{"id":252691,"date":"2023-04-13T19:22:08","date_gmt":"2023-04-13T17:22:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252691"},"modified":"2023-04-13T19:22:11","modified_gmt":"2023-04-13T17:22:11","slug":"un-secretary-general-wrong-to-blame-climate-change-for-somalian-suffering","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252691","title":{"rendered":"UN Secretary-General Wrong to Blame Climate Change for Somalian Suffering"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Screenshot of Somalia from Google Maps.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres recently gave a speech in Somalia in which he claimed Somalia is suffering from the impacts of climate change disproportionately, specifically with regard to crop production amid an ongoing regional drought. This is false. Somalia is not suffering famine and crop failures primarily due to drought. Social and political instability is a much more likely culprit, especially since Somalia\u2019s current drought is not unprecedented, and neighboring countries also under drought conditions are have not experienced similar crop declines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A transcript of the speech is available, here<\/a>, where Guterres explains his commitment to raising aid money for Somalia to address their allegedly climate-driven crop failures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMy last visit to Somalia in 2017 was during a large-scale humanitarian operation to prevent famine,\u201d Guterres said. \u201cToday, the situation is once again alarming. Climate change is causing chaos, Somalia has experienced five consecutive poor rainy seasons, and this is unprecedented.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate change is not \u201ccausing chaos\u201d in Somalia, nor is the recent drought unprecedented.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As pointed out by Climate Realism<\/em> in \u201cNo, CBS News, Drought in Somalia is Not Being Driven by Climate Change,\u201d<\/a> the Horn of Africa is prone to flip-flopping weather patterns of aridity and monsoon rains. Paleo data from West Africa shows that the region has always suffered these conditions, most notably mega-droughts<\/a>, like those that occurred between 1400 and 1750, long before humans began burning fossil fuels in abundance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, recent news<\/a> about the drought is calling it the \u201cworst in 40 years,\u201d indicating similar droughts occurred as recently as 40 years ago, if not since.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evidence suggests internal conflict and political corruption is undermining Somali crop production. Neighboring Ethiopia and Kenya have also suffered from the same drought cycles as Somalia, yet their crop production has increased over time, compared to the ragged decline of Somalian crops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bananas are one of Somalia\u2019s top commercial crops. Using production data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization database, it is clear that something more than regional weather is causing Somalian agriculture to suffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at banana production (See figure below) neighboring Kenya and Ethiopia have seen gradual increases in production (Ethiopia has only been reporting data to the FAO since 1993), with Ethiopia setting a new production record in 2020. Kenya set a new record for banana production in 2021. By comparison Somalia\u2019s banana production has been in a protracted decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Concerning core cereal crops, since the U.N. has been maintaining records for each respective country:<\/p>\n\n\n\n