{"id":243159,"date":"2023-02-04T11:16:46","date_gmt":"2023-02-04T10:16:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=243159"},"modified":"2023-02-04T11:16:48","modified_gmt":"2023-02-04T10:16:48","slug":"the-new-pause-lengthens-again-101-months-and-counting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=243159","title":{"rendered":"The New Pause lengthens again: 101 months and counting \u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the third successive year of la Ni\u00f1a settles into its stride, the New Pause has lengthened by another month (and very nearly by two months). There has been no trend in the UAH global mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies since September 2014: 8 years 5 months and counting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As always, the New Pause is not a prediction: it is a measurement. It represents the farthest back one can go using the world\u2019s most reliable global mean temperature dataset without finding a warming trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sheer frequency and length of these Pauses provide a graphic demonstration, readily understandable to all, that It\u2019s Not Worse Than We Thought \u2013 that global warming is slow, small, harmless and, on the evidence to date at any rate, strongly net-beneficial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Again as always, here is the full UAH monthly-anomalies dataset since it began in December 1978. The uptrend remains steady at 0.134 K decade\u20131<\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The gentle warming of recent decades, during which nearly all of our influence on global temperature has arisen, is a very long way below what was originally predicted \u2013 and still is predicted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In IPCC (1990), on the business-as-usual Scenario A emissions scenario that is far closer to outturn than B, C or D, predicted warming to 2100 was 0.3 [0.2, 0.5] K decade\u20131<\/sup>, implying 3 [2, 5] K ECS, just as IPCC (2021) predicts. Yet in the 33 years since 1990 the real-world warming rate has been only 0.137 K decade\u20131<\/sup>, showing practically no acceleration compared with the 0.134 K decade\u20131<\/sup>\u00a0over the whole 44-year period since 1978.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

IPCC\u2019s midrange decadal-warming prediction was thus excessive by 0.16 [0.06, 0.36] K decade\u20131<\/sup>,  or 120% [50%, 260%].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why, then, the mounting hysteria \u2013 in Western nations only \u2013 about the imagined and (so far, at any rate) imaginary threat of global warming rapid enough to be catastrophic?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the third successive year of la Ni\u00f1a settles into its stride, the New Pause has lengthened by another month (and very nearly by two months). There has been no trend in the UAH global mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies since September 2014: 8 years 5 months and counting.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":243166,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-243159","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","9":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-153.png?fit=1600%2C900&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-11fV","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":222430,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=222430","url_meta":{"origin":243159,"position":0},"title":"The New Pause Lengthens to 8 Years","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/10\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The New Pause, having paused a month ago, has now lengthened again: this time to exactly eight years.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/0Screenshot-2022-10-06-124501.png?fit=910%2C455&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/0Screenshot-2022-10-06-124501.png?fit=910%2C455&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/0Screenshot-2022-10-06-124501.png?fit=910%2C455&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/0Screenshot-2022-10-06-124501.png?fit=910%2C455&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":255836,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=255836","url_meta":{"origin":243159,"position":1},"title":"The New Pause Lengthens by Two Months To 8 Years 11 Months","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"We are no longer in la Ni\u00f1a conditions. 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On the normative UAH lower-troposphere dataset there has been no global warming over the 6 years 8 months from January 2015 to August 2021. 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