{"id":252678,"date":"2023-04-13T17:51:04","date_gmt":"2023-04-13T15:51:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252678"},"modified":"2023-04-13T17:51:07","modified_gmt":"2023-04-13T15:51:07","slug":"lazard-still-unreliable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252678","title":{"rendered":"Lazard: still unreliable"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Net Zero Watch<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Andrew Montford<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A year ago I was rather critical<\/a> of Lazard\u2019s annual report about the cost of power generation, in particular in relation to offshore wind. The 16th edition<\/a> of the report has just been published, and there are some interesting changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most egregious problem last time round was capex, and so it\u2019s good to see that Lazard have bumped up costs for the new edition, by 20% for their optimistic assumptions and by 40% for the pessimistic. That gives a new range of $3000-5000 per megawatt of capacity. The graph below shows this range (in pink) alongside build costs for recent UK offshore windfarms (converted to USD at 1.3). So they are now in the right ballpark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, elsewhere, things are not so plausible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For capacity factors, Lazard seem less sure of themselves. The pessimistic figure has fallen from 49% to 45%, while the optimistic one has risen, from 53% to 55%. The 2023 range of 45%-55% is, however, implausible. The output of offshore windfarms declines over their lives, and the levelized cost calculation should reflect that. Lazard\u2019s numbers are barely acceptable as estimates of first year values, let alone a lifetime average. This can be seen in Figure 2, which shows the Lazard range, again in pink, against the same set of recent UK offshore windfarms. The diamonds represent the average capacity factor to date, while the black tails represent the range of values into which the lifetime average is likely to fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s the same story for operational expenditure. Lazard\u2019s new range is $60-80,000 per megawatt of capacity per year. Recent UK windfarms have been spending at a rate of over $150,000 per megawatt (again converted from Sterling at a rate of 1.3), and, because opex increases over windfarm lifetimes, the lifetime average will be more like $200,000\/MW. This is shown in Figure 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Overall then, Lazard\u2019s figures remain highly implausible, and they remain a highly unreliable source for information about energy costs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The most egregious problem last time round was capex, and so it\u2019s good to see that Lazard have bumped up costs for the new edition, by 20% for their optimistic assumptions and by 40% for the pessimistic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":252688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818391,691818301,691818390],"class_list":{"0":"post-252678","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-lazard","9":"tag-offshore-wind","10":"tag-uk-offshore-windfarms","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/08MW-offshore-wind-turbine.jpg?fit=1200%2C818&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-13Js","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":194650,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=194650","url_meta":{"origin":252678,"position":0},"title":"On Lazard","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/04\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"This is the second of a pair of posts to try to set out for Robert Colville, of the Centre for Policy Studies, why wind power is such a catastrophic error. The first can be seen\u00a0here. Dear Robert In your\u00a0tweets\u00a0over the weekend, you pointed at some cost figures published by\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0FPcflJhXwAQY0gA.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":258751,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=258751","url_meta":{"origin":252678,"position":1},"title":"The IEA\u2019s comedy data","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From time to time, I take a look at other people\u2019s estimates of the levelised costs of renewable power, particularly offshore wind. The merchant bank Lazard has been\u00a0a source of particular amusement, their figures being so far divorced from reality as to be entirely laughable.","rel":"","context":"In \"IEA\"","block_context":{"text":"IEA","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=iea"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0WhatsApp-Image-2023-05-23-at-09.59.20.jpg?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0WhatsApp-Image-2023-05-23-at-09.59.20.jpg?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0WhatsApp-Image-2023-05-23-at-09.59.20.jpg?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0WhatsApp-Image-2023-05-23-at-09.59.20.jpg?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0WhatsApp-Image-2023-05-23-at-09.59.20.jpg?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":292010,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292010","url_meta":{"origin":252678,"position":2},"title":"Climate Advocacy: Incompetence Versus Intentional Fraud — Lazard Edition","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Or do they really know that, and they are just hoping to sell a few hundreds of billions of dollars worth of wind turbines and solar panels before the stupid politicians and investors figure out the scam?","rel":"","context":"In \"cost of energy\"","block_context":{"text":"cost of energy","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=cost-of-energy"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-08-23T133243.948.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-08-23T133243.948.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-08-23T133243.948.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OIG-2023-08-23T133243.948.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":260510,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=260510","url_meta":{"origin":252678,"position":3},"title":"The Actual Levelized Cost Of Energy","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The LCOE estimates the total capital, operations, and maintenance costs for new electric power plants coming into service. People use the Lazard LCOE all the time to claim that renewable electricity sources are now cheaper than fossil fuel electricity.","rel":"","context":"In \"Levelized Cost Of Energy\"","block_context":{"text":"Levelized Cost Of Energy","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=levelized-cost-of-energy"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/image-79.png?fit=1200%2C864&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/image-79.png?fit=1200%2C864&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/image-79.png?fit=1200%2C864&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/image-79.png?fit=1200%2C864&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, 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