{"id":256148,"date":"2023-05-05T21:44:29","date_gmt":"2023-05-05T19:44:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=256148"},"modified":"2023-05-05T21:44:32","modified_gmt":"2023-05-05T19:44:32","slug":"new-study-climate-models-have-uncertainties-errors-over-100x-larger-than-claimed-drivers-of-warming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=256148","title":{"rendered":"New Study: Climate Models Have Uncertainties, Errors Over 100x Larger Than Claimed Drivers Of Warming"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From NoTricksZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a>\u00a0on\u00a0<\/em>4. May 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Per a new study on the hydrological cycle\u2019s role in climate change, today\u2019s state-of-the-art climate models \u201cassume the mean relative humidity at the ocean surface is constant.\u201d They are also known to \u201cassume unchanged wind conditions.\u201d Even with this imaginary constancy, \u201cuncertainties in modeling the hydrological cycle significantly [orders of magnitude, or more than 100-fold] exceed the observed effects of global warming.\u201d<\/strong><\/h4><\/p>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In a summarizing analysis of the thermodynamics associated with Earth\u2019s hydrological processes (Koutsoyiannis, 2021<\/a><\/strong>), we learn that the impact of the natural heat exchange by evaporation, or the latent heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere, is approximately 80 W\/m\u00b2\/year<\/strong>, or 1,290 ZJ\/year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Total climate impacts from human greenhouse gas emissions amount to only  0.038 W\/m\u00b2\/year <\/strong>(0.612 ZJ\/year in 2014).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, Earth\u2019s \u201cnatural locomotive\u201d is about 2,100 times larger than claimed for anthropogenic forcing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is therefore clearly evident that \u201cwater is the main element that drives climate, rather than just being affected by climate as commonly thought.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Image Source:\u00a0Koutsoyiannis, 2021<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The below quote selections from a new review paper (Feistel and Hellmuth, 2023<\/a><\/strong>) on the thermodynamics of air-sea processes (i.e., evaporation) expand on the extreme nature of this magnitude differential in even more detail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ocean\u2019s heat capacity is 1,000 times larger than the atmosphere\u2019s. An ocean heat flux of 0.005 W\/m\u00b2\/year can thus warm air temperatures 2\u00b0C\/century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uncertainty in estimating latent heat flux and relative humidity is 5-6 W\/m\u00b2. This means uncertainty and error are about 1,100 times larger than the identified global warming terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The dominance of water in driving climatic processes is so massive that claims we can detect a 0.038 W\/m\u00b2\/year anthropogenic forcing signal amid the orders of magnitude larger background of internal or natural variability, uncertainty, and calculative error is, in a word, absurd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[T]he climate of the Earth is ultimately determined by the temperatures of the oceans,\u201d as \u201cthe oceans have a heat capacity about 1000 times greater than the atmosphere and land surface.\u201d Because this orders-of-magnitude oceanic dominance, even \u201ca minor heating flux of just 0.005 W\/m\u00b2 is sufficient to raise the atmospheric temperature at an observed rate of 2 \u00b0C per century.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[A]n error of 1% in RH [relative humidity] \u2026 would cause an error of 5 W\/m\u00b2 in the computed ocean atmosphere latent heat fluxes. For comparison, the observed global warming of the atmosphere is driven by a minor climatic forcing of only 0.005 W\/m\u00b2, the total anthropogenic power consumption amounts to 0.02 W\/m\u00b2, and the ocean is warming up by 0.5 W\/m\u00b2.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[N]umerical climate models possess uncertainties that exceed certain relevant, either observed or predicted, effects of global warming by orders of magnitude.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[T]he global mean of LHF [latent heat flux] was found to be overestimated in the MME [multi-model ensemble] by 5.9 W\/m\u00b2\u2026\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cObservations and models of oceanic evaporation typically deviate from one another by 6 W\/m\u00b2, or 6%.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf also expressed per global surface unit area, even an increase in the large oceanic heat content by as much as 0.5 W\/m\u00b2 would remain well below the model uncertainty range.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Image Source:\u00a0Feistel and Hellmuth, 2023<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Per a new study on the hydrological cycle\u2019s role in climate change, today\u2019s state-of-the-art climate models \u201cassume the mean relative humidity at the ocean surface is constant.\u201d They are also known to \u201cassume unchanged wind conditions.\u201d Even with this imaginary constancy, \u201cuncertainties in modeling the hydrological cycle significantly [orders of magnitude, or more than 100-fold] exceed the observed effects of global warming.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":254205,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818153,691818090,691818076,691818088],"class_list":{"0":"post-256148","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-models","9":"tag-climate-warning","10":"tag-co2","11":"tag-greenhouse-gases","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00modelsvsdata.png?fit=1920%2C1728&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-14Dq","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":367691,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=367691","url_meta":{"origin":256148,"position":0},"title":"New Study Reveals Unexpected Decline in Ocean Evaporation Amid Rising Sea Temperatures","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent study published in\u00a0Geophysical Research Letters, has turned up a surprising result: global ocean evaporation, a cornerstone of the hydrological cycle, has been declining since the late 2000s despite steadily warming sea surfaces. 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