{"id":255812,"date":"2023-05-03T20:34:05","date_gmt":"2023-05-03T18:34:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=255812"},"modified":"2023-05-03T20:34:09","modified_gmt":"2023-05-03T18:34:09","slug":"30-years-of-measuring-and-analysing-sea-levels-using-satellites","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=255812","title":{"rendered":"30 Years of Measuring and Analysing Sea Levels using Satellites"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Essay by Dr. Alan Welch FBIS FRAS, Ledbury, UK \u2014 3 May 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The release of the Sea Level Data up to Jan 2023 marks 30 years of satellite measurements using the quartet of satellites Topex and Jason 1, 2 and 3.  It also marks 5 years of my interest in sea level rises, not as a climate scientist, but as a chartered engineer with nearly 40 years\u2019 experience in engineering analysis.  This interest was stimulated by the 2018 paper by Nerem et al<\/a> (1) in which they introduced the concept of dangerously high sea level accelerations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A year ago, I produced 2 essays.  The first essay<\/a> (2) showed the \u201caccelerations\u201d derived were probably the outcome of the methodology used.  The second essay<\/a> (3) showed that 30 years is too short a period to derive a meaningful acceleration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The important graph in this update is Figure 3 which shows the change in \u201caccelerations\u201d using the Nerem approach when applied to the NASA data set and also to a sinusoidal data set.  When accelerations are embedded in \u201c \u201c it implies these are based on 2 times the quadratic coefficient of a curve fit and may not necessarily be considered as a physical acceleration per se.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every 1, 2 or 3 months the sea level data is released on the\u00a0https:\/\/climate.nasa.gov\/vital-signs\/sea-level\/<\/a>\u00a0web site and these data have been analysed continuously since Feb 2018.\u00a0 The latest readings were downloaded via the April 2023 NASA Climate Change Newsletter.\u00a0 Figure 1 shows the NASA Data together with linear and quadratic best fit curves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It is much easier to see trends when just the \u201cResiduals\u201d, the differences between actual values and the straight line, these being plotted in Figure 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

For most of the analyses since 2018 a sinusoidal curve with a period of 22 years and an amplitude of +\/- 3.5 mm was used.  In reference 2 this was judged as needing updating and the period and amplitude were increased by about 20% and a small change in phase shift applied.  The standard deviation of the residuals is 4.12mm whilst the standard deviations of the actual results about the quadratic and sinusoidal curves are 3.06 and 3.01 mm respectively implying  that the sinusoidal may be a slightly better fit.  (The use of an amplitude of +\/- 4.2 mm is slightly embarrassing as it implies a degree of exactitude that many \u201cclimate scientists\u201d would be proud of!).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In reference 2 the process of calculating \u201caccelerations\u201d for each successive batch of readings was applied to the sinusoidal curve and the resulting \u201cacceleration\u201d using the modified sinusoidal curve plotted in Figure 3 together with the actual derived \u201caccelerations\u201d.\u00a0 The sinusoidal curve has been (rightly or wrongly) extended to the year 2026.\u00a0 If extended much further the curve would approach zero in an oscillatory manner as shown in Note 2 of Reference 2 but this should not be considered a definite long-term prediction.\u00a0 The main danger in all climate change work is Extrapolation \u2013 a few years may be justified but many graphs are produced with eye watering amounts of extrapolation.\u00a0 Note the curve labelled \u201cSinusoidal\u201d is not sinusoidal in shape but relates to the fact that it is based on the sinusoidal data.\u00a0 (In the comments in reference 2 the way the original sinusoidal curve was handled was justifiably criticised as not being mathematically precise, but a pragmatic engineering approach (aka gut feeling) led to the idea presented in figure 3.\u00a0 With the previous sinusoidal equation, the 2 curves were separated by 3 years but displayed sufficient similarity as to point to a promising line of enquiry).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The calculated \u201caccelerations\u201d have been reducing with every set of data since peaking in Jan 2020 and Figure 4 plots the % reduction in perceived \u201caccelerations\u201d since Jan 2020.\u00a0 This works out at about 4.5% reduction per year.\u00a0 On the NASA Web Site reference is made to the recent La Ni\u00f1a event having reduced the \u201cacceleration\u201d so it will be interesting to see what the next year or two will bring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 5 combines the Linear Fit with the Sinusoidal Variation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Main Findings<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1 The perceived \u201caccelerations\u201d have been reducing month on month since peaking in Jan 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2 The Quadratic and Sinusoidal curves fit equally well.  Remember they are products of the data available and great restraint must be used if extrapolation is contemplated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3 Should the reduction in \u201caccelerations\u201d follow that shown by the sinusoidal curve as shown in figure 3 in 5 years\u2019 time or so the \u201cacceleration\u201d should be down to nearly half the 2020 peak.  (In 5 years, I\u2019ll be over 90 so hopefully someone else will pick up the batten if I shuffle off this mortal coil!)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4 A question (hypothetical?) that could be asked is if there is a small sinusoidal content in the variations where does it come from?\u00a0\u00a0 Possibly it is not within the data as measured but comes about by what is not measured.\u00a0\u00a0 The satellite readings only cover about 95% of the oceans.\u00a0 If there are decadal ocean oscillations across the +\/- 65 degree latitudes this could show up as a sinusoidal variation.\u00a0 Figure 6, from the NOAA site (https:\/\/www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov\/socd\/lsa\/SeaLevelRise\/LSA_SLR_timeseries.php<\/a>) shows the extent of the ignored polar regions in relation to the polar seas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

5 The variation considered is only +\/- 4.2 mm \u2013 that\u2019s just over 0.16 inches in old money \u2013 which is next to nothing in comparison with some of the ocean variation given in the NOAA site over the last 30 years.\u00a0 Examples worth inspecting are the northerly seas such as the Bering Sea and the North Sea.\u00a0 Figure 7, taken from the University of Colorado site,\u00a0https:\/\/sealevel.colorado.edu\/data<\/a>, showing variations of 20cm or more over the last 30 years.\u00a0 A change of 4.2 mm would only be as big as the \u201co\u201d in Colorado!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

References<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1.      Nerem, R. S., Beckley, B. D., Fasullo, J. T., Hamlington, B. D., Masters, D., & Mitchum, G. T. (2018). Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.<\/a> (full text .pdf<\/a>)  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115<\/em>(9).  First published February 12, 2018 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2022\/05\/14\/sea-level-rise-acceleration-an-alternative-hypothesis\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3.  https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2022\/06\/28\/sea-level-rise-acceleration-an-alternative-hypothesis-part-2\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comment from Kip Hansen:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr. Welch has been working on these analyses for years and has put his findings for the now-30-year climatic-period length of satellite era sea level measurements together in this essay.  This and his two previous essays on the topic (linked in the essay and in the references) are offered here by Dr. Welch as an alternative hypothesis to Nerem (2018) ( .pdf<\/a> ) and Nerem (2022)<\/a>. [ In a practical sense, Nerem (2022) did not change anything substantial from the 2018 paper previously discussed by Welch.]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a personal note:  This is not my hypothesis<\/strong><\/em>.<\/strong>  I do not generally support curve fitting and an alternate curve fitting would not be my approach to sea level rise. I stand by my most recent opinions expressed in  \u201cSea Level: Rise and Fall \u2013 Slowing Down to Speed Up<\/a>\u201d.<\/strong> Overall, my views have been more than adequately aired in my many previous essays on sea levels and their rise or fall<\/a> here at WUWT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I find Dr. Welch\u2019s analyses interesting and feel strongly that Dr. Welch\u2019s analyses deserve to be seen and discussed.  I have encouraged him to present his findings here at WUWT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr. Welch lives in the U.K. and his responses to comments on this essay will be occurring on British Summer Time : UTC +1<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I find Dr. Welch\u2019s analyses interesting and feel strongly that Dr. Welch\u2019s analyses deserve to be seen and discussed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":255827,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818491,691819285],"class_list":{"0":"post-255812","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-nasa","9":"tag-sea-level-rises","11":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0359500989.jpg?fit=1920%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-14y0","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":312213,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=312213","url_meta":{"origin":255812,"position":0},"title":"Measuring 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https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0sea-level-rise-via-scientific-american-2000x858-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C515&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0sea-level-rise-via-scientific-american-2000x858-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C515&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0sea-level-rise-via-scientific-american-2000x858-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C515&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":337287,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=337287","url_meta":{"origin":255812,"position":1},"title":"Comparing UAH Temperatures , NASA Sea Levels and El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Data","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/07\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"LONG ESSAY WARNING:\u00a0 This essay is long and technical, 3300 words.\u00a0 Dr. Welch provides a summary for those less interested in the details of his analysis.","rel":"","context":"In \"El 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