{"id":251292,"date":"2023-04-05T10:37:46","date_gmt":"2023-04-05T08:37:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=251292"},"modified":"2023-04-05T10:37:47","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T08:37:47","slug":"the-twelfth-first-climate-refugees","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=251292","title":{"rendered":"The Twelfth First Climate Refugees"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Near as I can tell, we\u2019re up to the twelfth first climate refugees. Here are the first through sixth first climate refugees<\/a>, and the seventh<\/a>, ninth<\/a>, and eleventh-tenth<\/a> first climate refugees. Where are the eighth first climate refugees? No clue, it\u2019s hard to keep track of them all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In any case, according to the UK rag The Guardian<\/em>, in an article entitled \u201c\u2018Losing your home is a massive thing\u2019: how the climate crisis came to Norfolk<\/a>\u201c, the people of Helmsby, Norfolk, are now official climate refugees. The sea is eroding the coastline around their houses. The Guardian says that it\u2019s evil sea level rise from global warming and unspecified (and imaginary) \u201cincreased storminess\u201d that are to blame for the problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just one little difficulty. The erosion has been going on for a long, long time. Here\u2019s a photo of 1993 versus 2003.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1. Helmsby, Norfolk, UK in 1993 (left) and 2003 (right). You can use the slider to compare the two photos in the\u00a0SOURCE<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So \u2026\u00a0just how much evil sea level rise has occurred in that 30-year period? Here\u2019s the tide gauge data from the nearest tide gauge station, Lowestoft, only about 15 miles (25 km) down the coast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 2. Title and caption says it all.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hmmm \u2026 2.56 mm per year, with no sign of the fabled \u201cacceleration\u201d in sea level rise. That rate for thirty years is a whopping three inches (77mm) of sea level rise since 1993. And we\u2019re supposed to believe 3 inches of sea level rise caused that erosion? Get real!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So how about the claimed \u201cincreased storminess\u201d? There\u2019s an interesting paper entitled \u201cNortheast Atlantic Storm Activity and Its Uncertainty from the Late Nineteenth to the Twenty-First Century<\/a>\u201c. The abstract says (emphasis mine):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

A multidecadal increasing trend in storm activity starting in the mid-1960s and lasting until the 1990s, whose high storminess levels are comparable to those found in the late nineteenth century, initiated debate over whether this would already be a sign of climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This study confirms that long-term storminess levels have returned to average values in recent years <\/em><\/strong>and that the multidecadal increase is part of an extended interdecadal oscillation.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

In other words, no, it\u2019s not increased storminess, because northeast Atlantic storminess hasn\u2019t increased. So what is the problem?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For once, The Guardian actually takes the daring step of looking beyond the climate hype, saying:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u2026 locals highlight other factors too: dredging sand from the seabed close to the coast, other sea defences disrupting the natural flow of sand along the coast to defenceless Hemsby, even the introduction of non-native species of marram grass, which bind the dunes less effectively than native marram. But most of all, every local blames the loss of homes on the authorities\u2019 refusal to provide hard sea defences, which protect most of this vulnerable coastline but cruelly stop for 1.3km beside Hemsby.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

To summarize: we know it\u2019s not the 3\u2033 of sea level rise. We know it\u2019s not \u201cincreased storminess\u201d. So the list above contains the likely reasons for coastal erosion in Hemsby.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And once again, the endless meme of \u201cclimate refugees\u201d is just more endless climate alarmism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given that, what can they do? Well, if I lived in Hemsby, I\u2019d be looking into companies like\u00a0Holmberg Technologies<\/a>\u00a0that specialize in working\u00a0with\u00a0<\/em>the ocean rather than\u00a0against\u00a0<\/em>the ocean to extend beaches and to erosion-proof shorelines. Here\u2019s one of Holmberg\u2019s jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Holmberg uses a very simple and inexpensive system. They lay tubes of reinforced geotextile fabric at right angles to the shore, from above high tide out into the deep. Then they pump concrete into the tubes. That\u2019s it. Here\u2019s the inventor, Dick Holmberg, with a single tube (red arrow).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

They lay two tubes side by side and pump in the concrete. These set up as two ovals side by side. After they set hard, a third tube is laid on top between the two and pumped full. Repeat at intervals along the beach you want to protect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Holmberg realized was that when the water slows down, suspended solids drop out. So he didn\u2019t have to fight the ocean. He didn\u2019t have to stop the ocean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He just needed to stub the ocean\u2019s toe a little, to slow the ocean down near the bottom. When it slows down, the sand and suspended solids drop out, and slowly, over time the beach extends further out from shore and the tubes will end up being nearly buried.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And it\u2019s an almost irreducibly cheap way to slow the bottom circulation. No forms or excavations are necessary. Nothing but geotextile tubes and concrete. How could it be cheaper? I think they\u2019ve achieved the ultimate basement low-cost for the purpose. They call it the \u201cUndercurrent Stabilizer\u201d. True. It does stabilize the undercurrent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s a project Holmberg did in Saudi Arabia. A seawall was failing. They ripped out the seawall. They put the geotextile tubes from the shore outwards and pumped them full of concrete as Undercurrent Stabilizers. They walked away. Here\u2019s the result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Finally, it\u2019s extensible. Over time the area between the groups of three geotextile tubes extending into the ocean at intervals along the beach fill in and will bury the tubes. Of course, the beach won\u2019t extend further out at that point, because there\u2019s nothing to slow the ocean down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So you lay a fourth tube on top of the existing triangle of concrete tubes and pump it full \u2026 this adds a new stumbling block to slow the ocean a bit. As a result, the beach starts extending further out, and the beat goes on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, contrast that to the usual solution, a sea wall. As the name suggests, rather than making the ocean stub its toe and slow a bit, a seawall looks to stop <\/em><\/strong>the ocean \u2026 in my experience as a long time seaman<\/a>, I wouldn\u2019t advise that \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And this brings up a more general point. It\u2019s far cheaper and far more certain to adapt to changes in the weather by mitigating its effects than it is to try to reconfigure the energy sources of the entire world and change most aspects of how we live in a vain attempt to control the weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So if I lived in Hemsby, I\u2019d be calling Holmberg \u2026 but hey, I was born yesterday, what do I know?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

And regarding my life? Well, I\u2019ve been driving from Nashville to the Carolina coast with my Gorgeous Ex-Fiancee. We\u2019ve been doing what we call \u201cpushing the Adventure Button\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So \u2026 who is my Gorgeous Ex-Fiancee? Here you go.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

You can read about her in my post Letters From Mexico To My Future Ex-Fiancee<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And what is the Adventure Button? It\u2019s on Google Maps. After you push \u201cStart\u201d on Google Maps on your phone, drag up the bottom part of the screen. Select \u201cSettings\u201d down at the very bottom, scroll down, and select \u201cAvoid Highways\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Then simply follow the directions \u2026 you\u2019ll see parts of the world you\u2019ve never imagined.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two days ago it led us through the hollows and the hills of Eastern Tennessee, past ancient stone houses and an Amish man with a peaceful face and a lovely smile driving his buggy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday, it included a tightly twisting downhill run along Mill Creek in North Carolina, with a memorial to a long-forgotten but no less lethal minor Civil War battlefield at the bottom. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, it\u2019ll take longer to get to where you\u2019re going \u2026 but on my planet, life is about the journey, not the goal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Give the Adventure Button a try, likely you\u2019ll never turn back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the hope that your life is full to the brim with adventures, I remain,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yr. Obt. Svt.,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PS<\/strong>\u2014you likely know the drill. To avoid misunderstandings, if you\u2019re commenting please quote the exact words<\/em><\/strong> you are discussing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hmmm \u2026 2.56 mm per year, with no sign of the fabled \u201cacceleration\u201d in sea level rise. That rate for thirty years is a whopping three inches (77mm) of sea level rise since 1993. And we\u2019re supposed to believe 3 inches of sea level rise caused that erosion? Get real!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":251306,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-251292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-172.png?fit=1024%2C684&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-13n6","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":243819,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=243819","url_meta":{"origin":251292,"position":0},"title":"The Nation Flounders on Miami Sea-Level Rise Story","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The story is not just false, it is laughably inept. 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I\u2019ve written about the latest one below. Here are the first through sixth first climate refugees, and the seventh, ninth, and eleventh-tenth first climate refugees. Where are the eighth first climate refugees? 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Nonsense. A new, first-ever global study of real-world data, not models, finds no evidence climate change accelerated sea level rise. This is a massive scientific scandal.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQPLxWd3JxuxXhMVJ013LgKGTcSn5gYyIk6tkvLOSTSQEJsSBTYCbGxcSf-aF48KH480FjjwmTLTdfTdaJdsOWgtW9IT4IwsKRdTdN09exQFzh21ywDamhGQA3kmER_3QjBmYDmjwBIxXB_KhSZe2A-wA7y-.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQPLxWd3JxuxXhMVJ013LgKGTcSn5gYyIk6tkvLOSTSQEJsSBTYCbGxcSf-aF48KH480FjjwmTLTdfTdaJdsOWgtW9IT4IwsKRdTdN09exQFzh21ywDamhGQA3kmER_3QjBmYDmjwBIxXB_KhSZe2A-wA7y-.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, 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\u2014 but the \u2018climate change\u2019 cult won\u2019t care","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Yet another much-predicted climate-change catastrophe turns out to be baseless:\u00a0Worldwide Sea levels are\u00a0not\u00a0rising\u00a0any faster than a century ago.","rel":"","context":"In \"1.5 millimeters per year\"","block_context":{"text":"1.5 millimeters per 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