{"id":254225,"date":"2023-04-23T12:36:43","date_gmt":"2023-04-23T10:36:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=254225"},"modified":"2023-04-23T12:36:46","modified_gmt":"2023-04-23T10:36:46","slug":"increased-wildfire-danger-over-the-western-u-s-from-wet-and-cold-conditions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=254225","title":{"rendered":"Increased Wildfire Danger over the Western U.S. from Wet and Cold Conditions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Cliff Mass Weather Blog<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is an enhanced potential for wildfires over the western U.S. this coming summer and early fall, but it is not due to warming and drying.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, just the opposite.   A cool, wet winter has created an increased wildfire threat by producing a bountiful volume of flammable grasses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A threat that extends from eastern Washington into southern California.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Eastern Washington Near Thorp, WA, July 2022<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When most people think of wildfires they usually refer to forest fires.  However, grass fires are just as important in the West, if not more so.  Furthermore, burning grass plays an important role in many forest fires. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many of the most damaging fires in the western U.S. have had a large grass contribution.\u00a0 For example, the eastern Washington town of Malden, which was destroyed in September 2020, and the 2018 Camp Fire around Paradise, CA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The distribution of seasonal grasses in the West is shown below (indicated by green colors).\u00a0 There is a LOT of grasslands across eastern WA and OR, and over central and southern California.\u00a0 And many of the forest areas have an understory that includes grasses and other seasonal vegetation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The western U.S. has a Mediterranean climate<\/strong>, with winter precipitation and dry summers (yes, this includes Washington State).   Precipitation during the winter encourages seasonal grass growth and is followed by a summer warm\/dry period, resulting in substantial flammable fuels by mid-summer.  All that is needed is an ignition source and strong winds, which result in rapid fire spread.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Research studies indicate that precipitation is most critical around November (which supports germination and early growth) and in March\/April (which provides moisture as the strengthening sun encourages rapid plant growth).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interestingly, western grasslands and rangeland have become much more flammable over time, as explosively flammable, non-native grasses such as cheatgrass have spread around the West.  This is NOT due to global warming.  And there are far more sources of ignition these days, including huge increases in electrical infrastructure and population at the urban\/wildland interface.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To get an intuitive idea of how important grass fires are, here are maps of historical fire locations for central CA.\u00a0 Lots of large fires away from the forested mountains.\u00a0 Importantly, extensive grass near and within forested slopes can play a major role in initiating and spreading wildfires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Numerous and extensive wildfires have also been found in grassland areas around eastern Washington State (see below).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Situation This Year<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The percent of normal precipitation during the present water year (from Oct 1 to now) is shown below. Most of California was wetter than normal as was southeast Oregon and the eastern slopes of the Cascades.\u00a0 Surprised that the Cascade easterly slopes were moist?\u00a0 Blame the easterly, offshore-directed flow that made the rest of the region dry!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Importantly, higher than normal precipitation has continued during the critical last month over California, Oregon, and yes, the eastern Cascade slopes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All this moisture has encouraged luxuriant grassland growth around the West.   <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do you want to see some proof?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Below are two NASA MODIS satellite images for southern California: the first is for today and the second is from two years ago (2022), also on April 21.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Look closely.<\/strong>\u00a0 A LOT more green today.\u00a0 \u00a0 When that stuff dries out….as it WILL dry out…. there is potential danger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But let us get more quantitative about the wildfire threat. <\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A wonderful USDA website called fuelcast.net uses precipitation and other data, manipulated using machine learning, to predict the dead fuel load (mainly dead grasses) later this summer (see below).\u00a0 \u00a0As noted by grassland\/range expert, Dr. Matt Reeves, when the standing dead fuel load gets to about 800 pounds per acre, the wildfire threat is substantial.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As evident below, substantial portions of eastern Washington, eastern Oregon and particularly California will reach that level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bottom line:\u00a0 there is a substantial grass\/rangeland wildfire threat this summer after the West dries out,\u00a0as it always does<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There is a lot of talk in the media and others that wildfires in the West are mainly the result of heating and drying due to global warming.\u00a0 \u00a0The truth is perhaps a bit more nuanced and complicated.\u00a0 Cool and wet winters and early spring can greatly increase wildfire threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

___________________-<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Northwest Weather Workshop agenda and information are\u00a0online<\/a>.\u00a0 If you want to attend you must register (on the website).\u00a0 \u00a0A few speaking slots are still open for those interested in presenting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is NOT due to global warming.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":254247,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818090,691818911,691818912,691818913],"class_list":{"0":"post-254225","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-warning","9":"tag-mediterranean-climate","10":"tag-nasa-modis","11":"tag-wildfires","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/01659288722_Wildfires-grow-in-western-United-States.webp?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-148p","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":228921,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=228921","url_meta":{"origin":254225,"position":0},"title":"The Great Wildfire Mystery and The Latest (Dry) Forecast","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/13\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Wildfire acreage has been low even though the summer has been warm and dry for most of the\u00a0region.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-459.png?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-459.png?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-459.png?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-459.png?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-459.png?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":277596,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=277596","url_meta":{"origin":254225,"position":1},"title":"Wrong, LA Times, There is No Evidence \u2018Climate Change Boosts Risk of Explosive Wildfire Growth in California\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"An article in\u00a0The Los Angeles Times\u00a0(LA Times)\u00a0published on September 4, 2023 makes the claim\u00a0that a study by a Berkeley think tank proves \u201cClimate change has ratcheted up the risk of explosive wildfire growth in California by 25%.\u201d This is false.","rel":"","context":"In \"California\"","block_context":{"text":"California","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=california"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0TEDSIXR5IRCAVCYBE7F5PNINAI.webp?fit=1024%2C641&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0TEDSIXR5IRCAVCYBE7F5PNINAI.webp?fit=1024%2C641&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0TEDSIXR5IRCAVCYBE7F5PNINAI.webp?fit=1024%2C641&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0TEDSIXR5IRCAVCYBE7F5PNINAI.webp?fit=1024%2C641&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":276501,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=276501","url_meta":{"origin":254225,"position":2},"title":"The Essential Ingredients of the Most Destructive Wildfires: Wind and Grass","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/31\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"But if one is interested in the wildfires that kill and injure the most people, or wildfires that do the most economic damage, forests and drought are\u00a0not\u00a0the key factors.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00hawaii-maui-willdfire.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00hawaii-maui-willdfire.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00hawaii-maui-willdfire.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00hawaii-maui-willdfire.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00hawaii-maui-willdfire.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":408952,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=408952","url_meta":{"origin":254225,"position":3},"title":"Wildfires Below Average Last Year\u2013Met Office Says Global Warming Has Made Them\u00a0Worse!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/18\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Met Office are no longer a serious, scientific organisation, but a political one:","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMF2RC5Jjji6Dch8PzY9wqxn3ftNQ_aF3yvJAIvmBTDh4pwINZnWSYWX8C_NV-wmkmLV7wy9TQFYmjMP5g8qHYDqbddPY38n64DIGhAT3j8F8Yc1p1AUYClmitVw-HUn9hQhjugba7wX8OJVoy_xC9OjBKQ-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMF2RC5Jjji6Dch8PzY9wqxn3ftNQ_aF3yvJAIvmBTDh4pwINZnWSYWX8C_NV-wmkmLV7wy9TQFYmjMP5g8qHYDqbddPY38n64DIGhAT3j8F8Yc1p1AUYClmitVw-HUn9hQhjugba7wX8OJVoy_xC9OjBKQ-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMF2RC5Jjji6Dch8PzY9wqxn3ftNQ_aF3yvJAIvmBTDh4pwINZnWSYWX8C_NV-wmkmLV7wy9TQFYmjMP5g8qHYDqbddPY38n64DIGhAT3j8F8Yc1p1AUYClmitVw-HUn9hQhjugba7wX8OJVoy_xC9OjBKQ-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMF2RC5Jjji6Dch8PzY9wqxn3ftNQ_aF3yvJAIvmBTDh4pwINZnWSYWX8C_NV-wmkmLV7wy9TQFYmjMP5g8qHYDqbddPY38n64DIGhAT3j8F8Yc1p1AUYClmitVw-HUn9hQhjugba7wX8OJVoy_xC9OjBKQ-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMF2RC5Jjji6Dch8PzY9wqxn3ftNQ_aF3yvJAIvmBTDh4pwINZnWSYWX8C_NV-wmkmLV7wy9TQFYmjMP5g8qHYDqbddPY38n64DIGhAT3j8F8Yc1p1AUYClmitVw-HUn9hQhjugba7wX8OJVoy_xC9OjBKQ-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":409613,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=409613","url_meta":{"origin":254225,"position":4},"title":"Rain causes wildfires \u2013 the climate change gospel\u00a0","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/22\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Met Office is determined to convince us of the immediate need to cut greenhouse gas emissions. As part of its campaign, it is now reporting that the California wildfires in January were caused by severe heatwaves, droughts and, er, heavy rain. Yes, really.","rel":"","context":"In \"California fires\"","block_context":{"text":"California fires","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=california-fires"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQNyTT3Nr0m6_WOQQnJbCa0GFQKWqd_ymU6L9zc5QOIcFfITLCY-Qw7DrggTbDGJpi_UysGHG8TO9DHxXf04yj69trhkOq1YkRCm6EfWIzIhLRFDu8oEcA2FmsHNBOI.jpeg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQNyTT3Nr0m6_WOQQnJbCa0GFQKWqd_ymU6L9zc5QOIcFfITLCY-Qw7DrggTbDGJpi_UysGHG8TO9DHxXf04yj69trhkOq1YkRCm6EfWIzIhLRFDu8oEcA2FmsHNBOI.jpeg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQNyTT3Nr0m6_WOQQnJbCa0GFQKWqd_ymU6L9zc5QOIcFfITLCY-Qw7DrggTbDGJpi_UysGHG8TO9DHxXf04yj69trhkOq1YkRCm6EfWIzIhLRFDu8oEcA2FmsHNBOI.jpeg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQNyTT3Nr0m6_WOQQnJbCa0GFQKWqd_ymU6L9zc5QOIcFfITLCY-Qw7DrggTbDGJpi_UysGHG8TO9DHxXf04yj69trhkOq1YkRCm6EfWIzIhLRFDu8oEcA2FmsHNBOI.jpeg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":258884,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=258884","url_meta":{"origin":254225,"position":5},"title":"CNN Publishes Blatantly False Claim About Wildfires \u2013 There\u2019s No Link to Fossil Fuels at All","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/24\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Data show no correlation between wildfire acreage burned and CO2 produced from the burning of fossil fuel products.","rel":"","context":"In \"CNN\"","block_context":{"text":"CNN","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=cnn"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00creek-fire-fresno-california-september-2020.jpg?fit=1200%2C776&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00creek-fire-fresno-california-september-2020.jpg?fit=1200%2C776&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00creek-fire-fresno-california-september-2020.jpg?fit=1200%2C776&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00creek-fire-fresno-california-september-2020.jpg?fit=1200%2C776&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00creek-fire-fresno-california-september-2020.jpg?fit=1200%2C776&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254225","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=254225"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254225\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":254249,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254225\/revisions\/254249"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/254247"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=254225"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=254225"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=254225"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}