{"id":256198,"date":"2023-05-06T13:53:23","date_gmt":"2023-05-06T11:53:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=256198"},"modified":"2023-05-06T13:53:32","modified_gmt":"2023-05-06T11:53:32","slug":"introducing-the-realitometer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=256198","title":{"rendered":"Introducing the Realitometer"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A third of a century has passed since 1990, when IPCC made its first predictions of global warming. Over the 400 months since January 1990, IPCC\u2019s original predictions of 0.2-0.5 C warming per decade over the following century (below) have proven grossly excessive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In 1990, IPCC also predicted that at midrange doubling the CO2<\/sub>\u00a0in the air would cause 3 C global warming \u2013 the same warming as the predicted warming from a century of anthropogenic emissions from all sources. In 2021, IPCC predicted that warming by doubled CO2<\/sub>\u00a0would be 2 to 5 C, with a best estimate of 3 C, ten times the decadal predictions in 1990.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Realitometer, which will be published each month, shows the real-world global warming per century equivalent since January 1990 from the satellite monthly temperature dataset of the University of Alabama in Huntsville, compared with IPCC\u2019s range of predictions and with the midrange 3.9 C centennial-equivalent warming predicted in the CMIP6 models.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Realitometer shows a mere 1.33 C\/century equivalent real-world warming over a third of a century. The CMIP6 models\u2019 midrange 3.9 C prediction is thus proving to be a shocking 293% overshoot compared with real-world warming. IPCC\u2019s 2-5 C predictions are 150% to 375% of real-world warming. Yet since then IPCC has not reduced its predictions, first made in 1990, to bring them somewhere within range of observed reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IPCC based its predictions in 1990 on four emissions scenarios A-D. Scenario A was the \u201cbusiness-as-usual\u201d scenario. It assumed substantial growth in annual emissions compared with 1990. Scenario B predicted no growth in annual emissions by now compared with 1990. In reality, annual emissions have grown by more than half since 1990. Emissions to 2021, the last full year for which figures are available, track the business-as-usual scenario A exactly. Yet the warming predicted under Scenario A is simply not occurring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Realitometer relies on satellite-measured temperature anomalies because the data are not contaminated, as the terrestrial datasets are, by the urban heat-island effect, the direct warming by emission of heat from cities, which is insufficiently corrected for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UAH v.6 rather than other satellite datasets (RSS v.4, NOAA v.4 and Washington U v.1) is used because, as Andy May has pointed out in a distinguished column here, UAH alone has corrected the spurious data in the older NOAA-11 to NOAA-14 satellite instruments and because, after that correction, the UAH data conform far more closely than any of the other satellite datasets to the radiosonde data, an independent yardstick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Month by inexorable month, the Realitometer will show just how absurdly exaggerated were and are the official predictions of global warming on which easily-manipulated governments \u2013 in Western nations only \u2013 have predicated their economy-destroying net-zero policies. Those policies are based on the notion that at midrange there will be almost three times as much global warming as has been occurring. Yet not one mainstream news medium has reported just how startlingly large the ratio of prediction to reality is proving to be.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Realitometer, which will be published each month, shows the real-world global warming per century equivalent since January 1990 from the satellite monthly temperature dataset of the University of Alabama in Huntsville, compared with IPCC\u2019s range of predictions and with the midrange 3.9 C centennial-equivalent warming predicted in the CMIP6 models.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":256206,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818090,691818698,691818076,691818381],"class_list":{"0":"post-256198","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-warning","9":"tag-cmip6-models","10":"tag-co2","11":"tag-ipcc","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0-reality-check.jpg?fit=1280%2C720&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-14Ee","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":385343,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=385343","url_meta":{"origin":256198,"position":0},"title":"Scafetta: Climate Models Have\u00a0Issues","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/06\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) global climate models\u00a0(GCMs) assess\u00a0that nearly\u00a0100% of global surface warming\u00a0observed\u00a0between 1850\u20131900 and 2011\u20132020 is attributable to\u00a0anthropogenic drivers like\u00a0greenhouse gas emissions.\u00a0These models\u00a0also generate future climate projections based on shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), aiding in risk assessment and the development of costly \u201cNet-Zero\u201d climate mitigation strategies.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":307625,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=307625","url_meta":{"origin":256198,"position":1},"title":"Climate Model Bias 6: WGII","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The previous parts of this series investigated model bias in the CMIP6 models and in their interpretation in AR6 WGI. This part looks at model bias in AR6 WGII,\u00a0Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability.","rel":"","context":"In \"AR6 WGII\"","block_context":{"text":"AR6 WGII","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ar6-wgii"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0-Climate-Model-Bias-6.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0-Climate-Model-Bias-6.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0-Climate-Model-Bias-6.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0-Climate-Model-Bias-6.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0-Climate-Model-Bias-6.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":227913,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=227913","url_meta":{"origin":256198,"position":2},"title":"How IPCC\u2019s 1990 Predictions Expensively Failed","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/11\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"It has indeed been business as usual since 1990, notwithstanding all the rhetoric and all the conferences and all the climate Communists gluing themselves to the road in protest at the continued survival of the hated free West.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-287.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-287.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-287.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-287.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":238971,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=238971","url_meta":{"origin":256198,"position":3},"title":"The Global Emissions Experiment: A 33-Year Audit","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Almost a third of a century has passed since IPCC issued its\u00a0First Assessment Report\u00a0in 1990. 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