{"id":249896,"date":"2023-03-27T13:27:56","date_gmt":"2023-03-27T11:27:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=249896"},"modified":"2023-03-27T13:28:05","modified_gmt":"2023-03-27T11:28:05","slug":"co2-fluxes-not-what-ipcc-telling-you","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=249896","title":{"rendered":"CO2 Fluxes Not What IPCC Telling You"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The latest rebuttal of IPCC CO2 hysteria comes from Peter Stallinga in his 2023 publication\u00a0Residence Time vs. Adjustment Time of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere.<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0 Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added comments and images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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1. Introduction<\/strong><\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

One of the major points in discussion of the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) scenario<\/strong> is the time the added carbon dioxide (CO2) stays in the atmosphere.<\/strong> In an extensive study, Solomon concluded that the residence time of carbon atoms in the atmosphere is of the order of 10 years [1], see Table 1. Such a short time would undermine the prime tenet of AGW,<\/strong> since a molecule of CO2  will not have time to contribute to any greenhouse effect before it disappears to sinks where it cannot do any thermal harm.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some claim that the residence time<\/strong> (the amount of time a molecule on average spends in the atmosphere before it disappears from it) is not relevant<\/strong> for this discussion; what matters is the adjustment time<\/strong> (or relaxation time or (re)-equilibration time), the time it takes for a new equilibrium to establish, the time constant seen in the observed transient, and, allegedly, these two are different.<\/strong> In a recent work, Cawley explains it<\/strong> as [3]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 natural fluxes into and out of the atmosphere are closely balanced<\/strong> and, hence<\/strong>, comparatively small anthropogenic fluxes can have a substantial effect<\/strong> on atmospheric concentrations.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the current work, we use these exact two concepts<\/strong>, with turnover time called residence time. We also focus on first-order systems mentioned here by the IPCC. We\u00a0discuss the difference<\/strong>\u00a0between residence time on the one hand, and adjustment time on the other hand, and\u00a0test the hypothesis that the adjustment time can be longer than the residence time<\/strong>\u00a0by mathematical methods. After having addressed this core point, we perform a calculation based on the available data to see how they fit.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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2. Residence Time and Adjustment Time (Methods, Data, Results and Analysis)<\/strong><\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n
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Figure 1. Two-box model of the carbon dioxide cycle. The top box represents the atmosphere, with a total carbon dioxide mass of 3403 Gt. Humans add 38 Gt per year to the system. Nature adds Fn+ and takes away Fn\u2212 to a sink represented by the bottom box. That sink has a total CO2 mass equal to S. The residence time in the atmosphere, \u03c4a is well known and estimated to be 5 years, the residence time in the sink \u03c4s is not well known.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In what follows, we will use a simple two-box first-order model<\/strong>, see Figure 1. The atmosphere has a mass of carbon dioxide equal to A. CO2 molecules can be captured into a sink and this occurs at a certain rate, a fraction of the molecules being trapped per time unit. Each individual molecule has a certain probability to be captured over time. In other words, a molecule has a residence time \u03c4a<\/strong> in the atmosphere (also sometimes called the \u2019turnover time\u2019), which is the reciprocal of the rate, ka<\/strong>. Likewise, in the sink<\/strong>, there is a carbon dioxide mass equal to S, where molecules have a residence time \u03c4s<\/strong>; an individual molecule has a certain probability over time to be released by the sink into the atmosphere, or a rate ks.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Humans add an extra flux into the atmosphere labeled Fh.<\/strong> On the basis of this, we can determine the adjustment time \u03c4<\/strong> of the atmosphere in terms of the residence times. This requires solving a simple mathematical differential equation<\/strong>; we do not have to worry at this moment about the thermodynamics and explain why the reaction constants are what they are. The questions we ask are, if we add an amount of carbon dioxide \u0394A to it:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n