{"id":257187,"date":"2023-05-13T13:42:33","date_gmt":"2023-05-13T11:42:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=257187"},"modified":"2023-05-13T13:42:36","modified_gmt":"2023-05-13T11:42:36","slug":"excessive-rainfall-in-texas-next-several-days-with-a-focus-on-the-rio-grande","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=257187","title":{"rendered":"Excessive rainfall in Texas next several days with a focus on the Rio Grande"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"
The Rio Grande river between the USA and Mexico viewed from Big Bend National Park.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meteorologist Paul Dorian<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Excessive rainfall amounts over the next ten days or so will be centered over the state of Texas with a special focus in the Rio Grande border region between Texas and Mexico. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather<\/mark><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overview<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The central third of the nation will be the part of the country with the most rainfall in coming days and also the highest likelihood for severe weather.\u00a0 An area of focus for the rainfall will be the state of Texas with a big concern for excessive amounts in the Texas\/Mexico Rio Grande border region.\u00a0 Severe weather including isolated tornadoes is a threat on Thursday from Kansas-to-Oklahoma and to the east of there across Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi. Severe weather will remain as a threat in the same (central) part of the nation in coming days as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Severe weather threat exists Thursday\/Thursday night across portions of the central US and the same part of the nation will be a threat zone on Friday and Saturday as well. Maps courtesy NOAA\/Storm Prediction Center<\/mark><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Details<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rain can be excessive over the next five-to-ten days across the Lone Star State of Texas with a specific focus likely over the Rio Grande border region between Texas and Mexico.\u00a0 Multiple rounds of rain in coming days could easily produce 6-12 inch amounts leading to potential flooding issues along the Rio Grande.\u00a0 One of the culprits of the active weather pattern over the central states will be the persistence of upper-level lows in the region from Baja California to central Mexico and this will contribute to the atmospheric instability over places like the Texas\/Mexico Rio Grande border region. While the rain will be most intense across Texas in coming days, it will also be quite heavy across the eastern sections of the Rocky Mountain States and the western Plains. In fact, there can be flooding issues later Thursday and Thursday night across eastern Montana, eastern Wyoming and the northeastern part of Colorado\u2026accumulating snow is also on the scene in some of the highest mountains of the Colorado Rockies where skiing will be quite good for many weeks to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In addition to a continuing influx of colder-than-normal air masses into the central US, another ingredient leading to unstable weather conditions in the foreseeable future will be persistent upper-level low across the region from Baja California to central Mexico. Maps courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com<\/mark><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another ingredient to the very unsettled weather pattern in the central US will be the continuing influx of colder-than-normal air masses. These colder-than-normal air masses will clash with entranced warm, humid air across the Lower Mississippi Valley leading to an \u201catmospheric battle zone\u201d region. This ingredient along with dry air at the surface (i.e., dry line) and strong upper-level jet streaks will likely lead to severe weather including tornadoes later Thursday and Thursday night with the main area of concern being \u201ctornado alley\u201d from Kansas-to-Oklahoma and a bit farther to the east of there from Louisiana and Arkansas into Mississippi. The greatest severe weather threat over the next couple of days will stay pretty much in the same parts of the country (i.e., the central US\/Mississippi Valley).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

An influx of colder-than-normal into the central US next week-to-ten days will generate a \u201cbattle ground\u201d region as a \u201cclash\u201d develops between the colder, drier air to the west and the entrenched warm, humid air to the east. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, tropicaltidbits.com<\/mark><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Follow us on Facebook<\/a>, Twitter<\/a>, YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Video discussion<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Excessive rainfall amounts over the next ten days or so will be centered over the state of Texas with a special focus in the Rio Grande border region between Texas and Mexico. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":257196,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819519,691819518,691818473],"class_list":["post-257187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-excessive-rainfall","tag-rio-grande-river","tag-weather","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Ordelheide_20170311-_N4A4094_riograndcurves.jpg?fit=1400%2C933&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-14Ub","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":421539,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=421539","url_meta":{"origin":257187,"position":0},"title":"While Newsom combs his hair, Trump is protecting California from raw sewage","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/16\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Since the 1930s, Mexico has released hundreds of billions of gallons of untreated raw sewage into the Tijuana River, which flows north into San Diego County. This has caused years-long beach closures, foul odors, degradation of the Tijuana River Valley, and lost economic opportunity. 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Atmospheric river events are not new to the region, nor is there evidence that they have intensified over time.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/0flood-g9b0d3460a_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/0flood-g9b0d3460a_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/0flood-g9b0d3460a_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/0flood-g9b0d3460a_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/0flood-g9b0d3460a_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":413688,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=413688","url_meta":{"origin":257187,"position":2},"title":"Storm Claudia","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/18\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"There has been minor flooding elsewhere, but I am not aware of anything else major.","rel":"","context":"In \"floods\"","block_context":{"text":"floods","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=floods"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOqx5wB3bCCBm_I2fJvJ8CY-6G_EeBcH9fLb6iAh04Ap-iuJCGIqiG_TSQAliBNkWM-qLutpOKb7ZVqnhwt6rBGkFD7Lm6XScFjZeQMucILcRzhO_BYMPNLTNlA-WLl-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOqx5wB3bCCBm_I2fJvJ8CY-6G_EeBcH9fLb6iAh04Ap-iuJCGIqiG_TSQAliBNkWM-qLutpOKb7ZVqnhwt6rBGkFD7Lm6XScFjZeQMucILcRzhO_BYMPNLTNlA-WLl-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOqx5wB3bCCBm_I2fJvJ8CY-6G_EeBcH9fLb6iAh04Ap-iuJCGIqiG_TSQAliBNkWM-qLutpOKb7ZVqnhwt6rBGkFD7Lm6XScFjZeQMucILcRzhO_BYMPNLTNlA-WLl-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOqx5wB3bCCBm_I2fJvJ8CY-6G_EeBcH9fLb6iAh04Ap-iuJCGIqiG_TSQAliBNkWM-qLutpOKb7ZVqnhwt6rBGkFD7Lm6XScFjZeQMucILcRzhO_BYMPNLTNlA-WLl-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOqx5wB3bCCBm_I2fJvJ8CY-6G_EeBcH9fLb6iAh04Ap-iuJCGIqiG_TSQAliBNkWM-qLutpOKb7ZVqnhwt6rBGkFD7Lm6XScFjZeQMucILcRzhO_BYMPNLTNlA-WLl-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":400584,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=400584","url_meta":{"origin":257187,"position":3},"title":"No, BBC, Climate Change Isn\u2019t Causing Water Shortages in Scotland","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/06\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The BBC published a story by Scotland editor, James Cook, blaming climate change for low catchment, river, and reservoir levels across the country. A detailed look at actual data shows this is false. 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Elsewhere only minor flooding seems to have occurred.","rel":"","context":"In \"Flooding\"","block_context":{"text":"Flooding","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=flooding"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQNmdLdQxX8DPh9eBqRvG3fPA9t8xj7kbBHjL4uGcPlg9HY9NgokMQESL5Mi6C5_N4L9bD6t9iuntELvD2j71OcRCPxt137x6-Q-J3OwPys2O5xqRtu9mu44_ggREl7U.jpeg?fit=1200%2C788&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQNmdLdQxX8DPh9eBqRvG3fPA9t8xj7kbBHjL4uGcPlg9HY9NgokMQESL5Mi6C5_N4L9bD6t9iuntELvD2j71OcRCPxt137x6-Q-J3OwPys2O5xqRtu9mu44_ggREl7U.jpeg?fit=1200%2C788&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQNmdLdQxX8DPh9eBqRvG3fPA9t8xj7kbBHjL4uGcPlg9HY9NgokMQESL5Mi6C5_N4L9bD6t9iuntELvD2j71OcRCPxt137x6-Q-J3OwPys2O5xqRtu9mu44_ggREl7U.jpeg?fit=1200%2C788&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQNmdLdQxX8DPh9eBqRvG3fPA9t8xj7kbBHjL4uGcPlg9HY9NgokMQESL5Mi6C5_N4L9bD6t9iuntELvD2j71OcRCPxt137x6-Q-J3OwPys2O5xqRtu9mu44_ggREl7U.jpeg?fit=1200%2C788&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQNmdLdQxX8DPh9eBqRvG3fPA9t8xj7kbBHjL4uGcPlg9HY9NgokMQESL5Mi6C5_N4L9bD6t9iuntELvD2j71OcRCPxt137x6-Q-J3OwPys2O5xqRtu9mu44_ggREl7U.jpeg?fit=1200%2C788&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/257187","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=257187"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/257187\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":257198,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/257187\/revisions\/257198"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/257196"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=257187"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=257187"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=257187"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}