{"id":262462,"date":"2023-06-16T20:45:28","date_gmt":"2023-06-16T18:45:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=262462"},"modified":"2023-06-16T20:45:41","modified_gmt":"2023-06-16T18:45:41","slug":"what-if-climate-is-self-regulating","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=262462","title":{"rendered":"What If Climate is Self-Regulating?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Andy Kessler writes at WSJ Can the Climate Heal Itself? <\/strong><\/a> Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dissenters from the catastrophe consensus on warming are worth listening to.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stop with all the existential-crisis talk.<\/strong> President Biden said, \u201cClimate change is literally an existential threat to our nation and to the world.\u201d Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also talks about the \u201cexistential threat\u201d of climate change<\/strong>. National security adviser Jake Sullivan identifies an \u201caccelerating climate crisis\u201d as one reason<\/strong> for a \u201cnew consensus\u201d for government picking winners and losers<\/strong> in the economy. Be wary of those touting consensus.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But what if the entire premise is wrong?<\/strong> What if the Earth is self-healing?<\/strong> Before you hurl the \u201cclimate denier\u201d invective at me, let\u2019s think this through. Earth has been around for 4.5 billion years\u2014 living organisms for 3.7 billion.<\/strong> Surely, an enlightened engineer might think, the planet\u2019s creator built in a mechanism to regulate heat, or we wouldn\u2019t still be here to worry about it.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The\u00a0theory of climate change<\/strong>\u00a0is that\u00a0excess carbon dioxide and methane<\/strong>\u00a0trap the sun\u2019s radiation in the atmosphere, and these man-made greenhouse gases reflect more of that heat back to Earth, warming the planet. Pretty simple. Eventually, we reach a tipping point when\u00a0positive feedback loops<\/strong>\u00a0form\u2014less ice to reflect sunlight, warm oceans that can no longer absorb carbon dioxide\u2014and then we fry, existentially. So lose those gas stoves and carbon spewing Suburbans.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Note nearly half incoming solar energy is not absorbed by Earth\u2019s surface.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But nothing is simple.\u00a0What about negative feedback loops?<\/strong>\u00a0Examples: human sweat and its cooling condensation or our irises dilating or constricting based on the amount of light coming in. Clouds, which can block the sun or trap its radiation, are rarely mentioned in climate talk.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Why? Because\u00a0clouds are notoriously difficult to model in climate simulations.<\/strong>\u00a0Steven Koonin, a New York University professor and author of \u201cUnsettled,\u201d tells me that today\u2019s computing power can typically model the Earth\u2019s atmosphere in grids 60 miles on a side. Pretty coarse. So, Mr. Koonin says, \u201cthe\u00a0properties of clouds in climate models are often adjusted or \u2018tuned\u2019<\/strong>\u00a0to match observations.\u201d Tuned!<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Last month the coddling modelers at the United Nations\u2019 World Meteorological Organization stated that\u00a0\u201cwarming El Ni\u00f1o\u201d and \u201chuman-induced climate change\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0mean there is a \u201c66% likelihood that annual average global\u00a0temperatures will exceed the threshold<\/strong>\u00a0of 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by 2027.\u201d Notice that El Ni\u00f1o is mentioned first.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Richard Lindzen, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and lead author of an early Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, told me, \u201cTemperatures in the tropics remain relatively constant compared with changes in the tropics-to-pole temperatures.\u00a0The tropics-polar difference is about 40 degrees Celsius today but was 20 degrees during the warm Eocene Epoch<\/strong>\u00a0and 60 degrees during Ice Ages.\u201d This difference has more to do with\u00a0changes in the Earth\u2019s rotation<\/strong>, like wobbling, than anything else. According to Mr. Lindzen, this effect is some\u00a070 times as great as human-made greenhouse gases.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

OK, back to clouds. Cumulus clouds, the puffy ones often called thunderclouds, are an important convection element, carrying heat from the Earth\u2019s surface to the upper atmosphere. Above them are high-altitude cirrus clouds, which can reflect heat back toward the surface. A 2001 Lindzen paper, however, suggests that high-level cirrus clouds in the tropics dissipate as temperatures rise<\/strong>. These thinning cirrus clouds allow more heat to escape<\/strong>. It\u2019s called the Iris Effect, like a temperature-controlled vent<\/strong> opener for an actual greenhouse so you don\u2019t (existentially) fry your plants. Yes, Earth has a safety valve.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Lindzen says, \u201cThis more than offsets the effect of greenhouse gases.\u201d<\/strong> As you can imagine, theories debunking the climate consensus are met with rebuttals and more papers. Often, Mr. Lindzen points out, critics, \u201cto maintain the warming narrative, adjust their models, especially coverage and reflection or albedo of clouds in the tropics.\u201d More tuning.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A 2021 paper co-authored by Mr. Lindzen shows strong support for an Iris Effect.\u00a0\u00a0Maybe Earth really was built by an engineer.<\/strong>\u00a0Proof? None other than astronomer Carl Sagan described the Faint Young Sun Paradox that,\u00a02.5 billion years ago, the sun\u2019s energy was 30% less, but Earth\u2019s climate was basically the same as today.<\/strong>\u00a0Cirrus clouds likely formed to trap heat\u2014a closed Iris and a negative feedback loop at work.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 2: At higher temperatures there are more thunderstorms over the ocean and the area without high level clouds (dry and clear) expands further and thus allows more heat to radiate off into space (strong OLR) than when temperatures are lower, i.e. when the iris is smaller. Source: Figure 1 from MS15.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a 2015 Nature Geoscience paper, Thorsten Mauritsen and Bjorn Stephen at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology reran climate models using the Iris Effect<\/strong> and found them better at modeling historic observations.<\/strong> No need for tuning. Wouldn\u2019t it be nice if the U.N. used realistic cloud and climate models?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earth has warmed, but I\u2019m convinced negative feedback loops will save us. Dismissing the Iris Effect or detuning it isn\u2019t science. Sadly, climate science has morphed into climate rhetoric.<\/strong> And note, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen explained in April that green spending \u201cis, at its core, about turning the climate crisis into an economic opportunity.\u201d Hmmm. \u201cCatastrophic,\u201d \u201cexistential\u201d and \u201ccrisis\u201d are cloudy thinking. Negative feedback is welcome<\/strong>. Dissenters from the catastrophe consensus on warming are worth listening to.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Footnote\u2013Phanerozoic Temperatures<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Maurice Lavigne commented that the best evidence of our self-regulating climate is found in the Phanerozoic temperature record.  I had to find out what he meant, which led me to discover this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The PhanSST global database of Phanerozoic sea surface temperature proxy data<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And this graph from Nir Shaviv and Jan Veizer:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Cosmic radiation and temperature through Phanerozoic according to Nir Shaviv and Jan Veizer.<\/strong>\u00a0The vertical\u00a0axis<\/strong>\u00a0on the\u00a0left<\/strong>\u00a0represents the\u00a0temperature as deviations from present<\/strong>\u00a0temperature. The vertical axis on the\u00a0right<\/strong>\u00a0shows the\u00a0cosmic radiation as multiples of radiation today<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 today\u2019s radiation is set to 1. Note that the\u00a0right scale is inverted<\/strong>\u00a0so that strong radiation can be compared to low temperature. The\u00a0red curve represents the temperature and the blue radiation.<\/strong>\u00a0Temperature and cosmic radiation appear to have a\u00a0very good correlation.<\/strong>\u00a0The\u00a0horizontal axis<\/strong>\u00a0represents\u00a0time through Phanerozoic\u2019s more than 500 million years<\/strong>. Note that the Carboniferous is divided into \u201cMissisipian\u201d and \u201cPennsylvanian\u201d, that is an American custom, referring to different types of coal from the coal mines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The image above comes from Christopher Scotese PaleoMAP project, showing the dramatic temperature and climate shifts, hothouse to icehouse and everything in between.\u00a0 Finally, a graph showing these temperature cycles unrelated to CO2 concentrations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Also\u00a0More Evidence of Nature\u2019s Sunscreen<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Greenhouse with adjustable sun screens to control warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dissenters from the catastrophe consensus on warming are worth listening to.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":262484,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818153,691818090,691818432,691818076,691820265,691818200],"class_list":{"0":"post-262462","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-climate-models","10":"tag-climate-warning","11":"tag-clouds","12":"tag-co2","13":"tag-cosmic-radiation","14":"tag-el-nino","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00planeta-zemlya-i-solnce-v-kosmose.jpg?fit=1920%2C1200&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-16hg","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":255216,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=255216","url_meta":{"origin":262462,"position":0},"title":"Dr Richard Lindzen exposes climate change as a politicised power play motivated by malice and profit","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Veteran climate expert Dr. Richard Lindzen made a name for himself before the fundamentally flawed field of climate science that we know today was invented.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate catastrophe prediction\"","block_context":{"text":"climate catastrophe prediction","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-catastrophe-prediction"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00Screenshot-2023-04-29-130354.png?fit=898%2C507&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00Screenshot-2023-04-29-130354.png?fit=898%2C507&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00Screenshot-2023-04-29-130354.png?fit=898%2C507&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00Screenshot-2023-04-29-130354.png?fit=898%2C507&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":366706,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=366706","url_meta":{"origin":262462,"position":1},"title":"Trump: Homeland Security Not in Climate Change\u00a0Business","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"18\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Steve Milloy reported on X:\u00a0 President Trump deports \u201cclimate change\u201d from the Department of Homeland Security: \u201cTop officials at the US Department of Homeland Security received a memo\u00a0on Friday ordering an immediate stop to work connected to climate change and the elimination of climate-related terms across the agency.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0wp8620197.webp?fit=1200%2C822&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0wp8620197.webp?fit=1200%2C822&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0wp8620197.webp?fit=1200%2C822&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0wp8620197.webp?fit=1200%2C822&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0wp8620197.webp?fit=1200%2C822&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":260487,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=260487","url_meta":{"origin":262462,"position":2},"title":"Friday Funny \u2013 The Ultimate Climate Argument Rebuttal Tool","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A reminder that you can ignore anyone saying \u2018There is a climate crisis\u2019. 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