{"id":258898,"date":"2023-05-24T17:51:32","date_gmt":"2023-05-24T15:51:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=258898"},"modified":"2023-05-24T17:51:35","modified_gmt":"2023-05-24T15:51:35","slug":"jude-clemente-five-things-i-truly-dont-understand-about-the-energy-transition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=258898","title":{"rendered":"Jude Clemente: \u201cFive Things I Truly Don\u2019t Understand About\u2026 the Energy Transition\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest \u201cFracking-A Bubba\u201d by David Middleton<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jude Clemente is one of my favorite energy analysts. His articles for Forbes<\/em> are always awesome. Jude hits it out of the park with this one:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

FORBES<\/a> BUSINESS<\/a> ENERGY<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

5 Things I Truly Don\u2019t Understand About The \u201cInevitable Energy Transition\u201d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jude Clemente<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Contributor<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This list could be closer to 50 but let\u2019s just stick to a handful of them. I live in this business every day, and I\u2019m just so confused.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. In a world that is apparently getting both warmer<\/a> and colder<\/a> because of global warming, how is it that we can increasingly rely on non-dispatchable (i.e., intermittent, usually unavailable), weather-dependent electricity from wind and solar plants to displace, not just supplement, dispatchable (i.e., baseload, almost always available) coal, gas, and nuclear power? In other words, if our weather is becoming less predictable, how is it that a consuming economy<\/a> like ours can, or should even try, predictably rely on weather-dependent resources? ERCOT exemplifies this: the Texas grid operator has around 31,000 MW of wind capacity but goes into winter expecting only 6,000 MW (just 20%) of wind farms to be available to generate electricity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

[\u2026]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Climate change is a global issue, so how is it that we can claim climate benefits for unilateral climate policy. For example, U.S. gasoline cars constitute just 3% of global CO2 emissions, so how will getting rid of them impact climate change? But this dose of real science doesn\u2019t stop California leaders, a state responsible for just 1% of global CO2 emissions, from telling<\/a> us that energy policy in the nine-county region of Northern California alone is \u201cresponsible for protecting air quality and the global climate in the nine-county Bay Area.<\/em>\u201d No wonder then that a Biden administration official was incoherent<\/a> when asked how $50 trillion in climate spending in the U.S. will lower any global temperature rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[\u2026]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Back to electric vehicles. Green-tinted but surely practical Bloomberg<\/em> admits<\/a> that more than 85% of Americans can\u2019t afford an electric car, since they are well more than double the price of oil-based cars. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

[\u2026]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. How on Earth could anybody expect those in Africa and the other horrifically poor nations to \u201cget off fossil fuels\u201d when the rich countries haven\u2019t come close to doing it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

[\u2026]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. But, perhaps I\u2019m most confused about the whole air quality thing. The obsession over it gets attached to all energy policies. But there\u2019s clearly a strawman to the \u201cwe need cleaner air now\u201d demand. First, the air quality conversation in the U.S. reminds me of Voltaire\u2019s \u201cthe perfect is the enemy of good.\u201d Americans seem completely unaware how drastically our air quality has improved. Check data<\/a> from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), our criteria pollutants have been plummeting over the past many decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[\u2026]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jude Clemente<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I am Principal at JTC Energy Research Associates, LLC. I hold a B.A. in International Relations from Penn State University, with a minor in Statistical Analysis. I got my M.S. in Homeland Security from San Diego State University, with a focus on Energy Security, and an MBA from St. Francis University, with a focus on Energy Economics. My research specialization includes North American and international trends in liquid fuels, natural gas, coal, renewables, electricity and GHG emissions \u2013 and their connection to human development. I have over 400 professional publications in a variety of energy-related media, notably Pipeline & Gas Journal, Carbon Capture Journal, Journal of Energy Security, Power, World Oil, Public Utilities Fortnightly, and the Journal of Energy and Development. I have also been a writer and editor for reports commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy, International Energy Agency, and other major energy research organizations<\/em>.Forbes<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Point #1<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

While wind power in Texas works fairly to very well in spring and fall, it doesn\u2019t work that well in winter and summer. Nearly all of ERCOT\u2019s capacity additions since the February 2021 deep freeze have been renewables,\u00a0about half of which were solar PV<\/a>\u00a0installations. On sunny days, solar does a fairly good job of offsetting wind\u2019s mid-day doldrums\u2026 However, the Duck Curve isn\u2019t limited to the Peoples Republic of California.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

LinkedIn<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first week of February 2023 was extremely cold, with much of Texas getting hammered by an ice storm. Wind and particularly solar took the week off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

EIA<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The mindless\u00a0renewables<\/s>\u00a0unreliables cheerleading went\u00a0FR<\/a>\u00a0in this\u00a0Texas Monthly<\/em>\u00a0article:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Solar Power Is Bailing Texas Out This Summer<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Enjoying that AC? Thank the mighty power of the sun and the renewable energy source keeping the grid afloat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Dan Solomon
July 12, 2022<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Monday the good people of Texas, many still suffering from lingering trauma as a result of the February 2021 failure of the state\u2019s power grid<\/a>, braced for bad news. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the much-maligned entity that manages Texas\u2019s famously independent grid, warned that the situation was dire because of \u201ca projected reserve capacity shortage with no market solution available.\u201d If things got worse, rolling blackouts might be needed. Not great! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fortunately, the worst didn\u2019t happen. There are a few reasons why. To reduce demand, many Texans turned up the thermostat by a few degrees to help save power, and ERCOT\u2019s emergency response program paid some large energy customers to scale back usage during peak times. And significantly, solar power, which has been the star of the Texas grid so far during this interminable summer, continued to set records for energy production. If your air conditioner has been steadily running all summer long, you can thank the mighty power of the sun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[\u2026]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The two key renewable energy sources contributing to the Texas power grid are solar and wind power; solar accounts for roughly 25 percent of the renewable resources on the grid, while wind represents the other three quarters, according to Andrew Dessler<\/em><\/strong>, director of the Texas Center for Climate Studies at Texas A&M. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not all that difficult to understand how and why certain energy sources perform well under various grid conditions. Is the grid struggling to keep up with demand for air conditioning? Odds are it is bright and sunny outside, which explains why solar is performing well and also why wind would be less productive (go outside at noon on a summer day and wish for a breeze!). \u201cThe good thing about solar is it really does match AC demand,\u201d Dessler<\/em><\/strong> said. \u201cDays that are really hot and sunny are the days you\u2019re making the most power from solar energy.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While wind produced a low amount of energy relative to its total potential on Monday (and ERCOT put out a release<\/a> blaming the energy source for the grid\u2019s struggles), both Dessler<\/em><\/strong> and Lewin said that was to be expected, and that the amount of electricity being generated by wind was within state projections for a summer day. (Thermal energy sources\u2014gas, coal, and nuclear\u2014also underperformed<\/a> on Monday.)<\/em><\/strong> While the wind farms of West Texas don\u2019t generate as much power as we might like on stultifying summer days, wind farms along the Gulf Coast tend to do well during those hours. \u201cIf you\u2019ve been down to the beach in the summertime, there\u2019s usually a pretty good afternoon breeze,\u201d Lewin said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

[\u2026]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dan Solomon<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Dan Solomon writes about politics, music, food, sports, criminal justice, health care, film, and business.<\/em>Texas Monthly<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Unmitigated horst schist! Here\u2019s the EIA Hourly Grid Monitor for ERCOT daily generation output by source for July 2022:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

EIA<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s the hourly plot from Sunday July 10 through Thursday July 13, 2022:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

EIA<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only evidence cited for thermal energy sources underperforming was a moronic Tweet<\/a> by\u2026 drum roll, pleas<\/em>e\u2026 Andrew Dessler<\/em><\/strong>. Had the article been titled, \u201cSolar Power Is Bailing Texas Wind Power Out This Summer on Some Afternoons,\u201d it would have been sort of accurate. The author<\/a> of the Texas Monthly<\/em> article evidently derived his energy expertise by writing \u201cabout politics, music, food, sports, criminal justice, health care, film, and business.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wind and solar can\u2019t respond to demand. They can only respond to supply because they are weather-dependent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The flip side of the coin is that wind and solar often over-generate when they aren\u2019t needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Wind and Solar Curtailments in ERCOT (BTU Analytics<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Relying on weather-dependent energy sources for an energy transition, ostensibly needed to fix the weather\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Point #2<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Clemente was referring to Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) in this passage:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

No wonder then that a Biden administration official was incoherent<\/a> when asked how $50 trillion in climate spending in the U.S. will lower any global temperature rise.Forbes<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\n