{"id":256798,"date":"2023-05-10T21:03:09","date_gmt":"2023-05-10T19:03:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=256798"},"modified":"2023-05-10T21:03:12","modified_gmt":"2023-05-10T19:03:12","slug":"new-study-90-of-recent-warming-is-from-shortwave-cloud-forcinghumans-contributed-0-03c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=256798","title":{"rendered":"New Study: 90% Of Recent Warming Is From Shortwave Cloud Forcing\u2026Humans Contributed 0.03\u00b0C"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"452\" data-attachment-id=\"256807\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=256807\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0-Cloud-Forcing.jpeg?fit=1920%2C1200&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1920,1200\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0-Cloud-Forcing\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0-Cloud-Forcing.jpeg?fit=723%2C452&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0-Cloud-Forcing.jpeg?resize=723%2C452&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-256807\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0-Cloud-Forcing.jpeg?resize=1024%2C640&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0-Cloud-Forcing.jpeg?resize=300%2C188&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0-Cloud-Forcing.jpeg?resize=768%2C480&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0-Cloud-Forcing.jpeg?resize=1536%2C960&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0-Cloud-Forcing.jpeg?resize=1200%2C750&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0-Cloud-Forcing.jpeg?w=1920&amp;ssl=1 1920w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0-Cloud-Forcing.jpeg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"http:\/\/NoTricksZone\">NoTricksZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>By\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/notrickszone.com\/author\/kenneth-richard\/\">Kenneth Richard<\/a>\u00a0on\u00a0<\/em>8. May 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"542\" data-attachment-id=\"256805\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=256805\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0cloud-forcing-l.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1024,768\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0cloud-forcing-l\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0cloud-forcing-l.jpg?fit=723%2C542&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0cloud-forcing-l.jpg?resize=723%2C542&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-256805\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0cloud-forcing-l.jpg?w=1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0cloud-forcing-l.jpg?resize=300%2C225&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0cloud-forcing-l.jpg?resize=768%2C576&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0cloud-forcing-l.jpg?resize=800%2C600&amp;ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0cloud-forcing-l.jpg?resize=400%2C300&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0cloud-forcing-l.jpg?resize=200%2C150&amp;ssl=1 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Data analysis again reveals the increase in absorbed shortwave forcing has been driving modern climate change since the 1970s. CO2 changes are more of an effect than a cause of temperature increases.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scientists have for years been pointing to the causality sequencing problem inherent in the claim that CO2 is the driver of temperature changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The sequencing observation clearly supports the conclusion that variations in the CO2 growth rate lag changes in temperatures by about 4-10 months (<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0921818112001658\">Humlum et al., 2013<\/a><\/strong>,&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2413-4155\/2\/4\/83\">Koutsoyiannis and Kundzewicz, 2020<\/a><\/strong>,&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/abs\/10.1098\/rspa.2021.0836\">Koutsoyiannis et al., 2022<\/a><\/strong>). Effects can only lag \u2013 not lead \u2013 causes.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/notrickszone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/CO2-temperature-variance-explained-by-temperature-not-fossil-fuel-emissions-Wang-2013.jpg?ssl=1\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">Image Source:\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.1219683110\">Wang et al., 2013<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/pnas.1219683110.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of pnas.1219683110.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-fde8829a-4652-4f87-a6e3-b66b5f0b1bb9\" href=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/pnas.1219683110.pdf\">pnas.1219683110<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/pnas.1219683110.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-fde8829a-4652-4f87-a6e3-b66b5f0b1bb9\">Herunterladen<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Building on this temperature\u2192CO2 directional causality, Jyrki Kauppinen and Pekka Malmi (<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2304.01245\">2023<\/a><\/strong>), Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Turku, have used existing CO2 and temperature data to calculate an 83 ppm CO2 increase associated with a 1\u00b0C surface temperature increase. The authors suggest this 83 ppm\/\u00b0C value is consistent with Henry\u2019s Law and CO2 residence time calculations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kauppinen and Malmi further assess the warming in recent decades has been predominantly (90%) driven by the increase in absorbed solar radiation due to the downward trend in cloud cover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The greenhouse effect has contributed just 10% to the warming trend, and the human contribution to the CO2 concentration changes is only a fraction (hundredths of a degree) of that 10% impact \u2013 about 0.03\u00b0C since 1980.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thus, not only is the \u201ccausality used in IPCC reports wrong,\u201d but \u201cthe greenhouse effect cannot explain climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cSince 1970, according to the observations, the changes of the low cloud cover have caused practically the observed temperature changes. The low cloud cover has gradually decreased starting in 1975. The human contribution was about 0.01\u00b0C in 1980 and now it is close 0.03\u00b0C.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/notrickszone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Temperature-change-causes-CO2-change-human-contribution-to-warming-0.03C-since-1980-Kauppinen-Malmi-2023.jpg?ssl=1\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">Image Source:\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2304.01245.pdf\">Kauppinen and Malmi, 2023<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/2304.01245.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of 2304.01245.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-282e4487-98f5-4fd8-93f8-b3944e974ab7\" href=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/2304.01245.pdf\">2304.01245<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/2304.01245.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-282e4487-98f5-4fd8-93f8-b3944e974ab7\">Herunterladen<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Thus, not only is the \u201ccausality used in IPCC reports wrong,\u201d but \u201cthe greenhouse effect cannot explain climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":256807,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818076],"class_list":{"0":"post-256798","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-co2","11":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0-Cloud-Forcing.jpeg?fit=1920%2C1200&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-14NU","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":325450,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=325450","url_meta":{"origin":256798,"position":0},"title":"Post-1980s Increases In Shortwave Radiation Explains Europe\u2019s Warming Trends Far Better Than CO2","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Across Europe there has been a downward trend in cloud and aerosol albedo over the last 40 years, allowing more solar radiation to reach the surface. This \u201cbrightening\u201d effect thus explains recent warming.","rel":"","context":"In \"CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/08-Figure2-1.png?fit=1200%2C893&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/08-Figure2-1.png?fit=1200%2C893&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/08-Figure2-1.png?fit=1200%2C893&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/08-Figure2-1.png?fit=1200%2C893&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/08-Figure2-1.png?fit=1200%2C893&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":306163,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=306163","url_meta":{"origin":256798,"position":1},"title":"The Continuing Albedo Change Warms the Earth More Than Twice as Much as CO2","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Earth\u2019s reflectivity is measured by\u00a0albedo\u00a0(a latin word meaning \u2018whiteness\u2019). Albedo measures the proportion of solar irradiation that is reflected back to space, either by the ground or in the atmosphere.","rel":"","context":"In \"Albedo\"","block_context":{"text":"Albedo","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=albedo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00ef932e_e6287be66f6249448cffdaaa7c295fe6mv1.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00ef932e_e6287be66f6249448cffdaaa7c295fe6mv1.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00ef932e_e6287be66f6249448cffdaaa7c295fe6mv1.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00ef932e_e6287be66f6249448cffdaaa7c295fe6mv1.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00ef932e_e6287be66f6249448cffdaaa7c295fe6mv1.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":342670,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342670","url_meta":{"origin":256798,"position":2},"title":"Satellite Observations Confirm 2000-\u201922 Warming Has Been Due To An Increasing Solar Radiation Trend","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/11\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Satellite observations from CERES (Clouds and the Earth\u2019s Radiant Energy System) indicate cloud cover has been declining since 2000. Declining cloud cover has meant less shortwave radiation has been reflected to space, resulting in an increase in the solar radiation absorbed by the Earth\u2019s surface (ocean).","rel":"","context":"In \"CERES (Clouds and the Earth\u2019s Radiant Energy System)\"","block_context":{"text":"CERES (Clouds and the Earth\u2019s Radiant Energy System)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ceres-clouds-and-the-earths-radiant-energy-system"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0AdobeStock_266865139.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0AdobeStock_266865139.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0AdobeStock_266865139.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0AdobeStock_266865139.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0AdobeStock_266865139.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":391371,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=391371","url_meta":{"origin":256798,"position":3},"title":"CERES Satellite Data Suggests Low Climate Sensitivity","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/29\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"From the\u00a0Friends of Science Society\u00a0Newsletter, where they give our own Willis Eschenbach props and suggestions for his important recent work \u2013 Anthony","rel":"","context":"In \"atmospheric circulation\"","block_context":{"text":"atmospheric circulation","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atmospheric-circulation"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/AQMYbziJPlrNfPw2fMRJSk9XYLefd1KxspQL-TrOX9jYRkF0-tyDdM5MrlJOBPPBzpD6ebOxbZbmOgsTAC3-o7v5RDmM91gO9hdtwDLqC0fPadckbZp46VIkQNXeefytpqp_gCHmsU4-s4bPOcrM-d9E8xbskg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/AQMYbziJPlrNfPw2fMRJSk9XYLefd1KxspQL-TrOX9jYRkF0-tyDdM5MrlJOBPPBzpD6ebOxbZbmOgsTAC3-o7v5RDmM91gO9hdtwDLqC0fPadckbZp46VIkQNXeefytpqp_gCHmsU4-s4bPOcrM-d9E8xbskg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/AQMYbziJPlrNfPw2fMRJSk9XYLefd1KxspQL-TrOX9jYRkF0-tyDdM5MrlJOBPPBzpD6ebOxbZbmOgsTAC3-o7v5RDmM91gO9hdtwDLqC0fPadckbZp46VIkQNXeefytpqp_gCHmsU4-s4bPOcrM-d9E8xbskg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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