{"id":255443,"date":"2023-05-01T11:59:39","date_gmt":"2023-05-01T09:59:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=255443"},"modified":"2023-05-01T11:59:42","modified_gmt":"2023-05-01T09:59:42","slug":"the-top-scientist-who-warned-of-a-coming-ice-age-then-switched-to-catastrophic-global-warming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=255443","title":{"rendered":"The Top Scientist Who Warned of a Coming Ice Age \u2013 Then Switched to \u201cCatastrophic\u201d Global Warming"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

BY\u00a0CHRIS MORRISON<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Fresh insights into the ruthless suppression of plausible alternative explanations surrounding the effect of rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are contained in a new book<\/a> written by former lawyer, Jeremy Nieboer, and published by the right of centre think tank, the Bruges Group. The hypothesis that CO2<\/sub> \u2018saturates\u2019 after a certain level, and its warming properties fall away dramatically, has been around for many years. In recent times, and in the interests of promoting the collectivist Net Zero project, it has been ignored under \u2018settled\u2019 science requirements in favour of the rival suggestion that humans control the climate by burning fossil fuel. Nieboer highlights the crucial role of the late Professor Stephen Schneider who promoted the saturation hypothesis in the early 1970s when the global temperature was falling, but switched suddenly to the tenets of anthropogenic warming when it started to rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nieboer draws attention to a remark Professor Schneider made later in life when he warned of \u201cdisastrous climate change\u201d, and said scientists have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts they might have. \u201cEach of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest,\u201d he suggested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The saturation hypothesis holds that CO2<\/sub> is a very efficient absorber of heat reflected from the Earth\u2019s surface within narrow bands of around 15 microns on the infrared spectrum. There is some debate about the level at which peak absorption is reached, but scientists say the absorption work is mainly done around 300 parts per million (ppm) concentration, about 100 ppm below the current atmospheric level. Since greenhouses gases such as CO2 <\/sub>are estimated to have raised the temperature of the Earth by 33\u00b0C, the role of some saturation is in fact widely accepted. Even the wild predictions of 5-6\u00b0C of heating in the next 80 years if CO2<\/sub> keeps rising are far less than a straight line projection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The saturation hypothesis is much more in line with scientific observations. It explains why CO2<\/sub> levels have been much higher in the past with no evidence of runaway temperatures. This observation alone casts serious doubt on the attempt to tie rising CO2<\/sub> levels caused by humans to automatic and potentially catastrophic rises in temperature. Even the last 25 years of a barely measurable temperature rise casts doubt on the alarmist hypothesis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course any acceptance of this rival saturation argument puts the tin hat on the transfer of vast amounts of wealth to those able to benefit from the enormous subsidies available to transform economies. It can be argued that Net Zero is a \u2018punch down\u2019 on a scale never witnessed before in human development. The rich, virtue-signalling elites may well benefit in the short run by picking up the cash, but it will be an unimaginable disaster for the poor in the West and, even more so, in the developing world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In July 1971, Stephen Schneider, then Professor of Biology and Global Change at Stanford University, published a paper with S. I. Rasool, Chief Scientists for Global Change at NASA, in which they calculated that increasing CO2<\/sub> in the atmosphere by a factor of eight would only increase the surface temperature by 2\u00b0C. Doubling the gas only boosts the temperature by 0.8\u00b0C. The scientists concluded that the runaway greenhouse effect does not occur because the 15 micron CO2<\/sub> saturates \u201cand the addition of more CO2<\/sub> does not substantially increase the infrared capacity of the atmosphere\u201d. The science can be complex, but a simplified illustration is to note that doubling the lagging in a house loft does not trap twice as much heat, since much of it has already been captured.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Five years later, Schneider was promoting a coming ice age with \u201cdisastrous consequences for food yields and famine in undeveloped countries\u201d. Shortly after, he said global cooling presented humankind with some of the most important challenges it has had to deal with for 10,000 years. Alas, the short burst of global cooling didn\u2019t last the decade, but fresh scares emerged to boost the rising green collectivist agenda. In the vanguard of mainstream opinion, Schneider switched tack and by 1989 he said man-made global warming could increase temperatures by 5\u00b0C by 2050, unless \u201cdrastic action\u201d was taken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nieboer doesn\u2019t pull any punches in describing Schneider\u2019s about-face. He was said to be \u201cat ease with the practice of deceit in order to persuade\u201d. He was \u201cindifferent\u201d to whether he was the champion of global cooling or warming. He worked with others on each of these \u201cfalsehoods\u201d, and used his professional position and status to \u201cconcoct an intellectual justification for extorting certainty from ambiguity\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fix was firmly in by the time Schneider wrote a subsequent book on global warming. In 357 pages, Nieboer notes there is no mention of saturation. The author suggests Schneider knew anthropogenic warming was falsified by the laws of spectroscopy and physics. \u201cNever at any moment since the emergence of multi-cellular life on Earth 570 million years ago had there been runaway warming for the reason that saturation by CO2<\/sub> rendered it impossible\u201d, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The saturation work of earlier scientists such as Schneider was confirmed recently by two distinguished atmospheric scientists, Emeritus Professor William Happer and Professor William van Wijngaarden. They completed highly complex work<\/a> on the spectrum to calculate per greenhouse gas molecule \u2018forcing\u201d. Their calculations provided results similar to earlier work. The two scientists worked on the assumption of a clear sky but if the effect of water vapour is taken into account, the warming results are lower still. Happer and Wijngaarden\u2019s research is backed by other recent calculations. The German physics professor Dieter Schildknecht notes<\/a> that atmospheric increases of CO2<\/sub> past 300 ppm \u201ccannot lead to an appreciably stronger absorption of radiation, and consequently cannot affect the Earth\u2019s climate\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story of the ever-adaptable Schneider gives an insight into the way climate science has been captured and then debauched in the interests of political masters controlling the purse strings. Towards the end of his life, Schneider was promoting a new form called \u201csystem science\u201d, explaining: \u201cClimate science is not like test tube science \u2026 we do not falsify by single experiments. We falsify on the basis of accumulated numbers of papers and numbers of bits of information.\u201d And so we witness the birth of \u2018consensus\u2019 to promote the unproven idea that humans control the climate thermostat \u2013 consensus, plus cancellation and defunding of unbelievers, fact check attacks, trusted messenger journalism, the emergence of mass death cult movements, etc etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris Morrison is<\/em> the<\/em> Daily Sceptic\u2019s<\/em> Environment Editor.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The German physics professor Dieter Schildknecht\u00a0notes\u00a0that atmospheric increases of CO2\u00a0past 300 ppm \u201ccannot lead to an appreciably stronger absorption of radiation, and consequently cannot affect the Earth\u2019s climate<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":255448,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819140,691818076,691819226,691818491,691818154],"class_list":{"0":"post-255443","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-science","9":"tag-co2","10":"tag-jeremy-nieboer","11":"tag-nasa","12":"tag-net-zero","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0065d49eac82cf3a3f8bb551bc8fb3009e.jpg?fit=1600%2C1600&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-14s3","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":314187,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=314187","url_meta":{"origin":255443,"position":0},"title":"For 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Rather, they contradict it.\u201d\u00a0 \u2013\u00a0Koutsoyiannis, 2024","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO2)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO2)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0OSC_Microbio_08_07_CCycle.jpg?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0OSC_Microbio_08_07_CCycle.jpg?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0OSC_Microbio_08_07_CCycle.jpg?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0OSC_Microbio_08_07_CCycle.jpg?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0OSC_Microbio_08_07_CCycle.jpg?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":326393,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=326393","url_meta":{"origin":255443,"position":3},"title":"Water Vapor Absorbs 84 Times More Radiation Than CO2 \u2026 Clouds Drove 89% Of 1982-2018 Warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/05\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cCO2 is only present in the atmosphere in trace amounts (0.04%) and lacks sufficient enthalpy to have any measurable effect on the atmosphere\u2019s temperature.\u201d \u2013 Nelson and Nelson, 2024","rel":"","context":"In \"CH4 (methane)\"","block_context":{"text":"CH4 (methane)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ch4-methane-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-clouds-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-clouds-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-clouds-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-clouds-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-clouds-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":340004,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=340004","url_meta":{"origin":255443,"position":4},"title":"The Quest for Climate\u2019s \u201cGolden Fleece\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A major climate parameter called \u201cclimate sensitivity\u201d has been the subject of scientific inquiry for literally hundreds of years. This parameter, basically, is\u00a0the amount of global temperature increase caused by a doubling of atmospheric CO2.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO2)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO2)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/06647625-2faae03a-8a3f-4b33-9f90-9f8cf2d5c60e.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/06647625-2faae03a-8a3f-4b33-9f90-9f8cf2d5c60e.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/06647625-2faae03a-8a3f-4b33-9f90-9f8cf2d5c60e.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/06647625-2faae03a-8a3f-4b33-9f90-9f8cf2d5c60e.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/06647625-2faae03a-8a3f-4b33-9f90-9f8cf2d5c60e.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":397200,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=397200","url_meta":{"origin":255443,"position":5},"title":"Another Study Affirms Anthropogenic CO2 Does Not Drive Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Utilizing AI\u2019s evidence-streamlining capabilities, a\u00a0new study\u00a0(with \u201cGrok\u201d literally positioned as the lead author) summarizes a few of the key counterpoints undermining the CO2-drives-climate narrative.","rel":"","context":"In \"Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)\"","block_context":{"text":"Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=anthropogenic-global-warming-agw"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQNQjjXjEchEt8PH6BUA5CzyQwvjuBh7BLKw7e3mxeI-BXCg02t4Ebxu13GaLV187gsAp8zLOY0pbktHwuik-A3hoo0xvh-w-V_BGN7WwCd_0T56WyFGWRjqdXhlEC_5cLfZQS7JnW5ZVPo0oLrFO2IREMsXlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQNQjjXjEchEt8PH6BUA5CzyQwvjuBh7BLKw7e3mxeI-BXCg02t4Ebxu13GaLV187gsAp8zLOY0pbktHwuik-A3hoo0xvh-w-V_BGN7WwCd_0T56WyFGWRjqdXhlEC_5cLfZQS7JnW5ZVPo0oLrFO2IREMsXlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQNQjjXjEchEt8PH6BUA5CzyQwvjuBh7BLKw7e3mxeI-BXCg02t4Ebxu13GaLV187gsAp8zLOY0pbktHwuik-A3hoo0xvh-w-V_BGN7WwCd_0T56WyFGWRjqdXhlEC_5cLfZQS7JnW5ZVPo0oLrFO2IREMsXlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQNQjjXjEchEt8PH6BUA5CzyQwvjuBh7BLKw7e3mxeI-BXCg02t4Ebxu13GaLV187gsAp8zLOY0pbktHwuik-A3hoo0xvh-w-V_BGN7WwCd_0T56WyFGWRjqdXhlEC_5cLfZQS7JnW5ZVPo0oLrFO2IREMsXlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQNQjjXjEchEt8PH6BUA5CzyQwvjuBh7BLKw7e3mxeI-BXCg02t4Ebxu13GaLV187gsAp8zLOY0pbktHwuik-A3hoo0xvh-w-V_BGN7WwCd_0T56WyFGWRjqdXhlEC_5cLfZQS7JnW5ZVPo0oLrFO2IREMsXlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/255443","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=255443"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/255443\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":255450,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/255443\/revisions\/255450"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/255448"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=255443"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=255443"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=255443"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}