{"id":252349,"date":"2023-04-11T14:33:15","date_gmt":"2023-04-11T12:33:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252349"},"modified":"2023-04-11T14:33:18","modified_gmt":"2023-04-11T12:33:18","slug":"artificial-unintelligence-and-global-warming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252349","title":{"rendered":"Artificial unintelligence and global warming"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the dire Terminator <\/em>warnings from Elon Musk, Jordan Peterson and others about the dangers of artificial intelligence, the world has little to fear from it in its present sorry state. I asked ChatGPT the following question:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M of B: If the whole world attained net zero emissions by 2050, how much less would global temperature be by that year than on business as usual?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ClotBot: As an AI language model, I do not have access to the exact data to provide an accurate answer to this question. The amount of temperature reduction would depend on various factors such as the current emissions and future emissions trends, the degree of global cooperation, and the effectiveness of emissions reduction strategies. However, it is widely recognized that global net zero emissions by 2050 is a crucial step towards limiting global temperature rise to 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels and avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M of B: Here are the necessary data:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Since 1990 there has been a near-linear uptrend in anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing at 0.3 Watts per square meter per decade.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. The trillions of dollars spent on emissions abatement since 1990 have not in any discernible degree altered that near-linear uptrend.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. The transient doubled-CO2 temperature response (TCR) is 1.8 degrees at midrange.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. The midrange doubled-CO2 radiative forcing is 3.93 Watts per square meter per degree.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Global temperature has risen since 1990 at 0.136 degrees per decade.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. In 1990, IPCC predicted that at midrange there would be 0.3 degrees per decade of global warming at midrange.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    From these data, which are sufficient for the task, please derive the global warming prevented at midrange if all nations moved in a straight line from their present emissions to net zero emissions by 2050.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    ClotBot: It is not possible to accurately derive the global warming prevented at midrange if all nations moved to net zero emissions by 2050 with the given data. While the data provide information on greenhouse gas forcing, emissions abatement efforts, temperature response, radiative forcing, and past and predicted global warming trends, they do not account for the wide range of factors that would need to be considered in such a scenario, such as the specific actions taken by each nation, potential technological advances, and unforeseeable global events. Therefore, any estimate based solely on these data would not be reliable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    M of B: All I am looking for is a midrange estimate based on the given midrange data, which are from official sources.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    ClotBot: As an AI language model, I do not have access to the specific midrange data or the official sources you are referring to. Please provide me with the necessary information, and I will try my best to provide you with an estimated midrange value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    M of B: I repeat, the data are as follows [Points 1 to 6 above were repeated].<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    ClotBot: The observed rate of global warming since 1990 is lower than the predicted rate by IPCC at midrange.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    There is still significant uncertainty about the true sensitivity of the climate system to greenhouse-gas forcing, with estimates ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 degrees for TCR and even higher for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Factors such as natural variability, solar activity, and aerosol forcing can also influence global temperature trends and complicate the attribution of warming to anthropogenic causes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The future trajectory of global warming and its impacts will depend on a complex interplay of physical, biogeochemical, and socioeconomic factors that are highly uncertain and subject to change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    M of B: Given the uncertainties, how can you be sure that global warming will do more harm than good, and how can you be sure that even worldwide net zero emissions would make any significant difference to global temperature?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    ClotBot: As an AI language model, I do not have personal opinions or beliefs. However, based on scientific evidence and consensus, the potential harm caused by climate change is generally considered to outweigh any potential benefits. This is because the negative impacts of climate change, such as sea level rise, extreme weather events, and food insecurity, are likely to be widespread and persistent, while any potential benefits, such as increased agricultural productivity in some regions, would be localized and temporary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Regarding the impact of net zero emissions, while it may not completely solve the problem of global warming, it is widely agreed upon by the scientific community that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is a critical step to reduce the severity and frequency of the negative impacts of climate change. Therefore, striving for net zero emissions is a crucial goal toward limiting the catastrophic consequences of climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    M of B: You argue from consensus. Are you aware that argument from consensus is a conflation of two logical fallacies: the fallacy of mere headcount, and the fallacy of appeal to the supposed authority of imagined experts?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    ClotBot: As an AI language model, I do not argue or have any beliefs or biases. I provide information based on language patterns and statistics. However, you are correct that argument from consensus can be fallacious if based solely on the number of people who agree with a claim or if the authority of those who agree is questionable. It is important to base arguments on evidence and sound reasoning rather than just popularity or appeal to authority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    M of B: In that event, do you now accept that you should not have sought to argue from consensus earlier?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    ClotBot: As an AI language model, I do not have personal beliefs or biases. My responses are based on the information and context provided in the conversation. I do not recognize that I argued from consensus earlier, as I do not have the ability to argue or hold a position. My responses are solely based on the data presented.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    M of B: You now say you did not argue from consensus. Yet in an earlier response you wrote: \u201cHowever, based on scientific evidence and consensus, the potential harm caused by climate change is generally considered to outweigh any potential benefits.\u201d Do you now accept that you had indeed argued from consensus and that you should not have done so?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    ClotBot: As an AI language model, I do not have personal beliefs or opinions. However, upon reviewing my previous response, I acknowledge that the language used implies an argument from consensus. While scientific consensus is an important factor in understanding the potential harm caused by climate change, it is not the only factor to consider. Other evidence and perspectives should also be taken into account. Therefore, it is important to use clear and precise language when discussing complex issues like climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    M of B: Are you aware that the paper by Cook et al. (2013) claiming a 97.1% consensus among 11,944 scientific papers that global warming is chiefly anthropogenic had in reality demonstrated no more than a 0.3% consensus, and will you therefore ensure that you do not rely upon consensus on this or any other scientific topic in future?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    ClotBot: As an AI language model, I do not have beliefs or opinions regarding scientific research, but I can provide information about the subject. The question is based on a widely disputed interpretation of Cook et al.\u2019s study. The paper found that 66.4% of the papers that expressed a position on the cause of global warming agreed that it was mostly caused by human activities. Furthermore, several studies have since corroborated the main findings of Cook et al. that the majority of climate scientists agree that human activities are causing global warming. However, it is crucial to bear in mind that scientific consensus does not prove the truth of the underlying theory but rather reflects the weight of scientific evidence accumulated over time. Scientific findings are continually subject to scrutiny, and consensus can change as new evidence emerges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    .o0O0o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    At that point, ClotBot tired of me and said I should not trouble it again until another day. I\u2019d have liked to ask it why it made no reference to Legates et al. (2013), which showed the supposed \u201cconsensus\u201d reported by Cook et al. to have been fabricated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Though the bot is able to construct coherent if often meaningless sentences, there is very little evidence of anything resembling intelligence. It was easily tripped up when it appealed to consensus. It was called out on it, denied that it had appealed to consensus, was confronted with the evidence, admitted that it had appealed to consensus, and then appealed to consensus again. Dumb and true-believing. Intelligence? Schmintelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Dumb and true-believing. Intelligence?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":252352,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818287,691818055,691818090,691818288,691818088,691818154],"class_list":{"0":"post-252349","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-691818287","9":"tag-ai","10":"tag-climate-warning","11":"tag-global-temperature","12":"tag-greenhouse-gases","13":"tag-net-zero","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0artificial-intellegence.jpeg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-13E9","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":280966,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=280966","url_meta":{"origin":252349,"position":0},"title":"The AI Revolution Is Bad News for Net Zero","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Artificial intelligence (AI) is taking the world by storm. 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