{"id":258441,"date":"2023-05-21T13:33:05","date_gmt":"2023-05-21T11:33:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=258441"},"modified":"2023-05-21T13:33:08","modified_gmt":"2023-05-21T11:33:08","slug":"doomed-to-inevitable-failure-grand-wind-solar-transition-built-on-subsidies-bullshit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=258441","title":{"rendered":"Doomed to Inevitable Failure: Grand Wind & Solar \u2018Transition\u2019 Built On Subsidies &\u00a0Bullshit"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From STOP THESE THINGS<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As wind and solar capacity increases, it becomes increasingly evident they are hopelessly incapable of delivering power as and when we need it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back in January 2021, Germany shut down 11 coal-fired power plants<\/a> (with a total capacity of 4.7 GW). That shutdown lasted eight days, with most of the plants up and running by February that year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Australia is hellbent on committing the same form of suicide; ideologues cheered as another large, perfectly operable 2,000 MW coal-fired power plant (Liddell in NSW) was shut down earlier this month<\/a>. Power consumers were less enthusiastic, as wholesale power prices jumped 80%,<\/a> almost overnight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Australia\u2019s big pumped hydro scheme, Snowy 2.0 has turned into a ludicrously costly fiasco<\/a>, which is unlikely to be completed anytime between now and kingdom come. Snowy 2.0 was meant to act like a big battery and make up for routine total collapses in wind and solar output. So much for that grand plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notwithstanding the wind and solar debacle playing out in Europe (and elsewhere), Australia\u2019s Federal Energy Minister, Chris Bowen is pressing on with his delusional plan for an 80% wind and solar target by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the deliberate shutdown of Liddell and with construction on Snowy 2.0 grinding to a halt, Paul Broad, former Snow Hydro CEO called Bowen\u2019s 80% wind and solar target \u201cbullshit\u201d, said that reaching it would take \u201c80 years not eight\u201d and pointed out that blackouts are guaranteed, in the meantime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Australian\u2019s Nick Cater picks up on Paul Broad\u2019s broadside below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Renewable fairytale is running out of power and cash<\/strong>
The Australian
Nick Cater
8 May 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the time of publication there has been no response from Energy Minister Chris Bowen to Paul Broad\u2019s claim that his green energy plan \u201cis, to use the vernacular, bullshit\u201d. Nor has Bowen reacted to the former Snowy Hydro chief executive\u2019s advice<\/a> that he should stick to telling the truth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Text messages began to be exchanged by industry players within minutes of Broad\u2019s frank exchange with Ben Fordham on 2UE last Thursday. Broad had said what many were thinking, but no one had been prepared to say: Bowen\u2019s target of 82 per cent renewable electricity by 2030 is patently absurd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The announcement by Snowy Hydro last week that Snowy 2.0 won\u2019t be online until the end of 2029<\/a> added weight to Broad\u2019s claim that the engineering challenges alone rule out any possibility of meeting the target in just eight years. As if boring 27km of tunnels, with perfect precision through geo-technologically uncharted subterranean territory, wasn\u2019t hard enough. Now the task is compounded by the need to construct hundreds of kilometres of high-voltage power lines across fields, valleys, woodlands and hilltops in the face of growing community resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Assuming this water-pumping mega-project is completed, the couple of gigawatts it will deliver is tiny in the scale of things. Clean Energy Council chief executive Kane Thornton told AAP last week: \u201cWe\u2019re deploying about five or six gigawatts of renewable energy a year and that needs to be close to 10 or 12.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That won\u2019t be happening. Even if Bowen was able to overcome the obstacles listed above, there is still the little matter of investment capital, something to which this government has paid precious little attention. Bowen assumes the well of investment capital is bottomless and the cost of drawing it is zero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Renewable energy investors, unlike the more greedy type of capitalist, don\u2019t care about return on investment apparently. How else could Bowen arrive at the conclusion that wind and solar are the cheapest sources of energy?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The realisation that Australia is in competition for global capital with energy-producing countries around the world is about to land with a thud on the Energy Minister\u2019s desk \u2013 if it hasn\u2019t already.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Joe Biden\u2019s Green New Deal \u2013 amateurishly disguised as the Inflation Reduction Act \u2013 is about to become a super magnet for renewable energy investment. It promises subsidies for the next 10 years to renewable energy companies equivalent to more than $50bn a year at the current exchange rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Bowen wants to achieve his target, he\u2019ll need a dirty big capital magnet of his own. There will doubtless be a few titbits in the budget, but Anthony Albanese\u2019s recent reluctant conversion to a weak form of fiscal conservatism makes the prospect of subsidies on the US scale unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Which leaves us to ponder why others in the energy sector have held themselves back from declaring, as Broad has done, that the emperor has no clothes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Surely, they can see as clearly as Broad can that Bowen has fallen victim to swindlers who set up looms and pretended to weave, while slipping the fine silk they demanded into their travelling bags. Perhaps, like the emperor\u2019s courtiers, they were trapped in what social psychologists call pluralistic ignorance. They were prepared to put their intellectual doubts aside in the mistaken belief everyone else thinks differently. They refrained from speaking their minds for fear of professional or social ostracism, or the embarrassment of being called stupid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conspiracy of silence might have been reinforced by the naked self-interest of those who have found ways to make money from a market corrupted by ad hoc government intervention, using business models in which profits from the sale of electricity are mere icing on the cake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Broad\u2019s advice to Bowen in his radio interview was that he should front up to the failings in his renewable energy policy before the voting public catch on. \u201cYou\u2019ve got to put it all on the line and you\u2019ve got to be honest to everybody about it. I mean, fair dinkum, why not just tell the truth?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Everything we have gleaned in the past year about Bowen\u2019s character and his modus operandi suggests he will dismiss this advice. He is far more likely to act like the shivering emperor being jeered by his own people in Hans Christian Andersen\u2019s fairytale, strutting more proudly than ever as he declares: \u201cThis procession has got to go on.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rudiments of the plan B the country badly needs are not hard to fathom. The life of coal plants must be extended in the short term and gas supplies expanded. In the short-to-medium term, federal and state moratoriums on nuclear energy must be removed, and the promise of small modular reactors embraced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The electricity market must be reformed to move away from spot pricing and back to contracts. The engineers should be put back in charge of maintaining a stable grid rather than the accountants. Without such change it will be next to impossible to correct the distortions that prevent scarce capital flowing where it is most needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The government\u2019s ignorance of the dynamics of capital flows will be on display in Tuesday\u2019s budget when it delivers a fifth blow to the gas industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Increasing the petroleum resource rent tax on natural gas places another tourniquet stopping the flow of inward investment. Coming on top of price caps, the safeguard mechanism, delays to approvals and the failure to support carbon capture and storage, the PRRT will take us further towards the government\u2019s apparent goal of making Australia the most unattractive place to invest in the known universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It means Australia is on track to lose its position among the world\u2019s top three LNG exporters by the middle of the decade. The Qatar government is spending around $US50bn to expand production of two giant gas fields that boost the country\u2019s capacity from 77 million tonnes to 126 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the US there is bipartisan support for gas, which is encouraging substantial investment in export capacity. Australia\u2019s market share will shrink just as the current inflated prices start to decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the pre-globalised world, the art of taxation was pretty much as Louis XIV\u2019s finance minster, Jean-Baptiste Colbert, described it: plucking the goose in a way that delivered \u201cthe largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Successful countries in the future will be those led by governments that realise the old rules no longer apply. That is to say, governments somewhat more worldly and street smart than ours.
The Australian<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the pre-globalised world, the art of taxation was pretty much as Louis XIV\u2019s finance minster, Jean-Baptiste Colbert, described it: plucking the goose in a way that delivered \u201cthe largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":258447,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819121],"class_list":{"0":"post-258441","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-wind-and-solar-power","10":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00rr4bm6jbyo8z008jvajx6oexn-1.jpg?fit=1386%2C780&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-15ep","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":253451,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=253451","url_meta":{"origin":258441,"position":0},"title":"Forget About Intermittent Wind & Solar If You Want Power As And When You Need It","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"18\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"As immutable laws, solar output collapses when the sun sets and wind power output collapses when calm weather sets in (and when\u00a0wind speeds hit gale force and turbines automatically shut down). No amount of spin doctoring, varnishing or linguistic invention can undo them.","rel":"","context":"In \"Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=australian-energy-market-operator-aemo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0V112_Macarthur_AUS_3-3594x1797-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0V112_Macarthur_AUS_3-3594x1797-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0V112_Macarthur_AUS_3-3594x1797-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0V112_Macarthur_AUS_3-3594x1797-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0V112_Macarthur_AUS_3-3594x1797-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":257303,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=257303","url_meta":{"origin":258441,"position":1},"title":"The wind and solar power myth has finally been\u00a0exposed","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Many governments in the Western world have committed to \u201cnet zero\u201d emissions of carbon in the near future. 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The wind and solar cancer that saw South Australia suffer the\u00a0country\u2019s only statewide blackout\u00a0and end up suffering\u00a0the world\u2019s highest power prices, bar none, quickly spread and has now taken hold across the entire\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0Screenshot-2022-06-25-111416.png?fit=576%2C860&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0Screenshot-2022-06-25-111416.png?fit=576%2C860&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0Screenshot-2022-06-25-111416.png?fit=576%2C860&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":257168,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=257168","url_meta":{"origin":258441,"position":5},"title":"Exposing The Wind And Solar Power Myth: The Necessary Miracle Doesn’t Exist","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"These plans have a single, fatal flaw:\u00a0they are reliant on the pipe dream\u00a0that there is some\u00a0affordable way to store surplus electricity at scale.","rel":"","context":"In \"Net zero\"","block_context":{"text":"Net zero","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=net-zero"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/1be22eb7-a958-43a1-bb35-f47905d61e62_1280x720.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/1be22eb7-a958-43a1-bb35-f47905d61e62_1280x720.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/1be22eb7-a958-43a1-bb35-f47905d61e62_1280x720.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/1be22eb7-a958-43a1-bb35-f47905d61e62_1280x720.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/1be22eb7-a958-43a1-bb35-f47905d61e62_1280x720.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/258441","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=258441"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/258441\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":258449,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/258441\/revisions\/258449"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/258447"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=258441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=258441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=258441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}