{"id":260092,"date":"2023-06-01T20:50:23","date_gmt":"2023-06-01T18:50:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=260092"},"modified":"2023-06-01T20:50:26","modified_gmt":"2023-06-01T18:50:26","slug":"green-schemes-broken-by-reality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=260092","title":{"rendered":"Green Schemes Broken by\u00a0Reality"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

James E. Hanley provides a roundup of failed Green expensive ventures in his Real Clear Policy article Green Projects Hit Iron Wall.<\/strong><\/a>  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Developers looking to build thousands of wind turbines<\/strong> off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast are coming up against a force<\/strong> even more relentless than the Atlantic winds: the Iron Law of Megaprojects,<\/strong> offering a warning of the trouble ahead for green-energy projects.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Iron Law, coined by Oxford Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, says that \u201cmegaprojects\u201d \u2014 which cost billions of dollars, take years to complete, and are socially transformative \u2014 reliably come in over budget, over time,<\/strong> over and over.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Boston\u2019s Big Dig to California\u2019s high-speed rail to
New York\u2019s 12 years-overdue and 300% over-budget East Side Access rail project,
big boondoggles routinely demonstrate the validity of the rule.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Offshore wind projects<\/strong> are not immune to the Iron Law, regularly experiencing vast cost overruns before a single watt is generated.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\u00a0New York state government,<\/strong>\u00a0looking to replace oil- and gas-fired powerplants with hundreds of wind towers off Long Island,\u00a0set out in 2019 to create an offshore wind supply chain<\/strong>\u00a0from scratch, beginning with a massive state-funded turbine fabrication facility about 100 miles north of New York City on the Hudson River.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Port of Albany factory\u2019s fate at stake as leaders race for a solution\u00a0<\/strong>The $700 million-plus project is expected to create work for generations, but hopes are dwindling that more funding will become available<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ground still hasn\u2019t even been broken, but the budget certainly has: The price of that Port of Albany facility has already\u00a0doubled<\/strong>\u00a0<\/a>from $350 million to $700 million. An additional $100 million may be needed for equipment costs, raising the final price tag to $800 million.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s been billed the future hub for wind power infrastructure. So far, though, the only thing that continues to get billed over and over in recent years is the Connecticut taxpayer.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A similar situation is playing out in\u00a0New London, Connecticut,<\/strong>\u00a0where a state-funded pier facility being built to support that state\u2019s offshore wind buildout has more than\u00a0doubled<\/strong>\u00a0<\/a>in price from an original estimate of $95 million to $250 million.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Commonwealth Wind Declares that the largest offshore wind farm in the state\u2019s pipeline \u201ccannot be financed and built\u201d under existing contracts,<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And in Massachusetts, developer Commonwealth Wind has asked<\/strong> <\/a>the state to scrap its power purchase guarantees and rebid the project, arguing that inflation and supply chain problems mean the project is not financially viable under its current contracts.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Big projects tend to exceed their cost projections for many reasons. One<\/strong> is the unanticipated, and sometimes unprecedented, complexity<\/strong> of these projects. Further<\/strong> uncertainties and costs arise from the challenge of navigating the red tape of the modern regulatory state<\/strong>. In addition<\/strong>, there is the risk of inflation<\/strong> for projects that take years, sometimes decades, to develop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Underlying all these is often a failure to spend enough time on careful planning
that treats reality as a fundamental constraint.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But sometimes project sponsors may simply worry that accurate cost projections could scare away public support at the outset<\/strong>, and choose to employ what Prof. Flyvbjerg politely calls \u201cstrategic misrepresentation.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown<\/strong> said, \u201cIf people knew the real cost from the start, nothing would ever be approved. . . . Start digging a hole and make it so big, there\u2019s no alternative to coming up with the money to fill it in.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If that sounds too cynical, note that the current Chair of the\u00a0Connecticut Port Authority has admitted<\/strong>\u00a0that when officials first proposed the pier facility,\u00a0they already knew it would cost more<\/strong>\u00a0than they were claiming.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ironically, the New York and Connecticut projects aren\u2019t even big enough to be considered megaprojects<\/strong>, and yet even they have run into the Iron Law of being over budget and behind schedule. The challenges won\u2019t diminish with bigger and more ambitious green energy projects.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In New York, the state\u2019s huge Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act<\/strong> \u2014 of which the Port of Albany project is the first substantial investment \u2014 is projected to cost between $270 and $290 billion. At that price it is a gigaproject<\/strong> composed of numerous individual megaprojects.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The benefits, mostly in the form of greenhouse gas reductions, are supposed to be up to $415 billion<\/strong>. But if the overall cost of the policy climbs by merely 55 percent, which is in the normal<\/strong> range for megaprojects (and much less than the Port of Albany cost overrun<\/strong>), the costs will exceed the benefits, creating a net loss for New Yorkers.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If costs balloon to twice the initial estimates<\/strong>, which is not uncommon, the state stands to spend more than more than a hundred billion dollars more than gained in benefits That would be a loss of over $30,000 per New York household by 2050.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that\u2019s assuming the benefits are as good as promised. It gets even worse if,
as is common, the benefits have been overstated.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The tale of megaprojects is a cautionary one<\/strong> for the whole country as we attempt to transition away from fossil fuels. Cost estimates for a nationwide transition span from $4.7 trillion to over $60 trillion<\/strong> \u2013 almost three times U.S. GDP. Such uncertainty should give us pause for thought before jumping wildly into the financial unknown.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we\u2019re not careful, we may be digging Willie Brown-style holes, and politically and financially we may find ourselves in too deep to ever get ourselves out.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Developers looking to build thousands of wind turbines\u00a0off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast are coming\u00a0up against a force\u00a0even more relentless than the Atlantic winds:\u00a0the Iron Law of Megaprojects,\u00a0offering a warning of the trouble ahead for green-energy projects.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":260105,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819509,691819565,691818322],"class_list":["post-260092","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-green-energy-projects","tag-offshore-wind-projects","tag-wind-turbines","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-Green-Reality.png?fit=1024%2C990&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-15F2","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":350402,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=350402","url_meta":{"origin":260092,"position":0},"title":"Big Green Projects Hoisted By Their Own Petards","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/07\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"For decades environmentalists raised questionable, but often successful, objections to block mines, pipelines, nuclear power, and oil and gas operations. Now, as Shakespeare\u2019s Hamlet might say, they are \u201choisted by their own petards,\u201d referring to a small explosive device used in siege warfare.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Shores North and South (NJ)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Shores North and South (NJ)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-shores-north-and-south-nj"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0Screen-Shot-2020-01-31-at-10.58.31-AM.png?fit=1200%2C658&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0Screen-Shot-2020-01-31-at-10.58.31-AM.png?fit=1200%2C658&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0Screen-Shot-2020-01-31-at-10.58.31-AM.png?fit=1200%2C658&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0Screen-Shot-2020-01-31-at-10.58.31-AM.png?fit=1200%2C658&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0Screen-Shot-2020-01-31-at-10.58.31-AM.png?fit=1200%2C658&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":349717,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=349717","url_meta":{"origin":260092,"position":1},"title":"Big Green projects hoisted by their own petards","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"For decades environmentalists raised questionable, but often successful, objections to block mines, pipelines, nuclear power, and oil and gas operations. Now, as Shakespeare\u2019s Hamlet might say, they are \u201choisted by their own petards,\u201d referring to a small explosive device used in siege warfare.","rel":"","context":"In \"battery energy storage facility\"","block_context":{"text":"battery energy storage facility","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=battery-energy-storage-facility"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":316978,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=316978","url_meta":{"origin":260092,"position":2},"title":"Save the Whales, Kill the Turbines \u2013 The Climate Realism Show #104","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"On episode 104 of The Climate Realism Show, we explain that to save the whales we need to kill these growing large-scale offshore wind projects. These so-called \u201cwind farms\u201d are much larger and do much more environmental damage than most people realize. Covering an area the size of Connecticut and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Screenshot-2024-04-06-142626.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Screenshot-2024-04-06-142626.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Screenshot-2024-04-06-142626.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Screenshot-2024-04-06-142626.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Screenshot-2024-04-06-142626.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":365052,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=365052","url_meta":{"origin":260092,"position":3},"title":"An ill wind blows toward offshore turbines","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Signaling a sharp departure from Biden administration green-energy policies, President Donald Trump Jan. 20 signed an\u00a0executive order\u00a0temporarily halting offshore wind lease sales in federal waters and pausing the issuance of approvals, permits, and loans for both offshore and onshore wind projects.","rel":"","context":"In \"Biden Administration\"","block_context":{"text":"Biden Administration","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=biden-administration"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/071317481007-offshore-wind-mock-up.webp?fit=1200%2C665&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/071317481007-offshore-wind-mock-up.webp?fit=1200%2C665&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/071317481007-offshore-wind-mock-up.webp?fit=1200%2C665&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/071317481007-offshore-wind-mock-up.webp?fit=1200%2C665&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/071317481007-offshore-wind-mock-up.webp?fit=1200%2C665&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":373148,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=373148","url_meta":{"origin":260092,"position":4},"title":"Atlantic Shores Wind Project Sinks\u2014And With It, A Green Illusion","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"There are few things more satisfying than watching a multi-billion-dollar boondoggle collapse under the weight of its own bureaucratic absurdity and scientific sloppiness. That\u2019s precisely what happened when a critical air permit for the Atlantic Shores South offshore wind farm was voided\u2014just weeks after President Donald Trump publicly hoped the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"American Clean Power Association\"","block_context":{"text":"American Clean Power Association","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=american-clean-power-association"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/zScreenshot-2023-11-03-111148-1024x611-1.webp?fit=1024%2C611&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/zScreenshot-2023-11-03-111148-1024x611-1.webp?fit=1024%2C611&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/zScreenshot-2023-11-03-111148-1024x611-1.webp?fit=1024%2C611&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/zScreenshot-2023-11-03-111148-1024x611-1.webp?fit=1024%2C611&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":368254,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=368254","url_meta":{"origin":260092,"position":5},"title":"Save the whales campaigns, Team Trump boost anti-wind legal action","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Whales migrating up and down the East Coast are getting at least a temporary reprieve from offshore wind. So are property owners, homeowners, business owners, tourists, and anyone with a stake in beach communities. The people of New Jersey, Virginia, and other states hope the Trump administration can end these\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Biden Administration\"","block_context":{"text":"Biden Administration","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=biden-administration"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0-dead-whales-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0-dead-whales-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0-dead-whales-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0-dead-whales-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0-dead-whales-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/260092","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=260092"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/260092\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":260106,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/260092\/revisions\/260106"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/260105"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=260092"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=260092"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=260092"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}