{"id":260293,"date":"2023-06-02T21:04:45","date_gmt":"2023-06-02T19:04:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=260293"},"modified":"2023-06-02T21:04:56","modified_gmt":"2023-06-02T19:04:56","slug":"thwaites-doomsday-glacier-narrative-collapsestotal-melt-raises-sea-levels-1-2-mm-not-3048-mm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=260293","title":{"rendered":"Thwaites \u2018Doomsday\u2019 Glacier Narrative Collapses\u2026Total Melt Raises Sea Levels 1-2 mm, Not 3048 mm"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[N]o numerical modeling work has shown that Thwaites Glacier is currently undergoing an irreversible retreat.\u201d \u2013 Gudmundsson et al., 2023<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It was only months ago that mainstream US journalists published articles claiming the Thwaites \u201cDoomsday\u201d Glacier has only \u201ca few more years\u201d until it collapses into the sea (ABC News<\/a><\/strong>, CBS News<\/a><\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This \u201cspine-chilling\u201d catastrophe with \u201cglobal implications\u201d would, it was claimed, raise sea levels by the equivalent of 10 feet<\/strong>, or 3,048 mm.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
Image Source:\u00a0ABC News<\/a><\/strong>,\u00a0CBS News<\/a><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But per a study (Gudmundsson et al., 2023<\/a><\/strong>) published online yesterday, scientists need to consider the buttressing of the ice shelves (affecting ice flow into the ocean itself), as this significantly impacts estimates of ice-melt contributions to sea level rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead of 3,048 mm (10 feet) of sea level rise contribution from the complete removal of Thwaites, the authors assessed it would be closer to a \u201cnegligibly small\u201d 1-2 mm over the next 50 to 100 years. In other words, the notorious \u201cDoomsday\u201d glacier is doomless, with \u201cno discernible effect\u201d associated with future mass losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors even go on to say that there is no modeling work showing Thwaites Glacier is \u201ccurrently undergoing an irreversible retreat,\u201d and there is \u201cno reason to expect a possible disintegration of the [Thwaites] ice shelf to meaningfully impact SLR [sea level rise] projections.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the more commonly-cited alarmist claims has just been bushwhacked.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
Image Source: Gudmundsson et al., 2023<\/a><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c[N]o numerical modeling work has shown that Thwaites Glacier is currently undergoing an irreversible retreat.\u201d \u2013 Gudmundsson et al., 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":260299,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819045],"class_list":["post-260293","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-thwaites-glacier","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-Antarctic.jpeg?fit=1920%2C1080&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-15Ih","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":448563,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=448563","url_meta":{"origin":260293,"position":0},"title":"Wrong, Daily Mail, The Thwaites Glacier Isn\u2019t About to \u2018COLLAPSE\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/04\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The Daily Mail (DM) claims in \u201cIs Antarctica\u2019s Doomsday Glacier about to COLLAPSE?\u201d that the Thwaites Glacier could lose its ice shelf \u201cthis year\u201d with \u201cdevastating consequences\u201d for global sea levels. This is false. The article\u2019s claims rely on worst-case modeling scenarios while ignoring measured data, physical scale, and the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctic Ice Mass\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctic Ice Mass","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctic-ice-mass"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0Screenshot-2026-06-04-194218.png?fit=1200%2C920&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0Screenshot-2026-06-04-194218.png?fit=1200%2C920&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0Screenshot-2026-06-04-194218.png?fit=1200%2C920&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0Screenshot-2026-06-04-194218.png?fit=1200%2C920&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0Screenshot-2026-06-04-194218.png?fit=1200%2C920&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":432757,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=432757","url_meta":{"origin":260293,"position":1},"title":"Wrong, Daily Mail, Antarctica\u2019s Thwaites Glacier Isn\u2019t on the Road to Collapse by 2067","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/20\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The Daily Mail (DM) claims in \u201cAntarctica \u2018Doomsday Glacier\u2019 COLLAPSE by 2067\u201d that the Thwaites Glacier is on track for catastrophic failure within decades. 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The climate news control desk calls the plays and the media fills the air and print with the scare du jour.","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctic Glacier\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctic Glacier","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctic-glacier"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":259699,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=259699","url_meta":{"origin":260293,"position":5},"title":"New Study Destroys \u2018Doomsday Glacier\u2019 Narrative\u2026Today\u2019s Ice 8 Times \ud835\udc47\u210e\ud835\udc56\ud835\udc50\ud835\udc58\ud835\udc52\ud835\udc5f Than Last 8000 Years","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/30\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Scientists have determined there is no measured data to \u201cindicate thicker than present ice after 4ka\u201d at a West Antarctic study site near the Thwaites \u201cDoomsday\u201d Glacier. 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