{"id":258180,"date":"2023-05-19T20:34:43","date_gmt":"2023-05-19T18:34:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=258180"},"modified":"2023-05-19T20:34:46","modified_gmt":"2023-05-19T18:34:46","slug":"column-net-zero-2050-thats-nothing-hold-my-beer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=258180","title":{"rendered":"Column: Net Zero 2050? That\u2019s Nothing \u2013 Hold My Beer"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From BOE REPORT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Serious goal-setting seems like a very good way to torment oneself, creating a new reason out of thin air. My New Year\u2019s resolution is to avoid setting goals. Type A is not my type.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But maybe it\u2019s time to turn over a new leaf. I\u2019ve decided I don\u2019t want to be a bedridden old coot. So it\u2019s showtime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By the year 2050, I\u2019m going to be the first 80-something to run a sub-four-minute mile. I\u2019m going to bench press 1,200 pounds and win the Tour de France five times in a row, all as an octogenarian. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aw come on. You\u2019re laughing at me. Why do you have to be like that? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m not crazy, I\u2019m just trying to get with the times. Aspiration is everything, reality is nothing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you live in Alberta, you may have noticed we are in the midst of a provincial election campaign. Regarding the potential outcomes, all I can say is this: I\u2019m grateful to live near some natural gas wells. I\u2019m grateful to step outside the city and be farmers and farmland and have clean water.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taken together, by 2050, it seems quite probable that only those living amongst such a collection will be the last people standing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our two main combatants in the provincial election are, to the extent I am paying attention (not really), duking it out over who has the best emissions reduction plan, and who\u2019s the most apt to lead to net zero 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You want to run towards that light? Here\u2019s a sneak preview of what you\u2019ll get. The U.S., more advanced than Canada in terms of wind\/solar penetration \u2013 some states now producing significant proportions of power from wind or solar \u2013 recently received a very cold bucket of water over the head with respect to renewables plans from none other than FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) commissioners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note that these commissioners include chairman Willie Phillips, a Biden appointee. Here are quotes<\/a> from commissioners (including Mr. Phillips) testifying at a Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing: \u201cThe United States is heading for a catastrophic situation in terms of reliability\u2026We face unprecedented challenges to the reliability of our nation\u2019s electric system\u2026[there is a] looming reliability crisis in our electricity markets.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is the specific cause of their alarm bells? The fact that hydrocarbon power plants \u2013 gas and coal \u2013 are being shuttered faster than reliable replacements are available. That\u2019s what happens when arbitrary goals are carved in stone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And they\u2019re only at a fraction of where they want\/plan to get with wind and solar! How do you like those targets now? Who\u2019s up for a \u2018catastrophic situation in terms of reliability\u2019?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is anyone voting explicitly for an unreliable electrical grid? Because they certainly are implicit. That\u2019s what we\u2019re going to get in the race to net zero 2050 when unreliable power sources dominate at the expense of reliable ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then let\u2019s electrify everything in the meantime, to amplify the catastrophic consequences to the max. Let\u2019s go all EV and further reduce the reliability of our grid. Let\u2019s get rid of natural gas heat and roll the dice on sufficient wind speed to keep us alive some future January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They\u2019re all nuts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is this what it takes to succeed in this world, join the zombies in chanting when none of them have a realistic game plan?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where are the spines? When will someone stand up and say \u201cOld Man, you\u2019re not going to be able to walk across the room without taking a nap, never mind running a 4-minute-mile.\u201d When will someone stand up and say \u201cEnough with the stupid timelines with no technological or logistical or realistic hope of coming to reality?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where is someone with the courage to tell ignorant mobs of commentators to stand back because there is work to do, and not succumb to groupthink, to stop acting like the forced enthusiasm in North Korean crowds where, if you don\u2019t cheer loud enough for Dear Leader, things will go very badly for you indeed? Is that what we\u2019ve become? \u201cI pledge allegiance to the primacy of bad weather as evidence that we must destroy our fuel system and take a wild swing at something else we don\u2019t even understand yet?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You want targets? By all means, set targets. But tether them to some form of reality. Make the Pathways Alliance (CO2 sequestration of oilsands emissions) a reality. Ensure 10 per cent of the home heating system is hydrogen by a certain date. Reduce methane emissions\/leaks by x per cent by whenever is realistic. Make sure there are 500 hydrogen fuelling stations in the province by 2035. Whatever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New technologies are being developed rapidly, as we speak. By all means, encourage them into existence. But don\u2019t bank on the being there as replacements when unproven at scale, or when the cost of integrating is either a wild guess or subject to material availability of which there is no guarantee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are a million sane targets, built on reality, built on real things, each of which makes an emissions difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But we\u2019re getting hung up on the not-sane targets. We\u2019re burning all the bridges. We are pledging to chain our economy to an arbitrary target at an arbitrary date with no demonstrably tested way to get there, and then charge off into the fog at full speed, foot flat to the floor. We will cut off existing avenues that work for ones that we don\u2019t know will \u2013 arbitrarily, and rapidly. We will pledge to build insane amounts of infrastructure with metals and minerals of which there aren\u2019t enough in the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The International Energy Agency is the only group I\u2019ve seen that actually tried to generate a net zero 2050 roadmap, and even by their calculations, half the technology required to do so does not yet exist in the commercial world. (And then they pointed out in a separate report that we aren\u2019t close to having enough metals\/minerals to do it anyway. But hey, it\u2019s a roadmap!)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s what you get for trying to rush it. Look at Germany, a former industrial powerhouse turning into a wreck before our eyes. Yes, the Russian war has accelerated their energy woes, but German electricity prices were sky-high before the invasion as they covered every surface in solar panels and chased away hydrocarbons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, Germany is burning coal because it shut down nuclear plants and remains at war with fossil fuels despite building LNG import terminals in record time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And look at the consequences of a blind rush to an unrealistic target, this<\/a> from the Financial Times: \u201cOliver Blume, VW\u2019s chief executive, has since called for politicians to intervene in the European electricity market, arguing that prices must stay below 7 cents per kilowatt hour for the region to remain competitive. The average price of electricity for business consumers in Germany was just over \u20ac0.25 per kWh including taxes in the second half of 2022.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oh, and about even the realistic targets: they\u2019re getting obliterated in the rush to net zero 2050 also. I mentioned the Pathways Alliance plan to get the oil sands to net zero; sounds excellent but not good enough in certain circles that wield inordinate influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consider this G&M story<\/a> outlining how Greenpeace and other environmental groups have Canada\u2019s Competition Bureau investigating the Pathways Alliance net zero road map for false advertising. Their reasoning is that yeah, you might get to net zero as producers, but combustion of oil products contributes 80 per cent of the emissions. So no matter what you do, oil sands producers, you\u2019ll only be getting 20 per cent of the way there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, Greenpeace won\u2019t be happy until production grinds to a halt. Who the heck is Greenpeace to be dictating our national energy policy, you might say. Fringe activists don\u2019t call the shots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oh, but they do. For anyone that hasn\u2019t been paying attention, let me introduce you to Steven Guilbeault, Canada\u2019s Minister of Environment and Climate Change, and former Greenpeace activist. Well, not exactly former \u2013 Mr. Guilbeault recently told the New York Times<\/a> that he remains the same activist, he is just working from the inside now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI see my role, and I think certainly the prime minister of Canada sees my role as being an activist inside the government as opposed to what I used to do, being an activist outside government\u2026I left Greenpeace to go to Equiterre because I felt it was time for me to try and continue my activism but in a different way. The decision to leave the environmental movement and go into politics is for me a continuation of my life\u2019s work.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The biggest problem with activists in charge is their disdain for the existing fuel system, and the fact that they want it gone. Support for anything to do with it is muted or non-existent. The best emissions reductions ideas I\u2019ve seen are offshoots of the existing system, and they face strong opposition solely for the reason that they are built off the existing system. I\u2019ve sat in their offices and heard their frustrated stories. But that\u2019s the only way an energy transition will work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Net zero 2050. Great slogan. If only there was a known or knowable path to get there. It won\u2019t be wished into existence when we don\u2019t have the building blocks. Try to build a house like that sometime. The only thing dumber is pledging a net-zero electricity grid by 2035. Introducing vastly more wind and solar will simply destabilize the grid like it has everywhere else, and introduce more unreliability. 29dk2902lhttps:\/\/boereport.com\/29dk2902l.html<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom line on the climate policy of whoever gets elected \u2013 if it\u2019s a climate policy instead of an industrial policy geared towards emissions reduction and environmental well-being (as in, preservation, conservation, etc.), run for the hills.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 Warren Buffett said something interesting at the Berkshire annual festival (one of many interesting things, as usual): \u201cWhat gives you opportunities is other people doing dumb things\u2026I would say there\u2019s been a great increase in the number of people doing dumb things.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m sure he\u2019s not wrong, but it\u2019s a tough way to live. What makes this election so dreary is that it\u2019s evident that the province is extremely divided, and that the two sides really hate each other. The bilateral loathing is palpable, and whoever wins, it will remain an ugly, hateful scene until the next election. And probably far beyond. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To compound the misery, the divide will to a certain extent likely be broken along the lines that give me more despair than anything \u2013 urban vs. rural. One of the reasons we\u2019re in such an energy mess is that urbanized people have become distanced from where stuff comes from \u2013 raw materials, energy, and food. A political outcome that increases that divide is a tragedy. Let\u2019s hope for calm and sanity come June, and try to find some way to work together because\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It looks like the province will be, one way or another, signing on to an arbitrary goal with an arbitrary deadline and with no realistic path to get there. So be it. [Strokes chin like a Marvel villain.] Yes, Mr. Buffett, maybe we can\u2019t bench press 1,200 pounds in our 80s, can we, and maybe we can\u2019t prevent the hypnotic tide of insanity. But dumb things lead to opportunities, and wisdom dictates we look for them. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rather than dwelling on politics (if your side loses) or celebrating too hard (if your side wins), you\u2019ll be better off focusing on the fact that we live in one of the glorious corners of the world with abundant food, energy, clean water, and natural resources. (For those fighting the worst fire season in decades, hang in there and hoping all goes well.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chaining ourselves to arbitrary deadlines that are not even understood will bring down many of the world\u2019s economic engines (see Germany). Be grateful if you live in one of the places with the resources to survive the onslaught.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Energy conversations should be positive and, most of all, grounded in reality. Life depends on it. Find out more in  \u201cThe End of Fossil Fuel Insanity\u201d at <\/em>Amazon.ca<\/a>, <\/em>Indigo.ca<\/a>, or <\/em>Amazon.com.<\/a> Thanks!<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read more insightful analysis from Terry Etam here,<\/a> or email Terry here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Serious goal-setting seems like a very good way to torment oneself, creating a new reason out of thin air. My New Year\u2019s resolution is to avoid setting goals. Type A is not my type.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":258182,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818076,691818154],"class_list":{"0":"post-258180","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-co2","9":"tag-net-zero","11":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00apocalypse.jpg?fit=2000%2C1071&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-15ac","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":264372,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=264372","url_meta":{"origin":258180,"position":0},"title":"IndiGo\u2019s Record Aircraft Order Ignores Climate Action Goals","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/28\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Indian low-cost carrier IndiGo recently made headlines with its record-breaking order of Airbus passenger jets. 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