{"id":261947,"date":"2023-06-13T14:57:18","date_gmt":"2023-06-13T12:57:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=261947"},"modified":"2023-06-13T14:57:21","modified_gmt":"2023-06-13T12:57:21","slug":"britains-green-energy-disaster-should-be-an-awful-warning-to-americans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=261947","title":{"rendered":"Britain\u2019s green energy disaster should be an awful warning to\u00a0Americans"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n

h\/t Ian Magness<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is an excellent summary:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Last year, the Biden administration set an ambitious new goal for the USA: to deploy 30 gigawatts (GW) of offshore <\/em>wind capacity<\/em><\/a> by the year 2030, increasing US offshore capacity more than seven hundred times over. The UK already has 15 GW of offshore wind, more than 300 times as much as the USA: and our experience should be a terrible warning to Americans.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UK\u2019s electricity prices are the highest since records began in 1920 and are now amongst the highest in all Europe. One reason for this is obvious: slightly less than half our electricity comes from gas-burning Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGTs) and gas now costs \u00a390 per megawatt-hour (MWh), nearly five times higher than normal. CCGTs are cheap to build (around \u00a3650m per GW) and operate. In normal times they would generate electricity at a total cost of \u00a340 per MWh. That\u2019s now risen to nearly \u00a3150\/MWh, thanks to <\/em>Vladimir Putin<\/em><\/a> and his impact on the gas market.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that\u2019s not the whole story. The other reason why British electricity is so expensive is because we have so much wind power: particularly, so much offshore wind power. Bad though the current situation is, we would be an even worse state if we had built even more offshore wind, as the British government plans to.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As an example, the offshore wind farms Hornsea Two and Moray East were completed in 2022 with capital costs of \u00a32.77 billion per GW and \u00a32.75bn\/GW, more than four times the cost of CCGT capacity. They\u2019re expensive to maintain, which is not surprising since offshore windfarms have all their many generators mounted at the top of 200-metre tall masts far away from land. Estimates of maintenance costs are as high as \u00a3200m per GW installed, per annum. The nominal cost of offshore wind generation is \u00a3170\/MWh \u2013 noticeably higher than that for CCGTs, even in these dire times of high gas prices.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other factor to bear in mind is that not only is wind capacity extremely expensive to build, wind farms do not deliver anything like their rated capacity over time. This is bad news for the customer, because the higher the capacity factor \u2013 that is, the higher the percentage of the rated capacity the powerplant actually delivers over time \u2013 the cheaper the energy. In 2022 the UK\u2019s onshore and offshore windfarms operated with a capacity factor of 33 per cent. In 2021 it was only 29 per cent.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It gets worse. Like most other renewable generation technologies, wind power is unpredictably intermittent and highly variable. Also, since wind turbines are not synchronously connected to the grid, they provide no \u201cgrid inertia\u201d \u2013 more on that shortly. Wind turbines cannot be asked to deliver energy when it is required, and their output changes rapidly. These failings must be mitigated and costed, and users have to pay for these costs on top of the price of the electricity.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2021 the UK annual grid balancing costs reached \u00a34.19 billion, \u00a3150 per household. For context, back in 1995 when we didn\u2019t have much wind power the balancing cost for the grid was a mere \u00a3250 million per annum. A large, and growing, contribution to these costs is constraint management, as when a wind farm producing electricity which isn\u2019t wanted \u2013 perhaps when it is windy in the middle of the night \u2013 is paid not to put that electricity into the grid.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problems and costs don\u2019t stop there. Our transmission grid system was originally designed to link generation centres close to sources of fuel (coal, gas) and load centres such as cities. Now our generation sites are moving further away from load centres.  Our grid transmission system has to be expanded to connect the new renewable generators, which is bad enough when they are on a remote hilltop and worse still when they are out at sea. The <\/em>National Grid<\/em><\/a> estimates that on current plans this work will cost \u00a346 billion \u2013 \u00a31,533 per household \u2013 to 2030.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then there\u2019s grid inertia. The British grid is termed an island grid, which means that we are solely responsible for controlling the grid frequency between tight limits so that things plugged into the grid will work as expected. Frequency control becomes easier as the inertia of the grid system increases. Grid system inertia is a key measure of how resilient the system is in response to transient changes. Inertia is the sum of the energy stored within the rotating mass of the machines (generators and motors) connected directly to the system. Low system inertia increases the risk of rapid system changes, which may then lead to disconnection of load or generation and then system instability. Apart from tree-burning biomass stations and hydro generation, renewables plants bring no inertia to the grid: as the proportion of renewables rises, system inertia falls and the risk of major problems such as blackouts increases.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have attempted to reduce the issue of intermittency by expanding our connections to the European electricity grid \u2013 the hope being that the wind will be blowing somewhere else even if it is not blowing here \u2013 but we\u2019re still exposed to periods when wind generation across the whole of Europe falls near to nothing. And these connections do not help with inertia and stability either because few of the connections to the continent are synchronous connections.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1995 the problem of grid frequency stability required provision of rapidly responding generators capable of changing their combined output at a rate of 0.13 GW per second in order to deal with fluctuations. With the arrival of so much unpredictable wind power, that figure has now increased almost tenfold to 1.15 GW per second!<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Extra services like very rapid response gas generators, required in order to make it possible to connect renewables to the grid, add between \u00a330\/MWh and \u00a350\/MWh to renewables\u2019 cost. Thus the true cost to the customer of offshore wind generators is actually between \u00a3200\/MWh and \u00a3220\/MWh, much more than CCGTs even in these times of ruinously high gas prices.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Phasing out CCGT production will therefore increase domestic electricity prices painfully.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it seems that CCGTs will be phased out much sooner than planned. The government has proposed an expansion to 60 GW of offshore wind by 2030 (capital expenditure \u00a3122 billion) and <\/em>solar<\/em><\/a> to 70 GW by 2035 (capital expenditure to 2030 \u00a330 billion).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is extremely unwise: we still have no way of storing electricity at scale and the planned transitions of home heating and transport to electrical power are progressing weakly and may yet stall completely. Creating such a large solar generation fleet raises the nightmare scenario of early summer mornings, with little demand and the vast majority of generation being solar with zero inertia: massive grid collapses would be all but a certainty. Vast amounts of energy will be generated only to be expensively constrained off and probably wasted, and the scenario of unmet demand \u2013 with attendant blackouts \u2013 will become unavoidable.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UK grid is simply not able to cope with the proposed amounts of renewables.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And we simply cannot afford all this. If we add the costs of an even more extended National Grid, this programme of wind and solar generation expansion will cost \u00a3232 billion \u2013 more than \u00a38,000 per household this decade \u2013 all to be paid for by the suffering energy user. It should be emphasised that these figures do not include the costs of the huge energy storage industry which will also be necessary, whatever that may turn out to be: hydrogen or <\/em>ammonia<\/em><\/a> or something even more dangerous and expensive. Heat pumps and switching to electric vehicles could lift total costs above \u00a31 trillion.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Truly, Americans should look at the British renewables disaster and give thanks that today they have hardly any offshore wind. And they might, looking at the UK, recoil with horror from the plans of the Biden administration: especially as most US offshore wind will need to be floating offshore wind rather than built on the seabed, and so even more expensive.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If either nation would like to reduce carbon emissions and\/or reduce its dependence on fossil fuels supplied by unsavoury overseas regimes, an immediate measure would be to build new, modern, high efficiency CCGT plant which would immediately cut the need for gas and reduce emissions without requiring vast, expensive alterations to the grid and special measures so that they don\u2019t cause it to collapse. We should also begin building new nuclear plant with some genuine urgency, as that is the only genuine, affordable, practical way to seriously cut emissions and achieve secure energy supplies.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Dr Capell Aris PhD has spent his career in the electricity generation sector. He is a former Fellow of the Institute of Engineering and Technology<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/news\/2023\/06\/11\/green-energy-disaster-uk-awful-warning-america\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The other reason why British electricity is so expensive is because we have so much wind power: particularly, so much offshore wind power. Bad though the current situation is, we would be an even worse state if we had built even more offshore wind, as the British government plans to.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":261951,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818902,691820168,691818301,691818181,691820169],"class_list":{"0":"post-261947","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-britain","9":"tag-green-energy-disaster","10":"tag-offshore-wind","11":"tag-renewable-energy","12":"tag-uk-grid","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/08724bceb4716caee6ed4c19e324acd94.jpg?fit=2400%2C1190&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-168X","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":262196,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=262196","url_meta":{"origin":261947,"position":0},"title":"The Potential Pitfalls of an Overly Ambitious Energy Transition: Lessons from Britain\u2019s Green Energy Endeavors","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"These additional costs, combined with the high capital and maintenance expenses of offshore wind farms, significantly impact the price of electricity. The true cost to consumers for offshore wind generation ranges from \u00a3200\/MWh to \u00a3220\/MWh, much higher than the cost of CCGTs.","rel":"","context":"In \"offshore wind\"","block_context":{"text":"offshore wind","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=offshore-wind"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0todor-hristov-7fup.jpg?fit=1200%2C688&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0todor-hristov-7fup.jpg?fit=1200%2C688&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0todor-hristov-7fup.jpg?fit=1200%2C688&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0todor-hristov-7fup.jpg?fit=1200%2C688&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0todor-hristov-7fup.jpg?fit=1200%2C688&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":278249,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=278249","url_meta":{"origin":261947,"position":1},"title":"Guardian: Offshore Wind Fail \u2013 The UK Government Must Make Cheap Renewables More Affordable","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u2018Biggest clean energy disaster in years\u2019: UK auction secures no offshore windfarms","rel":"","context":"In \"British renewable investment\"","block_context":{"text":"British renewable investment","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=british-renewable-investment"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0Offshore_Wind_Power_shutterstock_486643192.jpg?fit=1200%2C560&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0Offshore_Wind_Power_shutterstock_486643192.jpg?fit=1200%2C560&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0Offshore_Wind_Power_shutterstock_486643192.jpg?fit=1200%2C560&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0Offshore_Wind_Power_shutterstock_486643192.jpg?fit=1200%2C560&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0Offshore_Wind_Power_shutterstock_486643192.jpg?fit=1200%2C560&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":216724,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=216724","url_meta":{"origin":261947,"position":2},"title":"Government\u2019s green energy policy is a \u201cnational disaster\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/09\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"In the midst of the worst energy crisis since World War II, wind companies are milking the system by using a perverse loophole.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-26.png?fit=830%2C436&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-26.png?fit=830%2C436&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-26.png?fit=830%2C436&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-26.png?fit=830%2C436&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":292321,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292321","url_meta":{"origin":261947,"position":3},"title":"Britain\u2019s Net Zero Disaster and the Wind Power Scam","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cThis is not about complicated issues of cryptocurrency,\u201d assistant U.S. attorney Nicolas Roos\u00a0declared\u00a0in the Sam Bankman-Fried trial, after accusing the defendant of building FTX on a \u201cpyramid of deceit.\u201d Much the same can be said about the foundations of Britain\u2019s net zero experiment. 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