The different performance<\/strong> of the CMIP6 GCM ensemble average simulation and of the proposed regression model in reproducing the temperature pattern from 1850 to 1950 becomes more evident if a quadratic upward trend is detrended from the records<\/strong>. The correlation coefficient is r = 0.45 using the GCM ensemble average simulation (Fig. 8A\u2019), and r = 0.55 using the proposed regression model (Fig. 8B\u2019).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This result suggests that the observed multi-decadal modulation of the
temperature records could have been mostly determined by solar forcings,
and not by chaotic internal oscillations of the climate system.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

The IPCC<\/strong> (Solomon and et al., 2007; Stocker and et al., 2014; Masson-Delmotte et al., 2021) conclusion that the Sun\u2019s role in climate change has been negligible<\/strong> since the pre-industrial period (1850\u20131900) derives from the fact that this organization only consider the solar climatic signature produced by the present-day GCMs.<\/strong> These models, however, are computer programs that can only employ equations describing physical mechanisms that are already well known. Anything unknown or ambiguous cannot be included in the GCM software. If the climatic influence of neglected physical processes is significant,<\/strong> the reductionist approach<\/strong> employed in the GCMs for assessing climate change attributions may be completely inappropriate for the task.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The CMIP6 GCMs appear to greatly underestimate the Sun\u2019s role in climate change because of two major limitations:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(i) erroneous solar forcings have likely been integrated into the models; and<\/em>
(ii) TSI alone appears to likely be not the most important solar forcing.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additional solar-magnetism related forcings and associated mechanisms are not included in the GCMs because they are currently poorly understood, despite the fact that there are several empirical indications that they might sufficiently modulate the cloud cover system<\/strong> (by 5% or less) to explain a significant component of the observed climatic changes (Svensmark and Friis-Christensen, 1997, Shaviv, 2002, Svensmark et al., 2016, Easterbrook, 2019, Svensmark, 2022; ). In fact, Table 1 shows that the actual climate sensitivity to TSA variations,<\/strong> which is expressed by kS, can be 4-7 times greater than the climate sensitivity to radiative forcing alone<\/strong>, which was denoted by kA.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, about 80% of the solar influence on the climate <\/strong><\/em>could be generated<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

by processes other than direct TSI forcing. <\/strong><\/em>If this result is correct,<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

several solar-climate mechanisms must be thoroughly investigated<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

and fully understood before reliable GCMs can be developed.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Sun Rules, and Warming from CO2 is Impossible<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

A complement to Scafetta\u2019s study is a Quadrant article by Mark Imisides explaining the geophysical realities ruling out global warming from CO2.  DIY ocean heating  <\/strong><\/a>(Hint:  It\u2019s the water, isn\u2019t it?) Excerpts in italics with my bolds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scarcely a day goes by without us being warned of coastal inundation by rising seas due to global warming.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carbon dioxide, we are told, traps heat that has been irradiated by the oceans,
and this warms the oceans and melts the polar ice caps.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While this seems a plausible proposition at first glance, when one actually examines it closely a major flaw<\/strong> emerges. In a nutshell, water takes a lot of energy to heat up, and air doesn\u2019t contain much<\/strong>. In fact, on a volume\/volume basis, the ratio of heat capacities is about 3300 to 1.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This means that to heat 1 litre of water by 1\u02daC it would take 3300 litres of air
that was 2\u02daC hotter, or 1 litre of air that was about 3300\u02daC hotter!<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This shouldn\u2019t surprise anyone<\/strong>. If you ran a cold bath and then tried to heat it by putting a dozen heaters in the room, does anyone believe that the water would ever get hot?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem gets even stickier when you consider the size of the ocean.
Basically, there is too much water and not enough air.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ocean<\/strong> contains a colossal 1,500,000,000,000,000,000,000 litres of water!<\/strong>  To heat it, even by a small amount, takes a staggering amount of energy. To heat it by a mere 1\u02daC,<\/strong> for example, an astonishing 6,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 joules of energy are required.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s put this amount of energy in perspective. If we<\/strong> all turned off all our appliances and went and lived in caves, and then devoted every<\/strong> coal, nuclear, gas, hydro, wind and solar power plant to just heating the ocean, it would take a breathtaking 32,000 years to heat the ocean by just this 1\u02daC!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In short, our influence on our climate, even if we really tried, is miniscule!<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So it makes sense to ask the question \u2013 if the ocean were to be heated by greenhouse warming of the atmosphere, how hot would the air have to get? If the entire ocean is heated by 1\u02daC, how much would the air have to be heated by to contain enough heat to do the job?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, unfortunately for every ton of water there is only a kilogram of air.<\/strong> Taking into account the relative heat capacities and absolute masses, we arrive at the astonishing figure of 4,000\u02daC.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is, if we wanted to heat the entire ocean by 1\u02daC,
and wanted to do it by heating the air above it,
we\u2019d have to heat the air to about 4,000\u02daC hotter than the water.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And another problem is that air sits on top of water \u2013 how would hot air heat deep into the ocean?<\/strong> Even if the surface warmed, the warm water would just sit on top of the cold water.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, if the ocean were being heated by greenhouse heating of the air, we would see a system with enormous thermal lag<\/strong> \u2013 for the ocean to be only slightly warmer, the land would have to be substantially warmer, and the air much, much warmer (to create the temperature gradient that would facilitate the transfer of heat from the air to the water<\/strong>).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore any measurable warmth in the ocean<\/strong> would be accompanied by a huge and obvious anomaly in the air temperatures<\/strong>, and we would not have to bother looking at ocean temperatures at all.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So if the air doesn\u2019t contain enough energy to heat
the oceans or melt the ice caps, what does?<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The earth is tilted on its axis, and this gives us our seasons.<\/strong> When the southern hemisphere is tilted towards the sun,<\/strong> we have more direct sunlight and more of it (longer days).<\/strong> When it is tilted away from the sun, we have less direct sunlight and less of it (shorter days).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The direct result of this is that in summer it is hot and in winter it is cold.<\/strong> In winter we run the heaters in our cars, and in summer the air conditioners. In winter the polar caps freeze over and in summer 60-70% of them melt (about ten million square kilometres). In summer the water is warmer and winter it is cooler (ask any surfer).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of these changes are directly determined
by the amount of sunlight that we get.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the clouds clear and bathe us in sunlight, we don\u2019t take off our jumper because of greenhouse heating of the atmosphere, but because of the direct heat caused by the sunlight on our body. The sun\u2019s influence is direct, obvious, and instantaneous.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the enormous influence of the sun on our climate is so obvious, then, by what act of madness do we look at a variation of a fraction of a percent in any of these variables<\/strong>, and not look to the sun as the cause?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why<\/strong>\u00a0on earth (pun intended) do we\u00a0attribute any heating of the oceans to carbon dioxide,<\/strong>\u00a0when there is a far more obvious culprit, and when such a straightforward examination of the thermodynamics render it impossible.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By design, climate models exclude solar forcing of earth\u2019s climate,
\nand perform poorly without it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":263288,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691820404,691818056,691820403,691820402,691818076,691818089],"class_list":{"0":"post-263276","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-1890-1910-solar-minimum","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-climate-models-2","11":"tag-cmip6-gcms","12":"tag-co2","13":"tag-ippc","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00does-the-sun-s-output-affect-climate-change-186252-1_1280.webp?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-16uo","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":348367,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=348367","url_meta":{"origin":263276,"position":0},"title":"Global Warming Abates in Autumn\u00a02024","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Hot, Hot, Hot. You will have noticed that the term \u201cclimate change\u201d is now synonymous with \u201csummer\u201d. Since the northern hemisphere is where most of the world\u2019s land, people and media are located, two typical summer months and a hot European August have been depicted as the fires of hell\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO2)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO2)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Autumn-In-Europe-Regent-Park-London-UK-featured.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Autumn-In-Europe-Regent-Park-London-UK-featured.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Autumn-In-Europe-Regent-Park-London-UK-featured.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Autumn-In-Europe-Regent-Park-London-UK-featured.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Autumn-In-Europe-Regent-Park-London-UK-featured.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":393316,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=393316","url_meta":{"origin":263276,"position":1},"title":"Climate Oscillations 12: The Causes & Significance","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"While internal variability may play a role in our observed oscillations, it is possible that gravitational forces and changes in solar output provide the pacing of the oscillations. Since all climate oscillations clearly influence the others through a mechanism named \u201cteleconnections,\u201d if the pacing of a few of the oscillations\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"astronomical periods\"","block_context":{"text":"astronomical periods","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=astronomical-periods"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":305733,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=305733","url_meta":{"origin":263276,"position":2},"title":"Climate Model Bias 3: Solar Input","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In\u00a0part 2\u00a0we discussed the IPCC hypothesis of climate change that assumes humans and our greenhouse gas emissions and land use choices are the climate change \u201ccontrol knob.\u201d\u00a0This hypothesis underpins their attempts to model Earth\u2019s climate. But the model output fails to match many critical observations and in some cases the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-42.png?fit=1200%2C872&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-42.png?fit=1200%2C872&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-42.png?fit=1200%2C872&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-42.png?fit=1200%2C872&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-42.png?fit=1200%2C872&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":429506,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=429506","url_meta":{"origin":263276,"position":3},"title":"Stefani on the Sun vs. CO2 as climate drivers","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/03\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Frank Stefani, of the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Institute of Fluid Dynamics, has published a very interesting new paper that compares the solar \u201caa\u201d index and CO2 emissions to global SST (sea surface temperatures using the HadSST4.2 dataset) and finds a CO2 sensitivity (TCR or the \u201cTransient Climate Response\u201d) of 1.1 to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0Screenshot-2026-03-04-124010.png?fit=1200%2C623&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0Screenshot-2026-03-04-124010.png?fit=1200%2C623&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0Screenshot-2026-03-04-124010.png?fit=1200%2C623&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0Screenshot-2026-03-04-124010.png?fit=1200%2C623&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0Screenshot-2026-03-04-124010.png?fit=1200%2C623&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":385343,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=385343","url_meta":{"origin":263276,"position":4},"title":"Scafetta: Climate Models Have\u00a0Issues","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/06\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) global climate models\u00a0(GCMs) assess\u00a0that nearly\u00a0100% of global surface warming\u00a0observed\u00a0between 1850\u20131900 and 2011\u20132020 is attributable to\u00a0anthropogenic drivers like\u00a0greenhouse gas emissions.\u00a0These models\u00a0also generate future climate projections based on shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), aiding in risk assessment and the development of costly \u201cNet-Zero\u201d climate mitigation strategies.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":266612,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=266612","url_meta":{"origin":263276,"position":5},"title":"Understanding the role of the sun in climate change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Although the sun provides nearly all the energy needed to warm the planet, its contribution to climate change remains widely questioned. Many empirically based studies claim that it has a significant effect on climate, while others (often based on computer global climate simulations) claim that it has a small effect.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate warming\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate warming","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-warming"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-290.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-290.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-290.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-290.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/263276","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=263276"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/263276\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":263290,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/263276\/revisions\/263290"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/263288"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=263276"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=263276"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=263276"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}