{"id":236993,"date":"2022-12-30T19:13:05","date_gmt":"2022-12-30T18:13:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=236993"},"modified":"2022-12-30T19:13:11","modified_gmt":"2022-12-30T18:13:11","slug":"w-hudson-bay-polar-bear-population-decline-stories-are-unethical-and-ignore-critical-caveats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=236993","title":{"rendered":"W. Hudson Bay polar bear population decline stories are unethical and ignore critical caveats"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From polarbearscience<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Canadian government scientists created\u00a0headline news worldwide<\/a>\u00a0last week when they told the media that Western Hudson Bay polar bear numbers appeared to have declined by 27% between 2017 and 2021, based on a survey report that has not been made public. This is called\u00a0\u2018science by press release\u2019<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Its practice is rightfully considered unethical, as it is\u00a0usually associated with<\/a>\u00a0\u201cpeople promoting scientific \u2018findings\u2019 of questionable scientific merit who turn to the media for attention when they are unlikely to win the approval of the professional scientific community.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Not surprisingly,\u00a0all of the stories stated or implied<\/a>\u00a0a strong association between this purported population decline and lack of sea ice due to \u2018climate change\u2019. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, sea ice conditions have been\u00a0particularly good over the last five year<\/a>s\u2013for\u00a0both freeze-up<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0breakup dates<\/a>\u2013calling into question how \u2018lack of sea ice\u2019 could possibly be to blame for the apparent decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Reuters<\/em> story<\/a> (dated 23 December 2022) admits this is the case and included another critical caveat that only one news outlet I saw bothered to mention, which happened to be BBC News<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scientists cautioned a direct link between the population decline and sea ice loss in Hudson Bay wasn\u2019t yet clear, as four of the past five years have seen moderately good ice conditions. Instead, they said, climate-caused changes in the local seal population might be driving bear numbers down.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, an Associated Press story<\/a> published the day before (22 December 2022), picked up<\/a> by many other outlets<\/a>, did not include these critical pieces of information<\/a> about recent good sea ice conditions and possible declines in seal abundance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Without being able to check the actual government report for details (which is not a peer-reviewed document), there is not much more that I can say. Although several news stories claimed the report was recently released, it was not publicly available on the Nunavut Government website<\/a> as of 28 December or anywhere else online that I could find. None of the news reports link to any such \u2018available\u2019 study, cited its title, or even linked to an official press release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, based on the Reuters story<\/a>, it appears that the authors were unable to make a definitive link between sea ice loss and a decline in polar bear numbers in Western Hudson Bay, despite what they (or others) might have told the media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What about ringed seals, their primary prey? Have ringed seal numbers declined over the 2017-2021 period, creating a lack of food for bears in Hudson Bay? If so, is there a clear correlation between declining ringed seal numbers and lack of sea ice, as implied by the Reuters statement quoted above?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The short answer is no. Studies on ringed seals in Hudson Bay indicate no definitive cause and effect between sea ice changes and seal health and survival (Ferguson et al. 2017, 2019, 2020), primarily because there has been no declining trend in sea ice coverag<\/em>e:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our trend analysis of environ\u00admental variables indicated a strong warming pattern prior to 1999.<\/em> Following this decisive shift, the region has dem\u00adonstrated no warming trend. <\/em><\/strong>Still, the 2000 to 2016 body conditions trend was negative suggesting an overall decline in ringed seal body fat over this period.<\/em> [Ferguson et al. 2020]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, if there has been an actual decline in polar bear numbers, as the authors claim to have found, it is not clear by any means what is to blame. If some bears were not finding enough seals to eat over the last few years and have been starving to death, it is not at all clear why there were fewer seals available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom line:\u00a0<\/strong>There are no data linking a critical lack of sea ice to poor health or abundance for either polar bears or their ringed seal prey in Western Hudson Bay between 2017 and 2021. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, the authors of a government report on polar bear numbers that is not yet publicly available felt comfortable telling the media that lack of sea ice could be blamed for an apparent decline in polar bear abundance over the last five years, confirming earlier predictions that this is exactly what would happen because of human-caused global warming. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I call this a perfect example of\u00a0\u2018science by press release<\/a><\/em>\u2018, which researchers resort to only when they have findings of\u00a0questionable scientific merit<\/a>\u00a0and a sensational narrative to push.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ll assess the actual report when it is made publicly available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ferguson, S.H., Young, B.G., Yurkowski, D.J., et al. 2017.<\/strong> Demographic, ecological, and physiological responses of ringed seals to an abrupt decline in sea ice availability. PeerJ<\/em> 5:e2957. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7717\/peerj.2957<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ferguson, S.H., Yurkowski, D.J., Young, B.G., et al. 2019. <\/strong>Do intraspecific life history patterns follow interspecific predictions? A test using latitudinal variation in ringed seals. Population Ecology 61(4):371-382. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/1438-390X.12008<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ferguson, S.H., Yurkowski, D.J., Young, B.G., et al. 2020.<\/strong> Comparing temporal patterns in body condition of ringed seals living within their core geographic range with those living at the edge. Ecography<\/em> 43:1521-1535. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/ecog.04988<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Scientists cautioned a direct link between the population decline and sea ice loss in Hudson Bay wasn\u2019t yet clear, as four of the past five years have seen moderately good ice conditions. Instead, they said, climate-caused changes in the local seal population might be driving bear numbers down.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":236999,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-236993","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","9":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/082776-050-2DBD6D34.jpg?fit=1600%2C1056&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-ZEt","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":276419,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=276419","url_meta":{"origin":236993,"position":0},"title":"W. Hudson Bay polar bear numbers declined 27% in 2021 but not because of missing ice: secret paper","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"30\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"As will become apparent tomorrow, Western Hudson Bay polar bear numbers apparently declined 27% between 2017 and 2021 but not because of sea ice loss.","rel":"","context":"In \"polar bear\"","block_context":{"text":"polar bear","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=polar-bear"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00Steven-C-Amstrup-000025-1536x1046-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00Steven-C-Amstrup-000025-1536x1046-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00Steven-C-Amstrup-000025-1536x1046-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00Steven-C-Amstrup-000025-1536x1046-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00Steven-C-Amstrup-000025-1536x1046-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":257313,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=257313","url_meta":{"origin":236993,"position":1},"title":"Polar bears in W. Hudson Bay are in good shape, says researcher. So are numbers really falling?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"We\u2019ve got ourselves another round of field data\u2013i.e., facts\u2013not fitting the\u00a0polar-bears-are-starving-to-death\u00a0narrative. According to polar bear specialist Andrew Derocher, Western Hudson Bay polar bears his team saw in April while installing collars and ear tags were in\u00a0good shape\u00a0this year, as he said they were\u00a0last year.","rel":"","context":"In \"plar bears\"","block_context":{"text":"plar bears","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=plar-bears"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":283662,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=283662","url_meta":{"origin":236993,"position":2},"title":"Polar bear researchers hiding significant increase in Southern Hudson Bay numbers","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Good news of the polar bear population blaming fear mongering reports. 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