{"id":252109,"date":"2023-04-10T14:58:55","date_gmt":"2023-04-10T12:58:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252109"},"modified":"2023-04-10T14:58:58","modified_gmt":"2023-04-10T12:58:58","slug":"hurricane-impact-forecast-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252109","title":{"rendered":"Hurricane impact forecast 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" data-attachment-id=\"252160\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252160\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?fit=1280%2C720&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1280,720\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0-2023-atlantic-hurrican\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?fit=723%2C407&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?resize=723%2C407&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252160\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?resize=1024%2C576&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?resize=768%2C432&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?resize=1200%2C675&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfact.org\/\">CFACT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfact.org\/author\/joe-bastardi\/\">Joe Bastardi<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252158\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252158\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/02023-Bastardi-Hurricane-Forecast.png?fit=640%2C452&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,452\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"02023-Bastardi-Hurricane-Forecast\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/02023-Bastardi-Hurricane-Forecast.png?fit=640%2C452&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/02023-Bastardi-Hurricane-Forecast.png?resize=723%2C511&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252158\" width=\"723\" height=\"511\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/02023-Bastardi-Hurricane-Forecast.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/02023-Bastardi-Hurricane-Forecast.png?resize=300%2C212&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>April 6, 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The forecast numbers have been increased slightly from the February issuance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>El Ni\u00f1o will be a big influence, though whether it can overcome the warmth in the Atlantic is an open question.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Atlantic Basin<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Named Storms: 10-14<br>Hurricanes: 5-7<br>Major Hurricanes: 2-3<br>ACE: 70-110<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>U.S. Expected impacts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tropical storm conditions: 5<br>Hurricane conditions: 3<br>Major hurricane conditions: 1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Introduction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WeatherBell has been the pioneer in trying to alert the public as to&nbsp;<em>where<\/em>&nbsp;these storms are going to go. My long-standing idea is that numbers can be a red herring and even not valuable, as the biggest problem is where the storms wind up impacting. This year could be a classic example. It will feature a potentially top-10 El Ni\u00f1o versus a warm Atlantic. How much oxygen the El Ni\u00f1o can suck out of the room is not a normal slam dunk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I am confident of a below average season for Central America and the Caribbean. A lot of the African wave energy may be left in the form of storms to the east of 50\u00b0W that recurve. The fear is a feeding frenzy near our coasts with in-close development. As long as the Atlantic is warm that will always be a concern, but an El Ni\u00f1o is no cause for relaxation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We have taken the lead on creating a Power and Impact scale which is meant to quantify the overall power of storms better. This is done for two reasons. Firstly, the user will know more about the storm\u2019s nature. Secondly, it helps quantify a storm for historical comparisons. Donna, Charley, and Ian were all double-hitting Category 4s from Florida to the Carolinas, but in terms of Power and Impact, Donna was greater than Ian and much greater than Charley (as far as size). For a more detailed explanation, please visit&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.weatherbell.com\/power-and-impact-scale\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.weatherbell.com\/power-and-impact-scale<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Forecast Discussion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With the state of the oceans, we are in no-mans-land, awash in a sea of warmth. The widespread warmth distorts effects by spreading them out over a greater area. That will make this season a unique El Ni\u00f1o. El Ni\u00f1o is a part of this year\u2019s forecast and a big one, but in this case, its average effects may be mitigated. The Euro\u2019s tropical forecast is bizarre. It is above average in the Atlantic and East Pacific, but below normal in the West Pacific. The first and last forecast runs are completely opposite of what has happened in El Ni\u00f1os as strong as the model is forecasting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252111\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252111\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-263.png?fit=629%2C523&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"629,523\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-263\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-263.png?fit=629%2C523&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-263.png?resize=723%2C601&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252111\" width=\"723\" height=\"601\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-263.png?w=629&amp;ssl=1 629w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-263.png?resize=300%2C249&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Typically an El Ni\u00f1o is a slam-dunk-below-normal-activity forecast, by simply taking the blend of those events. There are two problems with that. First, the statistical models are not nearly as warm as the Euro and other dynamical models. They of course are based on statistics that incorporate years not as warm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252112\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252112\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-264.png?fit=640%2C465&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,465\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-264\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-264.png?fit=640%2C465&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-264.png?resize=723%2C525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252112\" width=\"723\" height=\"525\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-264.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-264.png?resize=300%2C218&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Obviously, a weaker El Ni\u00f1o means a different input. The aborted El Ni\u00f1o of 2017 is a prime example. Then again in 2017, the dynamical models were not off to the races:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252114\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252114\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-265.png?fit=640%2C495&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,495\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-265\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-265.png?fit=640%2C495&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-265.png?resize=723%2C560&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252114\" width=\"723\" height=\"560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-265.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-265.png?resize=300%2C232&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So now let\u2019s assume the models are right. The SSTs in those years looked like this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252115\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252115\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-266.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,496\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-266\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-266.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-266.png?resize=723%2C561&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252115\" width=\"723\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-266.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-266.png?resize=300%2C233&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, the Atlantic is much warmer this year:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252116\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252116\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-267.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,355\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-267\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-267.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-267.png?resize=723%2C401&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252116\" width=\"723\" height=\"401\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-267.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-267.png?resize=300%2C166&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I will discuss the implications below with comparisons for Sea Level Pressure and precipitation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now compare that to the active years in the Atlantic Basin:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252118\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252118\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-268.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,496\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-268\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-268.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-268.png?resize=723%2C560&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252118\" width=\"723\" height=\"560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-268.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-268.png?resize=300%2C233&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So while we are going to use the analogs, we understand their use is limited this time around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As I mentioned, the Euro forecast is strange. It has the West Pacific below normal and the East Pacific above, which is fine. However, it also has the Atlantic above normal. A look at the analog years reveals how bold that is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252119\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252119\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-269.png?fit=640%2C64&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,64\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-269\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-269.png?fit=640%2C64&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-269.png?resize=723%2C72&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252119\" width=\"723\" height=\"72\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-269.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-269.png?resize=300%2C30&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252120\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252120\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-270.png?fit=600%2C371&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"600,371\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-270\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-270.png?fit=600%2C371&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-270.png?resize=723%2C447&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252120\" width=\"723\" height=\"447\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-270.png?w=600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-270.png?resize=300%2C186&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252122\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252122\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-271.png?fit=640%2C69&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,69\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" 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data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-282\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-282.png?fit=640%2C396&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-282.png?resize=723%2C448&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252135\" width=\"723\" height=\"448\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-282.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-282.png?resize=300%2C186&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252136\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252136\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-283.png?fit=640%2C70&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,70\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-283\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-283.png?fit=640%2C70&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-283.png?resize=723%2C79&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252136\" width=\"723\" height=\"79\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-283.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-283.png?resize=300%2C33&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252138\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252138\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-284.png?fit=640%2C396&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,396\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-284\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-284.png?fit=640%2C396&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-284.png?resize=723%2C448&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252138\" width=\"723\" height=\"448\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-284.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-284.png?resize=300%2C186&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Those years would give us a bit under 8 storms per year, 3-4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane per year. The average ACE Index is near 50! Those are way, way under what we have at the top. The Euro is forecasting 15 total storms and 6.5 hurricanes, with an ACE index of 120. I read that as a lot of little storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now let\u2019s look at the precipitation patterns in the strong El Ni\u00f1o seasons:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252139\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252139\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-285.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,496\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-285\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-285.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-285.png?resize=723%2C560&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252139\" width=\"723\" height=\"560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-285.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-285.png?resize=300%2C233&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here is the Euro for the heart of the hurricane season (ASO):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252140\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252140\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-286.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,355\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-286\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-286.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-286.png?resize=723%2C401&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252140\" width=\"723\" height=\"401\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-286.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-286.png?resize=300%2C166&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Active seasons:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252142\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252142\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-287.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,496\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-287\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-287.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-287.png?resize=723%2C560&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252142\" width=\"723\" height=\"560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-287.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-287.png?resize=300%2C233&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We see striking similarities in the southwestern Caribbean, but the Atlantic Basin is shown to be a bit wetter than the average El Ni\u00f1o year. Certainly, it is closer to that than the active years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sea Level Presure in stong El Ni\u00f1os:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252143\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252143\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-288.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,496\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-288\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-288.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-288.png?resize=723%2C560&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252143\" width=\"723\" height=\"560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-288.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-288.png?resize=300%2C233&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Euro:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252144\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252144\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-289.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,355\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-289\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-289.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-289.png?resize=723%2C401&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252144\" width=\"723\" height=\"401\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-289.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-289.png?resize=300%2C166&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Active years:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252146\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252146\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-290.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,496\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-290\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-290.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-290.png?resize=723%2C561&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252146\" width=\"723\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-290.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-290.png?resize=300%2C233&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The trademark low pressure to the west of South America is there. This means stronger easterlies and wind sheer over the eastern Pacific. However, pressures over the Atlantic are shown to be near normal, which means the easterlies won\u2019t be as strong there. We don\u2019t get to where we are in the active years in the Atlantic Basin because of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and the Tropical Atlantic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 500 mb in El Ni\u00f1os:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252148\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252148\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-291.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,496\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-291\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-291.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-291.png?resize=723%2C561&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252148\" width=\"723\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-291.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-291.png?resize=300%2C233&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Euro:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252149\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252149\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-292.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,355\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-292\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-292.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-292.png?resize=723%2C401&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252149\" width=\"723\" height=\"401\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-292.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-292.png?resize=300%2C166&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Active seasons:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252150\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252150\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-293.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,496\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-293\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-293.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-293.png?resize=723%2C560&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252150\" width=\"723\" height=\"560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-293.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-293.png?resize=300%2C233&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Euro forecast is an antilog to the active seasons, though is not as far to the north. What is very strange is the positives all through Asia. That is the opposite of El Ni\u00f1o years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In addition, a look at the CFSv2 clearly shows a tendency for less shear around the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast, especially in the front part of the season. That means an early season storm or two can really get things started (1957 Audrey and 1972 Agnes for example).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">JJA:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252152\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252152\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-294.png?fit=530%2C330&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"530,330\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-294\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-294.png?fit=530%2C330&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-294.png?resize=723%2C450&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252152\" width=\"723\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-294.png?w=530&amp;ssl=1 530w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-294.png?resize=300%2C187&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">JAS:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252153\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252153\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-295.png?fit=542%2C330&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"542,330\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-295\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-295.png?fit=542%2C330&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-295.png?resize=723%2C440&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252153\" width=\"723\" height=\"440\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-295.png?w=542&amp;ssl=1 542w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-295.png?resize=300%2C183&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ASO:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252154\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252154\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-296.png?fit=518%2C280&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"518,280\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-296\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-296.png?fit=518%2C280&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-296.png?resize=723%2C390&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252154\" width=\"723\" height=\"390\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-296.png?w=518&amp;ssl=1 518w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-296.png?resize=300%2C162&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An active season like 2020 certainly has the opposite:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"252156\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=252156\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-297.png?fit=572%2C350&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"572,350\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-297\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-297.png?fit=572%2C350&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-297.png?resize=723%2C443&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252156\" width=\"723\" height=\"443\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-297.png?w=572&amp;ssl=1 572w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-297.png?resize=300%2C184&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This year we do have less to the north of the \u201cred zone\u201d that stands out so clearly in non-active years. Keep in mind this is the most active season on record, but the point is around the Gulf of Mexico and Florida there was less hostility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>West Pacific forecast<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We have had a 3-year period of very low typhoon activity (and landfalling activity). That should come to an end. The Euro likes the landfalls but with less than average ACE, which is baffling to me. For East Asian interests, the trend should be over. For climate interests, if you don\u2019t get an ACE bounceback to well above in this pattern, then I think the screaming and yelling about the tropics has got to stop. It becomes absurd. ACE Index is not increasing, for one, but the shutdown of the West Pacific over the last 3 years with no major above normal activity to counter it with this kind of El Ni\u00f1o would really be a nail in that coffin. I do think we will have some major landfalling typhoons this year, though, more so than in the last 3 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Verdict<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I hope I have laid out the parameters here in a way you can understand what we are looking at. I have written about the weakening of the Hadley Cell and dropping 400 mb humidities over the Main Development Regions of the world, a distortion of the pattern due to major warming away from the Tropics likely has a role in that. This year for the Atlantic Basin we will have an El Ni\u00f1o that I think can get to +1.5\u00b0C (the CFSv2, Canadian, and Euro are all at +2\u00b0C) but it is surrounded by global SSTs that are so warm that we have not seen anything like it, let alone an El Ni\u00f1o year. So modeling is trying to handle inputs that it may not be able to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My take is that the Atlantic is warm enough that the farther away from the Main Development Region the more the chance for development relative to normal. That means the U.S. is in an area close to it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Author<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"160\" width=\"160\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cfact.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Joe-Bastardi.jpg\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.cfact.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Joe-Bastardi.jpg?resize=160%2C160&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Joe Bastardi\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfact.org\/author\/joe-bastardi\/\">Joe Bastardi<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Joe Bastardi is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>He is the author of \u201cThe Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won\u2019t Hear From Al Gore \u2014 and Others\u201d which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>His new book The Weaponization of Weather in the Phony Climate war can be found here. phonyclimatewar.com<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>WeatherBell has been the pioneer in trying to alert the public as to\u00a0where\u00a0these storms are going to go.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":252160,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818233,691818234,691818232,691818200],"class_list":["post-252109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-691818233","tag-atlantic","tag-atlantic-hurricane","tag-el-nino","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?fit=1280%2C720&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-13Ah","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":259473,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=259473","url_meta":{"origin":252109,"position":0},"title":"NOAA predicts a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/28\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Hurricanes are only neat and exciting when they are happening someplace else to someone else.\u00a0 Up close, they are dangerous even for those well prepared.","rel":"","context":"In \"Hurricanes\"","block_context":{"text":"Hurricanes","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=hurricanes"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":446161,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446161","url_meta":{"origin":252109,"position":1},"title":"GOOD NEWS: NOAA predicts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/23\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 21, 2026, and it does call for a below-normal season.","rel":"","context":"In \"2026 Atlantic hurricane season\"","block_context":{"text":"2026 Atlantic hurricane season","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2026-atlantic-hurricane-season"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, 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\"forecast\"","block_context":{"text":"forecast","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=forecast"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":412307,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=412307","url_meta":{"origin":252109,"position":3},"title":"Hurricane Forecast Was Overly Alarmist (Again)\u2026Atlantic Season Ending Near Normal","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted\u00a0that an above average Atlantic hurricane season\u00a0for 2025.","rel":"","context":"In \"catastrophe prophets\"","block_context":{"text":"catastrophe 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