{"id":259473,"date":"2023-05-28T19:03:32","date_gmt":"2023-05-28T17:03:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=259473"},"modified":"2023-05-28T19:03:34","modified_gmt":"2023-05-28T17:03:34","slug":"noaa-predicts-a-near-normal-2023-atlantic-hurricane-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=259473","title":{"rendered":"NOAA predicts a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

News Brief by Kip Hansen \u2014 27 May 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNOAA forecasters with the\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/a>, a division of the National Weather Service,\u00a0predict near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year<\/a>. NOAA\u2019s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

This list of the 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone names was selected by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)<\/a>.  The first hurricane of the season will be named Arlene, followed by Brett then Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert and so on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years<\/em><\/strong>, due to competing factors \u2014 some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it \u2014 driving this year\u2019s overall forecast for a near-normal season. \u201c (emphasis mine \u2013 kh)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAfter three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.\u201d [ source<\/a> ]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For comparison, the 2022 hurricane season\u00a0looked like this<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2022 had 14 named storms,  8 hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes and 5 tropical storms.  Note that NOAA and the Wiki each have slightly different numbers of tropical storms for the season (5 vs 6).  Nonetheless, Hurricane Ian<\/a>, Cat 5,  caused up to 161 human deaths and more than a billion dollars of damage, landfalling in the continental U.S. twice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As always, those in areas potentially in the path of tropical storms and hurricanes should remain aware of hurricane warnings, be prepared to protect their property from damage, and have plans to evacuate if necessary.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author\u2019s Comment:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Having lived in the northern Caribbean on our ancient sailing catamaran for a dozen years, I am well versed in the activities of watching the weather, checking hurricane development daily, and planning, planning and re-planning as conditions changed.  Evidence of the success of our plans is that I am here writing this today.  We had several close calls and rode out one direct hit in North Carolina near Beaufort. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

During hurricane season, I still check the reports and predictions daily; I have family in the USVI<\/a>, in harm\u2019s way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hurricanes are only neat and exciting when they are happening someplace else to someone else.  Up close, they are dangerous even for those well prepared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Be Prepared.  Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hurricanes are only neat and exciting when they are happening someplace else to someone else.\u00a0 Up close, they are dangerous even for those well prepared.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":259483,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818104,691818397,691819785],"class_list":["post-259473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-hurricanes","tag-noaa","tag-tropical-storms","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1919%2C1192&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-15v3","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":446161,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446161","url_meta":{"origin":259473,"position":0},"title":"GOOD NEWS: NOAA predicts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/23\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 21, 2026, and it does call for a below-normal season.","rel":"","context":"In \"2026 Atlantic hurricane season\"","block_context":{"text":"2026 Atlantic hurricane season","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2026-atlantic-hurricane-season"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":444596,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=444596","url_meta":{"origin":259473,"position":1},"title":"Scorecard: How Well Does NOAA\u2019s Hurricane Outlook Actually Perform? 26 Years of Forecasts vs. Reality","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/16\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA\u2019s May Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks perform modestly well at hitting their probabilistic ranges (roughly 65-70% hit rate for named storms\/hurricanes over ~25 years), but they show limitations like under-forecasting in hyperactive seasons, occasional big misses, and skill that is better for broad \"above\/near\/below normal\" direction than precise counts.","rel":"","context":"In \"forecast\"","block_context":{"text":"forecast","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=forecast"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":412307,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=412307","url_meta":{"origin":259473,"position":2},"title":"Hurricane Forecast Was Overly Alarmist (Again)\u2026Atlantic Season Ending Near Normal","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted\u00a0that an above average Atlantic hurricane season\u00a0for 2025.","rel":"","context":"In \"catastrophe prophets\"","block_context":{"text":"catastrophe prophets","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=catastrophe-prophets"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":418799,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=418799","url_meta":{"origin":259473,"position":3},"title":"True, Rigzone, 2025 Was Quiet in the USA For Hurricanes","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/27\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent post at the website Rigzone, \u201cNo Hurricanes Strike USA For 1st Time in a Decade,\u201d discusses how the United States lucked out by not being struck by any hurricanes this year, and never once credits climate change. The whole post is factual and straightforward. Climate change is not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0no-landfalls.png?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0no-landfalls.png?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0no-landfalls.png?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0no-landfalls.png?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0no-landfalls.png?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":417032,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417032","url_meta":{"origin":259473,"position":4},"title":"Northern Hemisphere tropical activity in 2025","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Second year in a row with below-normal tropical activity across the Northern Hemisphere\u2026 western Pacific Ocean leads the way with its seventh straight down year\u2026no hurricanes hit the US for the first time in a decade","rel":"","context":"In \"Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)\"","block_context":{"text":"Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=accumulated-cyclone-energy-ace"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Screenshot-2025-12-11-193344.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Screenshot-2025-12-11-193344.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Screenshot-2025-12-11-193344.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Screenshot-2025-12-11-193344.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Screenshot-2025-12-11-193344.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":330687,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330687","url_meta":{"origin":259473,"position":5},"title":"Media Hypes NOAA\u2019s Above-Normal 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/31\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The mainstream media is hyping the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s (NOAA) annual hurricane Season forecast released on May 23rd, that projects significantly above normal hurricane season is to be expected in the Atlantic. For example, these headlines: NBC News, NOAA issues highest-ever early forecast for the coming hurricane season;\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"2024 Atlantic hurricane season\"","block_context":{"text":"2024 Atlantic hurricane season","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2024-atlantic-hurricane-season"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane-13.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane-13.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane-13.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane-13.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane-13.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/259473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=259473"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/259473\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":259484,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/259473\/revisions\/259484"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/259483"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=259473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=259473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=259473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}