{"id":241520,"date":"2023-01-25T20:20:02","date_gmt":"2023-01-25T19:20:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=241520"},"modified":"2023-01-25T20:20:04","modified_gmt":"2023-01-25T19:20:04","slug":"energy-transition-and-impossible-dreams","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=241520","title":{"rendered":"Energy Transition and Impossible Dreams"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Daniel Yergin writes at Project Syndicate The Energy Transition Confronts Reality. <\/strong><\/a> Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the scale and complexity of the transition away from hydrocarbons,<\/strong> some worry that economic analysis has been given short shrift<\/strong> in the policy planning process. A clear-eyed assessment of the transition\u2019s prospects requires a deeper understanding of at least four major challenges.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overview<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\u00a0\u201cenergy transition\u201d from hydrocarbons to renewables and electrification<\/strong>\u00a0is at the forefront of policy debates nowadays. But the last 18 months have shown this undertaking to be\u00a0more challenging and complex than one would think just from studying the graphs<\/strong>\u00a0that appear in many scenarios. Even in the United States and Europe, which have adopted massive initiatives (such as the Inflation Reduction Act and RePowerEU) to move things along, the\u00a0development, deployment, and scaling up of the new technologies<\/strong>\u00a0on which the transition ultimately depends will be determined only over time.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Progress of civilization through changing mixes of energy sources.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beware:  The Imagined Transition is to be Sudden and not Additive.<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

The term \u201cenergy transition\u201d suggests that we are simply taking one more step in the journey that began centuries ago with the Industrial Revolution. But in examining previous energy transitions for my book The New Map, I was struck by how different this one is. Whereas technology and economic advantage drove earlier transitions, public policy is now the most important factor.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, previous energy transitions unfolded over the course of a century or more, and they did not wholly displace the incumbent technologies<\/strong>. Oil overtook coal<\/strong> as the world\u2019s top energy source in the 1960s, yet we now use three times more coal<\/strong> than we did back then, with global consumption hitting a record high in 2022.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By contrast, today\u2019s transition is intended to unfold in little more
than a quarter-century and not be additive.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the scale of what is envisioned, some worry that macroeconomic analysis has been given insufficient attention in the policy-planning process. In a 2021 paper for the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the French economist Jean Pisani-Ferry notes that moving too rapidly to net-zero emissions could precipitate \u201can adverse supply shock<\/strong> \u2013 very much like the shocks of the 1970s.\u201d He warns that a precipitous transition \u201cis unlikely to be benign<\/strong> and policymakers should get ready for tough choices.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hard Reality #1  Energy Security is Top Priority<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Developments since energy markets began to tighten in the late summer of 2021 point to four big challenges<\/strong> to watch out for. First, owing largely to the disruptions caused by Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, energy security has become a top priority again. For the most part, keeping the lights on and factories operating still requires hydrocarbons<\/strong>, so energy security means ensuring adequate and reasonably priced supplies and insulation from geopolitical risk and economic hardship.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even with climate change remaining a central focus, US President Joe\u00a0Biden<\/strong>\u00a0administration\u2019s has\u00a0urged domestic companies to increase their oil production<\/strong>\u00a0and released supplies from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a far greater scale than any previous administration. In\u00a0Germany<\/strong>, the Greens in the governing coalition have spearheaded the development of the country\u2019s\u00a0capacity to import liquefied natural gas<\/strong>, with the first deliveries of LNG from the US arriving this month through infrastructure built in less than 200 days.\u00a0Energy security is not something that is going to be assumed away in the years ahead.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hard Reality #2  The Scale Reaches Beyond Our Means<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

The second challenge concerns scale. Today\u2019s $100 trillion world economy depends on hydrocarbons for over 80% of its energy,<\/strong> and nothing as massive and complex as the global energy system can be transformed easily. In an important new book, How The World Really Works, noted energy scholar Vaclav Smil argues that the four essential \u201cpillars of modern civilization\u201d are cement, steel, plastics, and ammonia (for fertilizer), each of which is heavily dependent on the existing energy system.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given these starting conditions,\u00a0will solutions like veganism help?<\/strong>\u00a0Smil points out that\u00a0five tablespoons of petroleum<\/strong>\u00a0are embodied\u00a0in the system that gets a single tomato<\/strong>\u00a0from cultivation in\u00a0Spain<\/strong>\u00a0(including the required fertilizer)\u00a0to<\/strong>\u00a0a dinner table in\u00a0London<\/strong>. Yes,\u00a0energy efficiency could be improved<\/strong>. But the main\u00a0effects will show up in developed countries,<\/strong>\u00a0rather than in the developing world, where 80% of all people live, and where rising incomes will drive up energy demand.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Land required for wind farms to power London UK.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hard Reality #3 North and South Interests Conflict<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

That points to the third challenge: the new North-South divide. In the Global North<\/strong> \u2013 primarily Western Europe and North America \u2013 climate change is at the top of the policy agenda<\/strong>. But in the Global South,<\/strong> that priority coexists with other critical priorities<\/strong>, such as boosting economic growth,<\/strong> reducing poverty<\/strong>, and improving health<\/strong> by targeting indoor air pollution from burning wood and waste.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hence, for many in the developing world, \u201cenergy transition\u201d means
moving from wood and waste to liquefied petroleum gas.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This divide was vividly\u00a0illustrated last year<\/strong>\u00a0when the\u00a0European Parliament<\/strong>\u00a0passed a resolution\u00a0denouncing a proposed oil pipeline running from Uganda through Tanzania<\/strong>\u00a0to the Indian Ocean. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

MEPs objected that the project would adversely affect the climate, the environment, and \u201chuman rights.\u201d Yet they cast their votes\u00a0from a body located in France and Belgium, where per capita income (in current dollars) is, respectively, 50 times and 60 times greater than in Uganda,<\/strong>\u00a0where the pipeline is seen as a foundation for economic development. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The resolution provoked\u00a0a furious reaction.<\/strong>\u00a0The deputy speaker of Uganda\u2019s parliament denounced the\u00a0Europeans<\/strong>\u00a0for\u00a0exhibiting \u201cthe highest level of neocolonialism and imperialism against the sovereignty of Uganda and Tanzania.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hard Reality #4 Materials Demands Blow Away Supplies<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

The fourth challenge concerns the material requirements of the energy transition. I see this as the shift from \u201cBig Oil\u201d to \u201cBig Shovels<\/strong>\u201d \u2013 that is, from drilling for oil and gas to mining the minerals for which demand will increase enormously in a world that becomes more electrified.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a new S&P study, The Future of Copper<\/strong>, we calculate that the supply of \u201cthe metal of electrification\u201d will have to double<\/strong> to support the world\u2019s 2050 climate objectives. Recently, a host of authorities \u2013 including the US and Japanese governments, the European Union, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the International Energy Agency \u2013 have all published alarming reports about the expected exponential growth in demand for minerals such as lithium and cobalt.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But\u00a0alarm<\/strong>\u00a0itself\u00a0will not open major new mines<\/strong>, a process\u00a0estimated to take 16-25 years<\/strong>\u00a0and which faces ever-more\u00a0complex permitting requirements<\/strong>\u00a0around the world. In some key resource countries, governments are openly hostile to mining.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So, while the direction of the energy transition is clear, policymakers and the public must recognize the challenges that it entails. A deeper and more realistic understanding of the\u00a0complex issues<\/strong>\u00a0that need to be addressed is essential as the effort to achieve the transition\u2019s goals proceeds.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My Comment<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

The direction of the called for energy transition is clear alright, but is it necessary?  Recently, no less than John Kerry. told the World Economic Forum the world will eventually move to a low-carbon economy, but it may be too late to avoid the worst effects of climate change.  Meanwhile, there are a number of serious scientists who expect global cooling in coming decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The unmentioned\u00a0Hard Reality #5:\u00a0 Smart People will Adapt to Climate and Weather, as they always have.\u00a0<\/strong>That is, if they haven\u2019t already trashed their energy system and planetary resources chasing an impossible dream.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Zero Carbon Lemmings in a Rush.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Meanwhile, there are a number of serious scientists who expect global cooling in coming 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