{"id":262703,"date":"2023-06-18T14:34:03","date_gmt":"2023-06-18T12:34:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=262703"},"modified":"2023-06-18T14:34:06","modified_gmt":"2023-06-18T12:34:06","slug":"epic-fail-in-americas-heartland-climate-models-greatly-overestimate-corn-belt-warming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=262703","title":{"rendered":"Epic Fail in America\u2019s Heartland: Climate Models Greatly Overestimate Corn Belt Warming"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"482\" data-attachment-id=\"262706\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=262706\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00corn-belt-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C682&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1024,682\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"00corn-belt-1\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00corn-belt-1.jpg?fit=723%2C482&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00corn-belt-1.jpg?resize=723%2C482&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-262706\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00corn-belt-1.jpg?w=1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00corn-belt-1.jpg?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00corn-belt-1.jpg?resize=768%2C512&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From \u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.drroyspencer.com\/\">Roy Spencer, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><small>June 17th, 2023 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the last decade I\u2019ve been providing long-range U.S. Corn Belt forecasts to a company that monitors and forecasts global grain production and market forces. My continuing theme has been, \u201cdon\u2019t believe gloom and doom forecasts for the future of the U.S. Corn Belt\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The climate models relied upon by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are known to overestimate warming compared to observations. Depending upon the region (global? U.S.?), temperature metric (surface? deep ocean? lower atmosphere?) and time period (last 150 years? last 50 years?) the average model over-estimate of warming can be either large or small.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But nowhere is it more dramatic than in the U.S. Corn Belt during the growing season (June, July, August).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The following plot shows the 50-year area-averaged temperature trend during 1973-2022 for the 12-state corn belt as observed with the official NOAA homogenized\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncei.noaa.gov\/access\/monitoring\/climate-at-a-glance\/statewide\/time-series\">surface temperature product<\/a>\u00a0(blue bar) versus the same metric from 36 CMIP6 climate models (red bars, SSP245 emissions scenario, output\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/climexp.knmi.nl\/selectfield_cmip6.cgi?id=someone@somewhere\">here<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"262704\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=262704\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Corn-belt-JJA-Tas-obs-vs-CMIP6-550x465-1.jpg?fit=550%2C465&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"550,465\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0Corn-belt-JJA-Tas-obs-vs-CMIP6-550&amp;#215;465-1\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Corn-belt-JJA-Tas-obs-vs-CMIP6-550x465-1.jpg?fit=550%2C465&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Corn-belt-JJA-Tas-obs-vs-CMIP6-550x465-1.jpg?resize=723%2C611&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-262704\" width=\"723\" height=\"611\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Corn-belt-JJA-Tas-obs-vs-CMIP6-550x465-1.jpg?w=550&amp;ssl=1 550w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Corn-belt-JJA-Tas-obs-vs-CMIP6-550x465-1.jpg?resize=300%2C254&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This kind of sanity check is needed because efforts to change U.S. energy policy are based upon climate model predictions, which are often wildly out of line with observed history. This is why environmentalists emphasize models (which can show dramatic change) over actual observations (which are usually unremarkable).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For the last decade I\u2019ve been providing long-range U.S. Corn Belt forecasts to a company that monitors and forecasts global grain production and market forces. My continuing theme has been, \u201cdon\u2019t believe gloom and doom forecasts for the future of the U.S. Corn Belt\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":262706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818153,691818324,691820312,691820311],"class_list":["post-262703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-models","tag-cmip6","tag-epic-fail","tag-u-s-energy-policy","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00corn-belt-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C682&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-16l9","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":264174,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=264174","url_meta":{"origin":262703,"position":0},"title":"PJ Media, Steve Milloy, and Dr. Roy Spencer Show Climate Models Overestimate Corn Belt Warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/27\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent post at the news and opinion website PJ Media makes the point that the climate models used to promote green policies have overestimated the warming seen in the Corn Belt of the United States. This is true, and in fact the temperature data from the region shows a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":298638,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=298638","url_meta":{"origin":262703,"position":1},"title":"New Article on Climate Models vs. Observations","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/28\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Since commenter Nate objects to my inclusion of the Corn Belt graph (yes, it is a small area), please go to the actual article link at Heritage.org where 2 out of the 3 graphs I provide are for global average temperatures.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00Screenshot-2024-01-28-091316.png?fit=1200%2C880&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00Screenshot-2024-01-28-091316.png?fit=1200%2C880&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00Screenshot-2024-01-28-091316.png?fit=1200%2C880&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00Screenshot-2024-01-28-091316.png?fit=1200%2C880&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00Screenshot-2024-01-28-091316.png?fit=1200%2C880&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":299201,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=299201","url_meta":{"origin":262703,"position":2},"title":"Spencer vs. Schmidt: My Response to RealClimate.org Criticisms","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/31\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"What follows is a response to Gavin Schmidt\u2019s blog post at RealClimate.org entitled\u00a0Spencer\u2019s Shenanigans\u00a0in which he takes issue with my claims in\u00a0Global Warming: Observations vs. Climate Models. As I read through his criticism, he seems to be trying too hard to refute my claims while using weak (and even non-existent)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/001979-2023-Tsfc-trends-obs-vs-CMIP6-restricted-ECS-range-550x516-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/001979-2023-Tsfc-trends-obs-vs-CMIP6-restricted-ECS-range-550x516-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/001979-2023-Tsfc-trends-obs-vs-CMIP6-restricted-ECS-range-550x516-1.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":279526,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=279526","url_meta":{"origin":262703,"position":3},"title":"Wrong, Euronews, Fire Ants Are Unlikely to Flourish in Most of Europe","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/19\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The online publication Euronews\u2019 \u201cGreen\u201d section posted an article claiming that invasive fire ants are \u201clikely\u201d to spread due to climate change. This claim is a stretch, based on predicted warming from climate models, and makes only brief mention of the fact that Sicily and other parts of Europe are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/078abef675bc5d16f95ae05f6e31d410a.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/078abef675bc5d16f95ae05f6e31d410a.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/078abef675bc5d16f95ae05f6e31d410a.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/078abef675bc5d16f95ae05f6e31d410a.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/078abef675bc5d16f95ae05f6e31d410a.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":259006,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=259006","url_meta":{"origin":262703,"position":4},"title":"Record World Cereal Outputs Forecast for\u00a02023\/24","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/25\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"What climate crisis?","rel":"","context":"In \"Cereal\"","block_context":{"text":"Cereal","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=cereal"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00wheat-field-wheat-cereals-grain-wallpaper.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00wheat-field-wheat-cereals-grain-wallpaper.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00wheat-field-wheat-cereals-grain-wallpaper.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00wheat-field-wheat-cereals-grain-wallpaper.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00wheat-field-wheat-cereals-grain-wallpaper.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":298481,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=298481","url_meta":{"origin":262703,"position":5},"title":"Hot Climate Models Not Fit For\u00a0Policymaking","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/27\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"While the climate system has warmed somewhat over the past five decades, the popular perception of a \u201cclimate crisis\u201d and resulting calls for economically significant regulation of CO2 emissions is not supported by science.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0climate-models-epic-fail.webp?fit=999%2C775&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0climate-models-epic-fail.webp?fit=999%2C775&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0climate-models-epic-fail.webp?fit=999%2C775&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0climate-models-epic-fail.webp?fit=999%2C775&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262703","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=262703"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262703\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":262707,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262703\/revisions\/262707"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/262706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=262703"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=262703"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=262703"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}