{"id":252773,"date":"2023-04-14T11:25:29","date_gmt":"2023-04-14T09:25:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252773"},"modified":"2023-04-14T11:25:32","modified_gmt":"2023-04-14T09:25:32","slug":"solar-max-might-arrive-early","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252773","title":{"rendered":"Solar Max Might Arrive Early"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Spaceweather.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By DR.TONY PHILLIPS<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

April 13: 2023: <\/strong>Solar Maximum is coming\u2013maybe this year. New research by a leading group of solar physicists predicts maximum sunspot activity in late 2023 or early 2024, a full year earlier than other forecasts<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is based on our work with the Termination Event,\u201d explains Scott McIntosh, lead author of a paper<\/a> describing the prediction, published in the January 2023 edition of Frontiers in Astronomy<\/em> and Space Sciences<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Above: The red curve shows McIntosh et al\u2019s new prediction of an early Solar Max.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The \u201eTermination Event\u201c is a relatively new concept<\/a> in solar physics. It is a period of time on the sun as short as one month when magnetic fields from one solar cycle abruptly die (they are \u201eterminated\u201c) allowing magnetic fields from the next solar cycle to take over. After a Termination Event, the new solar cycle skyrockets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

McIntosh and colleagues have studied termination events for many solar cycles, and they have discovered that its timing can predict the future<\/a>. \u201eOur latest work pinpoints the Termination Event between Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 25 at mid-Dec. 2021,\u201c explains McIntosh. \u201eThis tells us about the size and date of the next solar maximum.\u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to their paper, Solar Max is coming between late 2023 and mid 2024, with a peak total monthly sunspot number of 184\u00b163 (95% confidence). This means Solar Cycle 25 could be twice as strong as old Solar Cycle 24, which peaked back in 2014. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Above: The sun\u2019s polar magnetic field (red=N, blue=S) is weakening and will soon flip<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their forecast jibes with another big event now underway. The sun\u2019s global magnetic field is about to flip. This happens near the peak of every solar cycle. Magnetic fields near the sun\u2019s poles weaken, change sign, and start growing again in the opposite direction. It\u2019s like taking a bar magnet from your refrigerator and flipping it upside down\u2013except this bar magnet is as big as a star.

Measurements from Stanford\u2019s Wilcox Solar Observatory (pictured above) confirm that the weakening is underway now, with polar magnetic fields probably crossing zero in no more than a few months. \u201eHistorically the zero crossing precedes actual sunspot number maximum by 6 to 12 months,\u201c says McIntosh, \u201eso this is in accord with our prediction of an early Solar Max.\u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This forecast is about to be tested, with confirmation as little as 6 to 12 months away. Stay tuned for Solar Max.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This story was brought to you by\u00a0Spaceweather.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Solar Maximum is coming\u2013maybe this year. New research by a leading group of solar physicists predicts maximum sunspot activity in late 2023 or early 2024, a full year earlier than\u00a0other forecasts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":252781,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818422,691818423],"class_list":{"0":"post-252773","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-polar-magnetic-fields","9":"tag-solar-maximum","11":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00solar-minimum-solar-maximum-comparison.jpg?fit=1920%2C1080&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-13KZ","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":195261,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=195261","url_meta":{"origin":252773,"position":0},"title":"Experts Adrift: Solar Cycle 25 already twice as active as expected","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/04\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"There\u2019s an electromagnetic ball of fire that is 1.3 million times the size of Earth and just 8 minutes away by photon, and we really have no idea what\u2019s going there. 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The\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/international-sunspot-nu.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/international-sunspot-nu.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/international-sunspot-nu.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/international-sunspot-nu.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/international-sunspot-nu.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":366551,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=366551","url_meta":{"origin":252773,"position":1},"title":"Sun Rules Earth\u00a0Climate","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Today we\u2019re talking again about\u00a0Grand solar minimum, but I also speak about a little bit of solar radiation and verification of the new solar\u00a0activity index we discovered with the existing one which is derived by average\u00a0Sunspot number.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-17-145119.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-17-145119.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-17-145119.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-17-145119.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-17-145119.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":377894,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377894","url_meta":{"origin":252773,"position":2},"title":"The Sun\u2019s Little-Known 100-year \u201cGleissberg Cycle\u201d is Waking Up","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Via\u00a0SpaceWeather.com\u00a0You\u2019ve heard of the 11-year sunspot cycle. 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