{"id":255980,"date":"2023-05-04T19:31:56","date_gmt":"2023-05-04T17:31:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=255980"},"modified":"2023-05-04T19:31:59","modified_gmt":"2023-05-04T17:31:59","slug":"the-thinking-error-that-makes-people-susceptible-to-climate-change-denial","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=255980","title":{"rendered":"\u201cThe thinking error that makes people susceptible to climate change\u00a0denial\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essay by Eric Worrall<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Jeremy P Shapiro. Source\u00a0The Conversation<\/a>, Fair Use, Low Resolution Image to Identify the Subject.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026 Climate change deniers simplify the spectrum of possible scientific consensus into two categories: 100% agreement or no consensus at all. If it\u2019s not one, it\u2019s the other. \u2026\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The thinking error that makes people susceptible to climate change denial<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Published: May 2, 2023 10.13pm AEST
Jeremy P. Shapiro<\/a>
Adjunct Assistant Professor of Psychological Sciences, Case Western Reserve University<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cold spells often bring climate change deniers out in force on social media, with hashtags like #ClimateHoax and #ClimateScam<\/a>. Former President Donald Trump often chimes in, <\/strong>repeatedly claiming<\/strong><\/a> that each cold snap disproves the existence of global warming.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From a scientific standpoint, these claims of disproof are absurd. Fluctuations in the weather don\u2019t refute clear long-term trends in the climate<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet many people believe these claims, and the political result has been reduced willingness to take action to mitigate climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why are so many people susceptible to this type of disinformation? My field<\/a>, psychology, can help explain \u2013 and help people avoid being misled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The allure of black-and-white thinking<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Close examination of the arguments made by climate change deniers reveals the same mistake made over and over again. That mistake is the cognitive error known as black-and-white thinking, also called dichotomous and all-or-none thinking. As I explain in my book \u201cFinding Goldilocks<\/a>,\u201d black-and-white thinking is a source of dysfunction in mental health, relationships \u2013 and politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate change deniers simplify the spectrum of possible scientific consensus into two categories: 100% agreement or no consensus at all. If it\u2019s not one, it\u2019s the other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026Read more: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-thinking-error-that-makes-people-susceptible-to-climate-change-denial-204607<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Do any of you seriously believe a single cold snap disproves global warming?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I personally support the premise that the world has warmed since the mid 1800s, and anthropogenic CO2 likely contributed. <\/strong>A single cold snap is not proof that global warming has stopped, that would be an absurd proposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But climate alarmists seem all too ready to promote the black and white thinking fallacy Professor Shapiro accuses deniers of embracing, they seem very ready to spin every heatwave as proof of the global warming end times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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3Q: Why Europe is so vulnerable to heat waves<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate modeling shows that this summer\u2019s devastating European heat wave may indeed be a harbinger of the future for that region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David L. Chandler | MIT News Office
Publication Date: October 11, 2022<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This year saw high-temperature records shattered across much of Europe, as crops withered in the fields due to widespread drought. Is this a harbinger of things to come as the Earth\u2019s climate steadily warms up? <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elfatih Eltahir, MIT professor of civil and environmental engineering and H. M. King Bhumibol Professor of Hydrology and Climate, and former doctoral student Alexandre Tuel PhD \u201920 recently published a piece in the <\/em>Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists describing how their research helps explain this anomalous European weather. The findings are based in part on analyses described in their book \u201cFuture Climate of the Mediterranean and Europe,\u201d<\/a> published earlier this year. <\/em>MIT News asked the two authors to describe the dynamics behind these extreme weather events.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Q:<\/strong> Was the European heat wave this summer anticipated based on existing climate models?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eltahir:<\/strong> Climate models project increasingly dry summers over Europe. This is especially true for the second half of the 21st century, and for southern Europe. Extreme dryness is often associated with hot conditions and heat waves, since any reduction in evaporation heats the soil and the air above it. In general, models agree in making such projections about European summers. However, understanding the physical mechanisms responsible for these projections is an active area of research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026Read more: https:\/\/news.mit.edu\/2022\/europe-heat-waves-climate-change-1011<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

What about Professor Shapiro\u2019s claim that President Trump thinks cold snaps disprove global warming?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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It's freezing and snowing in New York–we need global warming!<\/p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 7, 2012<\/a><\/blockquote>