{"id":253092,"date":"2023-04-15T21:14:25","date_gmt":"2023-04-15T19:14:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=253092"},"modified":"2023-04-15T21:14:34","modified_gmt":"2023-04-15T19:14:34","slug":"energy-doublethink-update-april-14-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=253092","title":{"rendered":"Energy Doublethink Update April 14, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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First from the Zero Carbon zealots at Resilience Record clean-power growth in 2023 to spark \u2018new era\u2019 of fossil fuel decline.<\/strong><\/a>  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The power sector<\/strong> is about to enter a \u201cnew era of falling fossil generation\u201d as coal, oil and gas are pushed out of the grid by a record expansion of wind and solar power,<\/strong> according to new analysis by climate thinktank Ember.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wind and solar<\/strong> power reached a record 12% of global electricity generation last year,<\/strong> according to Ember\u2019s global electricity review 2023. This drove up the overall share of low-carbon electricity to almost 40% of total generation.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

With even faster growth set to continue this year, Ember says 2022 is likely to mark\u00a0a \u201cturning point\u201d when global fossil fuel electricity generation peaked and began to fall.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The thinktank forecasts that, by the end of 2023, more than 100% of the growth in electricity demand will be covered by low-carbon sources.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts broadly agree that\u00a0global electricity generation needs to be completely decarbonised by 2040<\/strong>\u00a0if the world is to stay on track for its climate targets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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OTOH we have:<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

This month a\u00a02023 US Energy Outlook from EIA<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(Energy Information Agency).\u00a0 Excerpts in italics with my bolds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Our projected growth<\/strong> in associated natural gas production is mainly driven by three trends<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2666  Rising oil prices support increased production from unconventional oil formations<\/strong> with significant natural gas volumes.
\u2666  Many unconventional oil wells are aging,<\/strong> and as these wells age, they tend to produce a higher ratio of natural gas relative to oil.
\u2666  Associated natural gas resources are becoming more economical, driven in part by provisions in the IRA, which creates penalties for venting and flaring methane and encourages producers to capture more natural gas from oil formations.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We project that associated\u00a0natural gas production will increase<\/strong>\u00a0from 7.2 Tcf in 2025 to 8.8 Tcf in the United States by 2050 in the AEO2023 Reference case. In the AEO2023 High Oil Price case, associated natural gas production peaks at 13.6 Tcf in 2035, accounting for 30% of the total domestic natural gas supply. By contrast, in the AEO2023 Low Oil Price case, associated natural gas production falls to 4.2 Tcf by 2050.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Strong continuing international demand for petroleum and other liquids<\/strong> will sustain U.S. production above 2022 levels through 2050, according to most of the cases we examined in our Annual Energy Outlook 2023<\/em><\/a> (AEO2023). We project that the United States will continue to be an integral part of global oil markets and a significant source of supply in these cases, as increased exports of finished products support U.S. production.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In our AEO2023, we explore long-term energy trends in the United States and present an outlook for energy markets through 2050. We use different scenarios, or cases,<\/strong> to understand how varying assumptions about the future could affect energy trends. These cases include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n