{"id":262909,"date":"2023-06-19T19:50:45","date_gmt":"2023-06-19T17:50:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=262909"},"modified":"2023-06-19T19:50:48","modified_gmt":"2023-06-19T17:50:48","slug":"graphic-lying","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=262909","title":{"rendered":"Graphic Lying"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

An online friend of mine alerted me to a curious change in the Greenland Ice Sheet. From the\u00a0Danish Polar Portal<\/a>, here are two of their graphics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1. Surface Mass Balance (SMB), polar year 2022-2023.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Polar Portal site says:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

The blue curve shows the current season\u2019s surface mass balance measured in gigatonnes (1 Gt is 1 billion tonnes and corresponds to 1 cubic kilometre of water).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The dark grey curve traces the mean value from the period 1981-2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The light grey band shows differences from year to year. For any calendar day, the band shows the range over the 30 years (in the period 1981-2010), however with the lowest and highest values for each day omitted.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

And what is the surface mass balance (SMB) when it\u2019s at home? Again from the Polar Portal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

The difference between snowfall and runoff is known as the SURFACE mass balance. It is always positive over the course of a year as not all fallen snow runs off the ice sheet again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The surface mass balance is NOT identical to the TOTAL mass balance (i.e. overall gain or loss of the ice cap), which also includes the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs, the melting of glacier tongues as they come into contact with warm seawater and frictional and other effects at the bottom of the ice sheet.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

From my perspective, the oddity is that despite the warmer-than-usual conditions of the North Atlantic for this time of year, the surface mass balance has grown more than at any time in the period 1981-2010. Go figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One thing you can depend on the weather to do, and that is, it won\u2019t do what you depend on it to do \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this is just the surface mass balance (SMB). The total mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet continues to decline. And here\u2019s where the graphic trickery comes into play. Folks like the Polar Portal are more than happy to show graphs of the cumulative loss of Greenland ice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 2. Polar Portal graph of ice loss since 2003<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking for a longer dataset, here\u2019s one I made, based on the\u00a0British Antarctic Survey (IMBIE) data<\/a>. Of course, I couldn\u2019t make it all boring like most graphs. I like my graphs to be little works of art.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 3. Cumulative ice mass loss since 1992, Greenland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

YIKES! At the rate that it\u2019s falling, we\u2019re clearly about to lose the Greenland Ice Cap entirely \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 however, this is just the loss. What kind of difference does this make to the total mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet? Figure 4 shows that change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 4. Change in total Greenland ice mass, 1992-2021.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once again, it looks like we\u2019re on the brink of a precipice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, there\u2019s still one small detail to take into account. When we\u2019re looking at totals of things, like changes in the total Greenland ice mass, it\u2019s important that the vertical \u201cY\u201d axis starts at zero. This is called a \u201czero-based\u201d graph, and in the wonderful world of climate science, they\u2019re pretty rare. Figure 5 shows why the alarmists don\u2019t like them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 5. Zero-based graph of the change in total Greenland ice mass, 1992-2021. Note that this is the exact same data as in Figure 4 just above.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whew! Looks like the catastrophe is averted. And in fact, if Greenland continues to lose ice at the current rate, it will all be gone around the year 14700AD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[After comments, edited to add \u2026] Are there times when non-zero-based graphs are appropriate? Absolutely. We need both kinds of graphs. But far too often these days, non-zero-based graphs are just used to frighten folks who are unaware of the relative sizes of things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Puts me in mind of the old joke. A scientist says \u201cThe sun will go nova in five billion years\u201d<\/em>. One of the people in the audience stands up and says \u201cWhat! That\u2019s terrifying! What did you say?\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The scientist repeats his statement, and the man says \u201cOh, thank heavens. I figured I was gonna have to change my lifestyle. I thought you said five million<\/strong> years!\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crazy world, crazy tune \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regards to all, h\/t to David Hart,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yeah, I know you\u2019ve heard it before:<\/strong> When you comment, please quote the exact words<\/strong> you are referring to. It avoids all kinds of misunderstandings.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The scientist repeats his statement, and the man says\u00a0\u201cOh, thank heavens. I figured I was gonna have to change my lifestyle. I thought you said five\u00a0million\u00a0years!\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":262920,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691820346],"class_list":["post-262909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-greenland-ice-sheet","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0lying.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-16ot","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":255171,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=255171","url_meta":{"origin":262909,"position":0},"title":"Study: Northern Greenland Was Ice Free, Forested ~125k Years Ago, Adding 3 Meters To Sea Levels","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/28\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"For some reason it is assumed by mainstream scientists that CO2 has been driving changes to the Greenland ice sheet in recent decades even though measurements indicate the CO2 greenhouse effect (GHE) impact is close to 0 W\/m\u00b2 over Greenland.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ocean\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ocean","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ocean"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0North-01-A-passenger-boat-near-Ilulissat-and-the-ice-fjord-in-Greenland.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0North-01-A-passenger-boat-near-Ilulissat-and-the-ice-fjord-in-Greenland.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0North-01-A-passenger-boat-near-Ilulissat-and-the-ice-fjord-in-Greenland.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0North-01-A-passenger-boat-near-Ilulissat-and-the-ice-fjord-in-Greenland.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0North-01-A-passenger-boat-near-Ilulissat-and-the-ice-fjord-in-Greenland.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":276745,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=276745","url_meta":{"origin":262909,"position":1},"title":"Greenland\u2019s 2022-\u201923 Ice Coverage Well Above 1981-2010 Average Despite \u2018Global Boiling\u2019 Rhetoric","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Since the early 2000s there has been no net change in the Greenland ice sheet mean annual surface temperature, as well as no net change in melt extent percentage.","rel":"","context":"In \"Greenland mass balance\"","block_context":{"text":"Greenland mass balance","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=greenland-mass-balance"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00j_Iceberg_Sail_3-3-2018_3.jpeg?fit=1200%2C845&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00j_Iceberg_Sail_3-3-2018_3.jpeg?fit=1200%2C845&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00j_Iceberg_Sail_3-3-2018_3.jpeg?fit=1200%2C845&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00j_Iceberg_Sail_3-3-2018_3.jpeg?fit=1200%2C845&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, 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If all of its ice was to melt, global sea levels could be expected to rise by about 25 feet. However, this would take more than 10,000 years at the current rates of melting. From Science Matters\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"2023\u00a0Update\"","block_context":{"text":"2023\u00a0Update","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2023-update"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00D7000_DSC5902_edt.jpg?fit=1200%2C795&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00D7000_DSC5902_edt.jpg?fit=1200%2C795&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00D7000_DSC5902_edt.jpg?fit=1200%2C795&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00D7000_DSC5902_edt.jpg?fit=1200%2C795&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00D7000_DSC5902_edt.jpg?fit=1200%2C795&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":254671,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=254671","url_meta":{"origin":262909,"position":3},"title":"Massive iceberg discharges during the last ice age had no impact on nearby Greenland, raising new questions about climate dynamics","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/25\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"During the last ice age, massive icebergs periodically broke off from an ice sheet covering a large swath of North America and discharged rapidly melting ice into the North Atlantic Ocean around Greenland, triggering abrupt climate change impacts across the globe.","rel":"","context":"In \"Greenland\"","block_context":{"text":"Greenland","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=greenland"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00northern-lights-by-mads-pihl-12.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00northern-lights-by-mads-pihl-12.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00northern-lights-by-mads-pihl-12.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00northern-lights-by-mads-pihl-12.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00northern-lights-by-mads-pihl-12.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":440478,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=440478","url_meta":{"origin":262909,"position":4},"title":"Greenland Ice Varies, Don\u2019t Panic 2026\u00a0Update","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/19\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is Earth's second-largest ice mass after Antarctica, spanning about 1.7 million km\u00b2 with an average thickness of roughly 2 km (and up to 3+ km in places). It holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by approximately 7 meters (23 feet) if it melted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Greenland-Ice-Varies-Dont-Panic-2026-Update.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Greenland-Ice-Varies-Dont-Panic-2026-Update.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Greenland-Ice-Varies-Dont-Panic-2026-Update.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Greenland-Ice-Varies-Dont-Panic-2026-Update.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":272682,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272682","url_meta":{"origin":262909,"position":5},"title":"Claims that \u2018Global Boiling\u2019 Led to \u201cShocking\u201d Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet are Nonsense \u2013 the Ice Sheet is Currently Bigger Than Normal","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The new era of \u2018global boiling\u2019 has brought a return of the much loved climate scare story featuring the imminent demise of the Greenland ice sheet. The\u00a0Daily Mail\u00a0recently ran a headline noting the \u2018Impact of Global Boiling\u2018, saying it has \u201cshocking\u201d photos showing how much the ice sheet has melted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-402.png?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-402.png?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-402.png?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-402.png?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-402.png?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262909","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=262909"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262909\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":262922,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262909\/revisions\/262922"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/262920"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=262909"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=262909"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=262909"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}