{"id":258735,"date":"2023-05-23T14:14:59","date_gmt":"2023-05-23T12:14:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=258735"},"modified":"2023-05-23T14:15:01","modified_gmt":"2023-05-23T12:15:01","slug":"1-5c-temperature-disaster-story-makes-its-annual-media-appearance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=258735","title":{"rendered":"\u20181.5\u00b0C Temperature Disaster\u2019 Story Makes its Annual Media Appearance"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0CHRIS MORRISON<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
A participant holds a drawing depicting Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg during a protest march to call for action against climate change, in The Hague, Netherlands September 27, 2019. REUTERS\/Piroschka van de Wouw<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There was something vaguely familiar about the BBC\u2019s Matt McGrath reporting<\/a> that our \u201coverheating\u201d world was set to break the 1.5\u00b0C threshold within the next five years, meaning average global temperatures would be 1.5\u00b0C warmer than they were in the second half of the 19th Century. At the same time last year, McGrath told us there was a 50-50 chance<\/a> the world would hit 1.5\u00b0C \u201cover the next five years\u201d. And the year before that, BBC Science Editor David Shukman reported it was likely that the key 1.5\u00b0C \u201cglobal temperature limit<\/a>\u201d would be broken \u2013 yes you guessed it \u2013 \u201cin one of the next five years\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it might not surprise you to learn that this particular alarmist song has been around for even longer than its recent reappearance in the charts. In early 2019, the Guardian<\/em> reported<\/a> that \u201cwithin five years\u201d, global temperatures could temporarily climb to 1.5\u00b0C above 19th Century levels. The Guardian<\/em> noted the view of the Met Office<\/a> that previous results had \u201cdemonstrated the accuracy of such decadal reports\u201d, which were said to cover the ground between short-term weather forecasts and long-range climate models. For its part, the Met Office stated as far back as 2017 there was a 39% chance of one month at 1.5\u00b0C within \u2013 you guessed it \u2013 five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Missing from all these stories is the admission that the 1.5\u00b0C threshold has no basis in science and is just a political invention<\/a> designed to hasten the implementation of Net Zero. Suggestions that the planet will encounter \u2018tipping points\u2019 are pseudoscientific fear-mongering produced by climate models fed with improbable climate data. As we have noted, the recently published Clintel report<\/a> \u2013The Frozen Climate Views of the IPCC<\/em> \u2013 showed that about half the work produced by the IPCC and the wider scientific community is corrupted by incorporating predictions of up to 5\u00b0C warming within 80 years. It is a fair comment to say that almost nobody now believes these predictions are remotely plausible<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other major problem in promoting Thermogeddon is that global warming ran out of steam 25 years ago. The high point of the small jump in temperatures from 1980 occurred in 1998, and current readings are similar to this day. Two inconvenient long pauses during the current century were separated by a small uptick in warmth caused by a very powerful El Nino natural oscillation around 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There may well be some warming caused by humans burning fossil fuel during this period but it seems you need a vivid imagination and a well-prompted climate model to spot it. It can be argued that surface temperatures measurers have done their best<\/a> to get them through the heat drought with large retrospective additions of warming, poor siting of measuring devices \u2013 airport runways an obvious cause of concern \u2013 and big boosts from growing urban heat distortions. But there is a feeling that the gig is up on global warming unless some proper heat makes a long overdue appearance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, the current linear temperature pause \u2013 which is about nine years old \u2013 could be broken since an El Nino is likely to become apparent in the Pacific ocean in the next few months. The alarmists and their trusted messengers are in two minds about how to play this. McGrath reports that the chances of temperature movement are rising \u201cdue to emissions from human activities and a change in weather patterns expected this summer\u201d. Of course, El Nino, which transfers huge amounts of heat around the planet, is a natural recurring event. Getting rid of the pesky pause, as in 2016, will be welcome, but drawing too much attention to El Nino will suggest temperature movement is largely a product of natural influences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This of course opens the Pandora\u2019s Box that has been firmly sealed by the \u2018settled\u2019 science community as far as the important role played by natural influences is concerned. On page 59 of its latest Sixth Assessment Report, the IPCC\u2019s \u201cbest estimate<\/a>\u201d for warming since 1850-1900 is 1.06\u00b0C. It attributes between \u20130.1\u00b0C to +0.1\u00b0C to natural causes \u2013 give or take zero, in other words. The suggestion that all the warming over the last 120 years is down to the activities of humans is relentlessly promoted as a settled gospel truth. It is an interesting position to hold that all the changes in the climate before the 20th century were caused by natural influences, and yet they somehow ceased playing a part from that date onwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are many scientists who dispute that it is only humans controlling the climate thermostat. Heat exchanges from the tropics to the poles, ocean currents of countless durations and size, changing amounts of heat from the sun, all operate in a chaotic non-linear manner to make climate modelling a largely fruitless, if politically necessary, activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent findings from six top international scientists revealed that the Northern hemisphere may be entering a temperature cooling phase until the 2050s, with a decline of up to 0.3\u00b0C<\/a>. Led by Nour-Eddine Omrani of the Norwegian Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, the scientists say that the North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), an important current that has been pumping warmer water into the Arctic, is weakening, and that\u2019s leading to a cooler North Atlantic area and lower temperatures, as was observed in the period 1950-1970.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Observational evidence seems to lend some credence to the Omrani findings that puts the AMO at the centre of changes in the Arctic\u2019s short-term weather and longer term climate. Over the last few years<\/a>, the extent of summer sea ice has made a small recovery, while the vast Greenland ice sheet last year could, within a reasonable margin of measurement error, have increased in size.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris Morrison is the <\/em>Daily Sceptic\u2019s Environment Editor.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stop Press:<\/strong> Net Zero could push British energy bills up by \u00a3120 a year to fund the development of hydrogen gas, reports the Telegraph<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There was something vaguely familiar about the BBC\u2019s Matt McGrath\u00a0reporting\u00a0that our \u201coverheating\u201d world was set to break the 1.5\u00b0C threshold within the next five years, meaning average global temperatures would be 1.5\u00b0C warmer than they were in the second half of the 19th Century.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":258740,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818090,691818200,691818154],"class_list":{"0":"post-258735","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-climate-warning","10":"tag-el-nino","11":"tag-net-zero","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Global_Warming-1-e1522083188777.jpg?fit=4461%2C1918&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-15j9","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":292040,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292040","url_meta":{"origin":258735,"position":0},"title":"Reason is Right, There is No \u2018Climate Cliff\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The threshold value was first developed by a panel of advisors who had no data to show that 1.5\u00b0 warming would be catastrophic, and the language used by the media has only become more extreme since then.","rel":"","context":"In \"1.5\u00b0C warming\"","block_context":{"text":"1.5\u00b0C warming","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1-5c-warming"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0106607.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0106607.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0106607.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0106607.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0106607.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":421288,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=421288","url_meta":{"origin":258735,"position":1},"title":"No, CBS News, Recent Temperatures Didn\u2019t Surpass a \u2018Critical Climate Mark\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"CBS News recently published a story \u201c2025 was so hot it pushed Earth past critical climate change mark, scientists say,\u201d from the Associated Press (CBS\/AP), claiming that a recent temperature \u201cblip\u201d has pushed the planet past the Paris Agreement\u2019s 1.5\u00b0C threshold, implying that catastrophic consequences are now unfolding or inevitable.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Associated Press (CBS\/AP)\"","block_context":{"text":"Associated Press (CBS\/AP)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=associated-press-cbs-ap"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-226.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":298351,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=298351","url_meta":{"origin":258735,"position":2},"title":"Note to CNN \u2013 the Futile Battle Against 1.5\u00b0C of Warming Was Lost Even Before it Started","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A January 18th story by CNN reporter Laura Paddison titled \u201cThe 1.5-degree climate goal may be \u2018deader than a doornail,\u2019 and scientists are bitterly divided over it,\u201d claims that we are approaching the point of overshooting this limit. 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