{"id":252960,"date":"2023-04-15T10:37:57","date_gmt":"2023-04-15T08:37:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252960"},"modified":"2023-04-15T10:38:00","modified_gmt":"2023-04-15T08:38:00","slug":"if-global-warming-is-causing-more-homeruns-in-mlb-its-also-causing-more-strikeouts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252960","title":{"rendered":"If Global Warming Is Causing More Homeruns in MLB, It\u2019s Also Causing More Strikeouts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"542\" data-attachment-id=\"252974\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252974\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00kg5GEpi.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1024,768\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"00kg5GEpi\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00kg5GEpi.jpg?fit=723%2C542&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00kg5GEpi.jpg?resize=723%2C542&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252974\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00kg5GEpi.jpg?w=1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00kg5GEpi.jpg?resize=300%2C225&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00kg5GEpi.jpg?resize=768%2C576&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00kg5GEpi.jpg?resize=800%2C600&amp;ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00kg5GEpi.jpg?resize=400%2C300&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00kg5GEpi.jpg?resize=200%2C150&amp;ssl=1 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"http:\/\/Watts Up With That?\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Guest \u201cJust a bit outside! \u201d by David Middleton<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After reading&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2023\/04\/12\/note-to-ams-and-associated-press-there-is-no-evidence-proving-climate-change-causing-more-home-runs-in-major-league-baseball\/\">Anthony\u2019s excellent takedown<\/a>&nbsp;of the claim that climate change is causing more homeruns in Major League Baseball, one thing really stood out: The authors of the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/view\/journals\/bams\/aop\/BAMS-D-22-0235.1\/BAMS-D-22-0235.1.xml?tab_body=abstract-display\">BAMS paper<\/a>&nbsp;didn\u2019t know jack schist about baseball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here\u2019s the abstract of the BAMS paper:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Global warming, home runs, and the future of America\u2019s pastime<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Christopher W. Callahan, Nathaniel J. Dominy, Jeremy M. DeSilva, and Justin S. Mankin<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Online Publication: 07 Apr 2023<br>DOI: <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/BAMS-D-22-0235.1\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/BAMS-D-22-0235.1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Abstract<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Home runs in baseball\u2014fair balls hit out of the field of play\u2014have risen since 1980, driving strategic shifts in gameplay. Myriad factors likely account for these trends, with some speculating that global warming has contributed via a reduction in ballpark air density. Here we use observations from 100,000 Major League Baseball games and 220,000 individual batted balls to show that higher temperatures substantially increase home runs. We isolate human-caused warming with climate models, finding that &gt;500 home runs since 2010 are attributable to historical warming. Several hundred additional home runs per season are projected due to future warming. Adaptations such as building domes on stadiums or shifting day games to night games reduce temperature\u2019s effects on America\u2019s pastime. Our results highlight the myriad ways that a warmer planet will restructure our lives, livelihoods, and recreation, some quantifiable and easily adapted to, as shown here, many others, not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>*<\/sup>Corresponding author,&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:Christopher.W.Callahan.GR@dartmouth.edu\">Christopher.W.Callahan.GR@dartmouth.edu<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/view\/journals\/bams\/aop\/BAMS-D-22-0235.1\/BAMS-D-22-0235.1.xml?tab_body=abstract-display\">BAMS<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Their claim can easily be refuted with baseball statistics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Inside Baseball<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most of what follows deals with the intricacies of baseball and, more specifically, baseball statistics. If you are unfamiliar with the subject, and you ask nicely, I\u2019ll try to explain the terminology in the comments section. If I tried to explain it in the main body of the post, I\u2019d never finish writing it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019m fairly certain that Earl Nash isn\u2019t a climastrologist, but he had it figured out 10 years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/bosoxinjection.com\/\"><strong>Home<\/strong><\/a><strong>\/<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/bosoxinjection.com\/boston-red-sox-news\/\"><strong>Red Sox News<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pitching Mound History\u2013balance between pitchers and batters<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/images2.minutemediacdn.com\/image\/upload\/c_fill,w_50,ar_1:1,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto\/shape\/cover\/sport\/Earl-Nash-avatar-5c9674248c047b9b5810a5bfbcc4b13f.jpg?w=1110&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"earlnash\" title=\"earlnash\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/bosoxinjection.com\/author\/earlnash\/\">Earl Nash<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dec 13, 2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The last time MLB made a major rule change for the Pitchers\u2019 mound was 1969.&nbsp; In 1904 the height of the mound was limited to no&nbsp;<strong>more<\/strong>&nbsp;than15 inches higher than the level of the baselines and pitchers were prohibited from soiling a new ball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In reaction to the complete dominance of pitching over hitting in 1968, MLB attempted to recalibrate the balance to favor the hitters by lowering the mound 5 inches to a height of 10\u201d inches above baseline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This was one change that was part of a general policy to make the game more exciting for fans by increasing the number of hits and runs scored, which later led to the intrusion of the DH rule in 1976.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Media consultants told MLB that only purists enjoyed shutouts and close, low-scoring games\u2014<em>\u201cpitchers\u2019 matches\u201d<\/em>\u2014and that the majority of fans wanted to see more scoring and more HRs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When the Steroid Era arrived and Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were \u201cchasing the Babe,\u201d Commissioner Bud Selig promoted the race and, since it was creating more fan interest and revenues for MLB, he continued to turn a blind eye to the readily apparent used of steroids.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prior to the Steroid Scandal in MLB, most sudden changes in the delicate balance between the pitcher and the batter was attributed to \u201cjuiced\u201d baseballs, \u201ccorked\u201d bats, and the height of the mound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[\u2026]<a href=\"http:\/\/this%20was%20one%20change%20that%20was%20part%20of%20a%20general%20policy%20to%20make%20the%20game%20more%20exciting%20for%20fans%20by%20increasing%20the%20number%20of%20hits%20and%20runs%20scored%2C%20which%20later%20led%20to%20the%20intrusion%20of%20the%20dh%20rule%20in%201976.xn--%20%20media%20consultants%20told%20mlb%20that%20only%20purists%20enjoyed%20shutouts%20and%20close%2C%20low-scoring%20gamespitchers%20matchesand%20that%20the%20majority%20of%20fans%20wanted%20to%20see%20more%20scoring%20and%20more%20hrs-0r17msa39iiu9h.xn--%20%20when%20the%20steroid%20era%20arrived%20and%20mark%20mcgwire%20and%20sammy%20sosa%20were%20chasing%20the%20babe%2C%20commissioner%20bud%20selig%20promoted%20the%20race%20and%2C%20since%20it%20was%20creating%20more%20fan%20interest%20and%20revenues%20for%20mlb%2C%20he%20continued%20to%20turn%20a%20blind%20eye%20to%20the%20readily%20apparent%20used%20of%20steroids-0g85vjla.xn--%20%20prior%20to%20the%20steroid%20scandal%20in%20mlb%2C%20most%20sudden%20changes%20in%20the%20delicate%20balance%20between%20the%20pitcher%20and%20the%20batter%20was%20attributed%20to%20juiced%20baseballs%2C%20corked%20bats%2C%20and%20the%20height%20of%20the%20mound-gd19oya6wza.\/\">Red Sox News<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personally, I love a good pitchers\u2019 duel. I once had the pleasure of seeing Roger Clemens and Nolan Ryan in an awesome pitchers\u2019 duel at the old Arlington Stadium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/B5UUId6W2Qo?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ryan and the Rangers defeated Clemens and the Red Sox by a score of 2-1, on\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/boxes\/TEX\/TEX198904300.shtml\">Rafael Palmeiro\u2019s 2-run homer in the bottom of the 8th inning<\/a>.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Arlington_Stadium\">Arlington Stadium<\/a>\u00a0was a small ballpark. Even though we were sitting in the right field bleachers, the sound of their fastballs popping in the catchers\u2019 mitts was remarkable. Ryan struck out 11 Red Sox in 8 innings; while Clemens struck out 6 Rangers in 9 innings. The funny thing is that homeruns and strikeouts go together like baseball and hot dogs\u2026 Or like baseball and statistics for that matter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Stats<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For major league baseball statistics, my go-to website is&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/leagues\/majors\/bat.shtml\">baseball-reference.com<\/a>. For climate data, I relied on&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.woodfortrees.org\/plot\/hadcrut4gl\/mean:12\/compress:12\/from:1871\">Wood For Trees<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The number of homeruns per team-game has been steadily increasing since Cro-Magnon Man threw out the first pitch in 1871 and this has coincided with the warming depicted in HadCRUT4 NH and most other temperature anomaly records:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"524\" data-attachment-id=\"252963\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252963\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0HR-per-TG.webp?fit=768%2C557&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"768,557\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0HR-per-TG\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0HR-per-TG.webp?fit=723%2C524&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0HR-per-TG.webp?resize=723%2C524&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252963\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0HR-per-TG.webp?w=768&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0HR-per-TG.webp?resize=300%2C218&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">Figure 1. Homeruns per Team-Game (1871-2022)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Allegedly some of the increase in homerun frequency since 1962 is the result of warmer, less dense air converting some long flyballs into homeruns. OK\u2026 \u2018splain this then:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252965\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252965\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0SO-per-TG.webp?fit=720%2C522&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"720,522\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0SO-per-TG\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0SO-per-TG.webp?fit=720%2C522&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0SO-per-TG.webp?resize=723%2C524&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252965\" width=\"723\" height=\"524\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0SO-per-TG.webp?w=720&amp;ssl=1 720w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0SO-per-TG.webp?resize=300%2C218&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">Figure 2. Strikeouts per Team-Game (1871-2022)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The number of strikeouts per team-game has also increased along with the alleged rise in temperatures; while the ratio of strikeouts to homeruns has remained relatively flat since 1920.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252967\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252967\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0SO-per-HR-TG-1.webp?fit=720%2C522&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"720,522\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0SO-per-HR-TG-1\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0SO-per-HR-TG-1.webp?fit=720%2C522&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0SO-per-HR-TG-1.webp?resize=723%2C524&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252967\" width=\"723\" height=\"524\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0SO-per-HR-TG-1.webp?w=720&amp;ssl=1 720w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0SO-per-HR-TG-1.webp?resize=300%2C218&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">Figure 3. Strikeouts per Homerun (1920-2022)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Anyone who\u2019s ever been a serious baseball fan, knows that there is a strong tendency for power hitters to strikeout more frequently than contact hitters; although this is not a universal rule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">JUN. 25, 2019, AT&nbsp;3:18 PM<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">You Can\u2019t Have Home Runs Without Strikeouts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Literally so. The ratio between the two hasn\u2019t changed throughout history.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/contributors\/michael-salfino\/\">Michael Salfino<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Filed under&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/tag\/mlb\/\">MLB<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The defining characteristics of baseball in 2019 are the home run and the strikeout.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/leagues\/MLB\/bat.shtml\">Both are at all-time highs<\/a>&nbsp;as of Tuesday. Make no mistake, the two statistics are closely related \u2014 and have been throughout baseball history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This season, as of Tuesday, there are 6.4 strikeouts per homer. The average in the Live Ball Era, which began in 1920, is 6.5. So when adjusting homers in relation to strikeouts, 2019 is nearly a perfectly average year, ranking 45th out of the last 100 seasons in terms of most strikeouts per homer leaguewide. And note that just four of the top 20 seasons with the fewest strikeouts per homer have occurred&nbsp;<em>after<\/em>&nbsp;the Expansion Era began in 1961: 1961 (5.51 strikeouts per home run), 2000 (5.51), 1987 (5.62) and 1999 (5.62), according to Baseball-Reference.com.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[\u2026]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When will the feedback loop of strikeouts begetting homers end? Never, if we\u2019re to believe the sport\u2019s preeminent sage, Bill James, who&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.billjamesonline.com\/the_strikeout_pushpull_effect\/\">predicted these changes<\/a>&nbsp;many years ago. He referred to it as \u201cthe push\/pull effect.\u201d Baseball now knows that getting more strikeouts has come to define being a better pitcher. But decision-makers are well beyond the point in which they believe the best hitters strike out less. In fact, teams now seem to be acknowledging what James has long contended \u2014 \u201cstrikeout-prone hitters are slightly better.\u201d Simply put, hitters don\u2019t care a whit about whiffing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cSo you have upward push on the strikeout column from pitcher selection, but no downward push from batter selection,\u201d James wrote. \u201cThe result of this is that strikeouts go up over time.\u201d And, apparently, so do homers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Check out our latest&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2019-mlb-predictions\/?ex_cid=endlink\"><em>MLB predictions<\/em><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Michael Salfino is a freelance writer in New Jersey. His work can be found on The Athletic and the Wall Street Journal.&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/you-cant-have-home-runs-without-strikeouts\/\">FiveThirtyEight.com<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The full article is well worth reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From what I recall, Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight.com, and I shared the same gateway drug to statistics: Baseball, particularly&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/news\/sabermetrics-in-baseball-a-casual-fans-guide\">Bill James and Sabermetrics<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It stands to reason, that if climate change was converting long flyballs into homeruns, it would also be converting shallow fly balls into long flyballs and we would see an increase in the number of sacrifice flyouts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252969\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252969\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0SF-per-TG.webp?fit=720%2C522&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"720,522\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0SF-per-TG\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0SF-per-TG.webp?fit=720%2C522&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0SF-per-TG.webp?resize=723%2C524&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252969\" width=\"723\" height=\"524\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0SF-per-TG.webp?w=720&amp;ssl=1 720w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0SF-per-TG.webp?resize=300%2C218&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">Figure 4. Sacrifice Flyouts per Team-Game (1954-2022).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Looks like climate change is very selective in how it converts flyballs into homeruns. It must only be \u201cjuicing\u201d long flyballs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If climate change is causing more deep flyballs to sail over the fence, then the ratio of homeruns to flyballs (HR\/FB) should be increasing\u2026 Right? I could only locate HR\/FB data back to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/leagues\/majors\/1988-ratio-pitching.shtml\">1988<\/a>. This should be good enough, because that\u2019s the year that Al Gore and James Hansen invented Gorebal Warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It would appear that the HR\/FB ratio is not changing in a statistically meaningful manner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252970\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252970\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00HR-per-FB.webp?fit=720%2C522&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"720,522\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"00HR-per-FB\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00HR-per-FB.webp?fit=720%2C522&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00HR-per-FB.webp?resize=723%2C524&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252970\" width=\"723\" height=\"524\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00HR-per-FB.webp?w=720&amp;ssl=1 720w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00HR-per-FB.webp?resize=300%2C218&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">Figure 5. Homeruns per Flyball (1988-2022)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The historical increase in the rate of homeruns can clearly be explained by:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Changes in baseball rules designed to make \u201cthe game more exciting\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Improvements in physical conditioning, training and equipment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The gradual acceptance that an increase in strikeouts is a good tradeoff for more homeruns<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The claim that global warming is \u201cjuicing\u201d MLB homeruns would appear to be\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/IVP9WUGdgPg?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After reading\u00a0Anthony\u2019s excellent takedown\u00a0of the claim that climate change is causing more homeruns in Major League Baseball, one thing really stood out: The authors of the\u00a0BAMS paper\u00a0didn\u2019t know jack schist about baseball.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":252974,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818454,691818056,691818090,691818455,691818453,691818456],"class_list":["post-252960","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climastrologist","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-warning","tag-cro-magnon","tag-homeruns","tag-long-flyballs","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00kg5GEpi.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-13O0","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":252620,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252620","url_meta":{"origin":252960,"position":0},"title":"Climate Expert Claims  Climate Change Causes Home Runs","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/14\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Last week a new\u00a0study\u00a0claimed to have identified a causal relationship between climate change and home runs in Major League Baseball.","rel":"","context":"In \"baseball\"","block_context":{"text":"baseball","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=baseball"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00images2097-5c6d27a80ed84.jpg?fit=1024%2C683&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00images2097-5c6d27a80ed84.jpg?fit=1024%2C683&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00images2097-5c6d27a80ed84.jpg?fit=1024%2C683&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00images2097-5c6d27a80ed84.jpg?fit=1024%2C683&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":251912,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=251912","url_meta":{"origin":252960,"position":1},"title":"How Climate Reductionism is Itself Causing Bad Science . . .","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Great example of how climate reductionism is itself causing bad science . . .","rel":"","context":"In \"Bad Science\"","block_context":{"text":"Bad Science","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bad-science"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0home-run-clipart-14.jpg?fit=1200%2C942&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0home-run-clipart-14.jpg?fit=1200%2C942&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0home-run-clipart-14.jpg?fit=1200%2C942&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0home-run-clipart-14.jpg?fit=1200%2C942&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0home-run-clipart-14.jpg?fit=1200%2C942&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":252622,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252622","url_meta":{"origin":252960,"position":2},"title":"Wrong, Associated Press, There is No Evidence Proving \u2018Climate Change is Causing More Home Runs in Major League Baseball\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/13\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Clearly, many factors are at play in home run hitting trends in baseball.","rel":"","context":"In \"baseball\"","block_context":{"text":"baseball","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=baseball"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00HomerunHeroImage.jpg?fit=1200%2C714&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00HomerunHeroImage.jpg?fit=1200%2C714&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00HomerunHeroImage.jpg?fit=1200%2C714&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00HomerunHeroImage.jpg?fit=1200%2C714&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00HomerunHeroImage.jpg?fit=1200%2C714&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":259826,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=259826","url_meta":{"origin":252960,"position":3},"title":"Wrong, The Guardian, Climate Change Isn\u2019t Causing More Climbing Deaths on Mount Everest","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/31\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"An article in\u00a0The Guardian\u00a0claims that climate change is killing people on Mount Everest. This is a false. Climate change is not highly localized nor does it occur in a single year. Evidence suggests other factors are behind the recent increase in deaths on Mount Everest.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0where-is-mount-everest-568b305f3df78ccc1543f913.jpg?fit=1200%2C812&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0where-is-mount-everest-568b305f3df78ccc1543f913.jpg?fit=1200%2C812&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0where-is-mount-everest-568b305f3df78ccc1543f913.jpg?fit=1200%2C812&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0where-is-mount-everest-568b305f3df78ccc1543f913.jpg?fit=1200%2C812&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0where-is-mount-everest-568b305f3df78ccc1543f913.jpg?fit=1200%2C812&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":273704,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=273704","url_meta":{"origin":252960,"position":4},"title":"No, \u2018The Conversation,\u2019 Climate Change Isn\u2019t Increasing Earthquakes","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/15\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A story posted in The Conversation, and\u00a0distributed by MSN News, claims that climate change is influencing the number of earthquakes. Data shows this is false. The study was so limited in scope it isn\u2019t representative of climate change either by reach or time.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-624.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-624.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-624.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-624.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-624.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":275848,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=275848","url_meta":{"origin":252960,"position":5},"title":"Fauci declares lockdowns were \u2018absolutely justified\u2019 &#038; suggests they should be used again to force vaccinations \u2013 Also claims \u2018climate change\u2019 is \u2018playing a role\u2019 in causing virus outbreaks","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/27\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Fauci claims \u2018climate change\u2019 is \u2018playing a role\u2019 in causing virus outbreaks - Urges more climate treaties!","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0lockdown.jpg?fit=1200%2C710&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0lockdown.jpg?fit=1200%2C710&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0lockdown.jpg?fit=1200%2C710&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0lockdown.jpg?fit=1200%2C710&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0lockdown.jpg?fit=1200%2C710&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/252960","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=252960"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/252960\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":252976,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/252960\/revisions\/252976"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/252974"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=252960"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=252960"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=252960"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}