{"id":253072,"date":"2023-04-15T20:46:30","date_gmt":"2023-04-15T18:46:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=253072"},"modified":"2023-04-15T20:46:33","modified_gmt":"2023-04-15T18:46:33","slug":"confirmed-climate-models-too-hot-to-trust","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=253072","title":{"rendered":"Confirmed: Climate Models Too Hot to Trust"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Clintel Presentation by John Christy\u00a0https:\/\/clintel.org\/new-presentation-by-john-christy-models-for-ar6-still-fail-to-reproduce-trends-in-tropical-troposphere\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ross McKitrick reports on a new study confirming the chart above.  His Financial Post article is The important climate study you won\u2019t hear about. <\/strong><\/a> Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study is\u00a0Mid-Tropospheric Layer Temperature Record Derived From Satellite Microwave Sounder Observations With Backward Merging Approach<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0by Cheng-Zhi Zou at JGR Atmospheres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Significance<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Ross McKitrick: <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the end the two (satellite) series were similar but RSS has consistently exhibited more warming than UAH.<\/strong> Then a little more than a decade ago,<\/strong> the group at NOAA headed by Zou produced a new data product called STAR<\/strong> (Satellite Applications and Research). They used the same underlying microwave retrievals but produced a temperature record showing much more warming than either UAH or RSS, as well as all the weather balloon records<\/strong>. It came close to validating the climate models, although in my paper with Christy we included the STAR data in the satellite average and the models still ran too hot. Nonetheless it was possible to point to the coolest of the models and compare them to the STAR data and find a match, which was a lifeline for those arguing that climate models are within the uncertainty range of the data.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Until now. In their new paper Zou and his co-authors rebuilt the STAR series based on a new empirical method for removing time-of-day observation drift and a more stable method of merging satellite records.\u00a0Now STAR agrees with the UAH series very closely \u2014 in fact it has a slightly smaller warming trend.<\/strong>\u00a0The old STAR series had a mid-troposphere warming trend of 0.16 degrees Celsius per decade, but it\u2019s\u00a0now 0.09 degrees per decade,<\/strong>\u00a0compared to 0.1 in UAH and 0.14 in RSS.\u00a0For the troposphere as a whole they estimate a warming trend of 0.14 C\/decade.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 14 Global mean Temperature Total Troposphere (TTT, TMT adjusted by TLS) time series (blue lines) and its smoothed time series (red lines). The locally weighted regression method (Cleveland, 1979) is used for the smoothing. Both TMT and TLS for TTT generation are from STAR V5.0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Until now. In their new paper Zou and his co-authors rebuilt the STAR series based on a new empirical method for removing time-of-day observation drift and a more stable method of merging satellite records.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":253078,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818153,691818397],"class_list":["post-253072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-models","tag-noaa","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0climate-models-74.jpeg?fit=1024%2C682&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-13PO","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":338497,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=338497","url_meta":{"origin":253072,"position":0},"title":"Technical 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their placement on the graph, without hiding those differences.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate model data\"","block_context":{"text":"climate model data","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-model-data"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0Screenshot-2024-02-10-205706.png?fit=1128%2C897&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0Screenshot-2024-02-10-205706.png?fit=1128%2C897&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0Screenshot-2024-02-10-205706.png?fit=1128%2C897&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0Screenshot-2024-02-10-205706.png?fit=1128%2C897&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, 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Take a moment to read that if you haven\u2019t, because this is a sequel. Both are about a new study in Science Magazine yclept\u00a0\u201cA 485-million-year history of Earth\u2019s surface temperature\u201d, paywalled, of course.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atmospheric CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"Atmospheric CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atmospheric-co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-24.-Mai-2025-20_11_24-4.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-24.-Mai-2025-20_11_24-4.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-24.-Mai-2025-20_11_24-4.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-24.-Mai-2025-20_11_24-4.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":371240,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=371240","url_meta":{"origin":253072,"position":3},"title":"How to stop being surprised by extreme weather? Stop making it about climate.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/21\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"From the\u00a0Weather is Not Climate unless we say it is\u00a0department and the University of Reading, comes this\u00a0press release\u00a0about an inane study that tries to link tree rings and severe weather, while ignoring\u00a0warning fatigue.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/00-extreme-weather.jpeg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/00-extreme-weather.jpeg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/00-extreme-weather.jpeg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/00-extreme-weather.jpeg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/00-extreme-weather.jpeg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":252720,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252720","url_meta":{"origin":253072,"position":4},"title":"NOAA Confirm UAH Tropospheric Temperature Trends","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/13\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The troposphere climate record has been heavily debated for two reasons. First, it\u2019s where climate models say the effect of warming due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) will be the strongest, especially in the mid-troposphere.","rel":"","context":"In \"NOAA\"","block_context":{"text":"NOAA","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=noaa"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00-thundercloud.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00-thundercloud.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00-thundercloud.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00-thundercloud.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00-thundercloud.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":404550,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=404550","url_meta":{"origin":253072,"position":5},"title":"Natural Selection of Bad Science. 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