{"id":254592,"date":"2023-04-25T14:32:11","date_gmt":"2023-04-25T12:32:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=254592"},"modified":"2023-04-25T14:32:14","modified_gmt":"2023-04-25T12:32:14","slug":"solar-variability-linked-to-climate-changeco2-not-the-primary-driver-for-nearly-all-of-earths-history","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=254592","title":{"rendered":"Solar Variability Linked To Climate Change\u2026CO2 Not \u2018The Primary Driver For Nearly All Of Earth\u2019s History\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From NoTricksZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a>\u00a0on\u00a0<\/em>24. April 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A new study exposes the uncertainty in solar activity reconstructions, but suggests solar models explain climate changes far better than atmospheric CO2 concentrations.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Proxy model estimates of the impact of solar variability on climate are highly uncertain. For example, estimations of the increase in solar irradiance over the last 400 years range anywhere from 0.75 W\/m\u00b2 to 6.3 W\/m\u00b2 (Scafetta and Bianchini, 2023<\/a><\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2217414<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even satellite<\/em> measurements of recent solar irradiance changes are controversial and conflicting. One composite (ACRIM) shows an increase in solar activity from 1980 to 2000, whereas another (PMOD) depicts a decrease. If even modern-day measurements of solar activity contradict each other, then we cannot assume the estimations of past variations from proxies are any more accurate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, the Northern Hemisphere proxy temperature record (shown in black in the image below, extended to 1999) has been linked to the periodicity of an interplanetary solar activity model devised by Dr. Nicola Scafetta and others. Notice the proxy temperature reconstruction depicts nearly all of the warming in the last 400 years occurring prior to 1950.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Image Source:\u00a0Scafetta and Bianchini, 2023<\/a><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, there is almost no link between CO2 and temperature that could lead to the conclusion CO2 is a driver of climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CO2 changes lag behind temperature changes by hundreds of years in paleoclimate reconstructions, and CO2 variations \u201csignificantly depend on the surface temperature of the oceans.\u201d If the CO2 variations are dependent upon temperature variations, the CO2 cannot be the driver of temperature variations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt is worth noting that the link between atmospheric CO2 content and global temperature has been fairly poor throughout the last 600 million years [2,22,23]. CO2 concentration, for example, has also lagged for centuries behind temperatures during deglaciation and glaciation periods, as occurred during the last 420,000 years, as shown in the Vostok ice core record [24]; although, if the data are processed in some way and some specific places are analyzed, the two variables appears much more tightly coupled [20,25]. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hence,\u00a0carbon dioxide cannot have typically been the primary driver of climate changes for nearly all of Earth\u2019s history<\/mark><\/strong>, but rather, it worked as one of the climate (positive) feedback mechanisms in response to solar, astronomical, orbital, and other natural forcings, although it was likely less important than water vapor and clouds. In fact, the atmospheric CO2 concentration significantly depends on the surface temperature of the oceans and on the status of the biosphere, although it might also be suddenly altered by volcanic activity.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
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<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new study exposes the uncertainty in solar activity reconstructions, but suggests solar models explain climate changes far better than atmospheric CO2 concentrations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":254595,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818753,691818076,691819031],"class_list":["post-254592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-carbon-dioxide-emissions","tag-co2","tag-solar-and-climate-oscillations","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0CO2-Vert.jpg?fit=1500%2C1000&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-14ek","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":369691,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=369691","url_meta":{"origin":254592,"position":0},"title":"Celestial Driver for Middle Miocene Cooling?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/13\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Approximately 34 million years ago (mya), during the Early Oligocene Epoch, the Earth entered its current \u201cicehouse\u201d climate mode, with ice sheets covering Antarctica. After warming up again towards the end of the Oligocene, Earth\u2019s climate began a long cooling trend, punctuated by a brief warm period during the Late\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atmosphere\"","block_context":{"text":"Atmosphere","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atmosphere"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Screenshot-2025-03-13-084751.png?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Screenshot-2025-03-13-084751.png?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Screenshot-2025-03-13-084751.png?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Screenshot-2025-03-13-084751.png?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Screenshot-2025-03-13-084751.png?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":282088,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282088","url_meta":{"origin":254592,"position":1},"title":"New Studies: Selection Bias In Datasets Advances A False Narrative The Sun Has No Climate Impact","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From NoTricksZone By\u00a0Kenneth Richard\u00a0on\u00a05. October 2023 Solar forcing may have a 4 to 7 times greater effect on climate change than current climate models indicate, which may mean modern climate change is predominantly natural rather than anthropogenic. Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) attribution may be significantly dependent on the choice of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)\"","block_context":{"text":"Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=anthropogenic-global-warming-agw"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0solar-activity-1508943534TmR.jpg?fit=1200%2C944&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0solar-activity-1508943534TmR.jpg?fit=1200%2C944&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0solar-activity-1508943534TmR.jpg?fit=1200%2C944&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0solar-activity-1508943534TmR.jpg?fit=1200%2C944&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0solar-activity-1508943534TmR.jpg?fit=1200%2C944&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":350328,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=350328","url_meta":{"origin":254592,"position":2},"title":"Natural Climate Change Factors","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cConsensus\u201d scientists do not believe that solar variability, internal climate variability (in this model simplified to the ~67-year stadium wave), or volcanism influence net global warming or climate change since 1750, yet considerable evidence exists that these factors have an impact. 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By Andy May In my\u00a0previous post\u00a0on multiple regression of known solar cycles versus HadCRUT5, I simply threw the solar cycles, ENSO, and sunspots into the regression blender and compared the result to various models that included CO2. Before reading this post, it is a good\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0sub4_hero.jpg?fit=1200%2C531&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0sub4_hero.jpg?fit=1200%2C531&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0sub4_hero.jpg?fit=1200%2C531&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0sub4_hero.jpg?fit=1200%2C531&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0sub4_hero.jpg?fit=1200%2C531&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":265395,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=265395","url_meta":{"origin":254592,"position":4},"title":"Scientists: Cosmic Ray-Cloud Connection Explains Million-Year Climate Changes Far Better Than CO2","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Per a\u00a0new study, million-year variations in cosmic rays (CR) modulating cloud cover, which, in turn, drives variations in incident solar radiation on short- and long-term timescales, is the dominant cause of million-year climate variations, explaining all 7 Ice Age epochs over the Phanerozoic.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-87.png?fit=1200%2C998&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-87.png?fit=1200%2C998&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-87.png?fit=1200%2C998&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-87.png?fit=1200%2C998&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-87.png?fit=1200%2C998&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":403556,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=403556","url_meta":{"origin":254592,"position":5},"title":"Sun and Cosmic Rays Drive Climate, Not CO2, Says Astrophysicist","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/20\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cClimate science is not normal science,\u201d Danish astrophysicist Dr Henrik Svensmark says. \u201cIt's a bad career move to go against the idea that CO2 is the only driver of climate change,\u201d he notes. In other words, to say that important causes of climate change might lie elsewhere means losing your\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"astrophysicist Nir Shaviv\"","block_context":{"text":"astrophysicist Nir Shaviv","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=astrophysicist-nir-shaviv"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQNQjjXjEchEt8PH6BUA5CzyQwvjuBh7BLKw7e3mxeI-BXCg02t4Ebxu13GaLV187gsAp8zLOY0pbktHwuik-A3hoo0xvh-w-V_BGN7WwCd_0T56WyFGWRjqdXhlEC_5cLfZQS7JnW5ZVPo0oLrFO2IREMsXlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQNQjjXjEchEt8PH6BUA5CzyQwvjuBh7BLKw7e3mxeI-BXCg02t4Ebxu13GaLV187gsAp8zLOY0pbktHwuik-A3hoo0xvh-w-V_BGN7WwCd_0T56WyFGWRjqdXhlEC_5cLfZQS7JnW5ZVPo0oLrFO2IREMsXlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQNQjjXjEchEt8PH6BUA5CzyQwvjuBh7BLKw7e3mxeI-BXCg02t4Ebxu13GaLV187gsAp8zLOY0pbktHwuik-A3hoo0xvh-w-V_BGN7WwCd_0T56WyFGWRjqdXhlEC_5cLfZQS7JnW5ZVPo0oLrFO2IREMsXlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQNQjjXjEchEt8PH6BUA5CzyQwvjuBh7BLKw7e3mxeI-BXCg02t4Ebxu13GaLV187gsAp8zLOY0pbktHwuik-A3hoo0xvh-w-V_BGN7WwCd_0T56WyFGWRjqdXhlEC_5cLfZQS7JnW5ZVPo0oLrFO2IREMsXlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQNQjjXjEchEt8PH6BUA5CzyQwvjuBh7BLKw7e3mxeI-BXCg02t4Ebxu13GaLV187gsAp8zLOY0pbktHwuik-A3hoo0xvh-w-V_BGN7WwCd_0T56WyFGWRjqdXhlEC_5cLfZQS7JnW5ZVPo0oLrFO2IREMsXlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254592","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=254592"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254592\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":254600,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254592\/revisions\/254600"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/254595"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=254592"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=254592"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=254592"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}