{"id":228485,"date":"2022-11-10T20:49:18","date_gmt":"2022-11-10T19:49:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=228485"},"modified":"2022-11-10T20:49:20","modified_gmt":"2022-11-10T19:49:20","slug":"polar-bear-habitat-update-ice-forming-along-hudson-bay-wrangel-franz-josef-islands-surrounded","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=228485","title":{"rendered":"Polar bear habitat update: ice forming along Hudson Bay, Wrangel & Franz Josef Islands surrounded"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Western Hudson Bay polar bears near Churchill will be able to leave shore within days, at most one week later than in the 1980s<\/a>, although you wouldn\u2019t know that from the climate change activists at Polar Bears International<\/a><\/em> who have spent the last week <\/a>promoting some egregiously false and misleading statements<\/a>. PBI controls the narrative<\/a> surrounding Western Hudson Bay bears through their partnership with the biggest polar bear tourist outfits<\/a> in Churchill and online.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday, it was\u00a0\u201cSee how the climate crisis is changing their world\u201d.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Developing no slower than it did in 2007 (16 years of no change), Arctic Sea ice is providing polar bears in southern regions with their\u00a0second-most critical feeding opportunities<\/a>\u00a0while in areas like\u00a0Wrangel Island<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Franz Josef Land<\/a>, they now have easy access to and from important summer refuge\/maternity denning islands. And contrary to predictions of increased \u2018conflict\u2019 between polar bears and people around Churchill, there have been\u00a0fewer problem bear reports<\/a>\u00a0there in recent years,\u00a0this year included<\/a>. In other words, there is no \u2018climate crisis\u2019 for polar bears, even in\u00a0Western Hudson Bay<\/a>, and recent models of a dire future for polar bears are based on\u00a0totally implausible worst-case climate scenarios<\/a>. Sea ice loss since 1979 has been so gradual that polar bears have been able to adapt, either through\u00a0natural selection<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0changes in behaviour<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arctic Sea Ice Conditions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the\u00a0NSIDC,<\/a>\u00a0October summary shows no declining trend in sea ice coverage since 2007, despite repeated claims by some activists that sea ice conditions have been\u00a0continuously deteriorating<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What the ice charts show<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Close-up images take from the chart above for 9 November 2022 (overall ice coverage 9.5mk2)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Western Hudson Bay<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Freeze-up this year has been a bit slower than 2020, which was as early as the earliest freeze-ups in the 1980<\/a>s, but not by much. In the 1980s, most bears left for the ice at freeze-up (10% sea ice coverage) about 16 November \u00b1 5 days (Castro de la Guardia 2017, see graph below). The earliest the bears left the ice was in 1991 and 1993, on 6 November (Julian day 310)\u2013in 2020, most bears were gone by 8 November, one of the earliest dates on record<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, freeze-up dates of 10-12 November or so (Day 314-316) for 2017, 2018, and 2019 were some of the earliest freeze-up dates recorded since 1979 (the earliest being 6 November, Day 310, in 1991 and 1993), even earlier than the average for the 1980s. Barring offshore winds that force the ice away, this year should be similar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That means Explore.org PBI-affiliated moderator \u2018Cloud\u2019 was passing along disinformation to viewers when she said two days ago<\/a> [my bold]:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe ice is just starting to form on Hudson Bay. It is much later than years past,<\/strong> but typical for our present times.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Virtually all Western Hudson Bay bears leave the shore within about 2 days of sea ice concentration reaching 10% (Castro de la Guardia 2017), although Southern Hudson Bay bears leave when it reaches about 5% (Obbard et al. 2015, 2016). In other words, the bears go as soon as they possibly can (Stirling et al. 1977).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hudson Bay Sea ice coverage<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weekly coverage at 7 November compared to previous years and the long-term average (courtesy Canadian Ice Service) for the NW sector of the bay, showing just how little change<\/em> there has been in recent decades:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Daily coverage for 9 November:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

and to the south\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Churchill Problem Bears<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

After 15 weeks onshore this year, there have been few problems with polar bears in Churchill:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Compare the above to the same week in 2016, when freeze-up was quite late<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polar bear photos from Wapusk National Park<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Courtesy the Explore.org web cams<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Four bears sharing a seal kill, 5 November 2022.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
Female with two cubs, 8 November.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Below: two males sparring vigorously, 8 November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Castro de la Guardia, L., Myers, P.G., Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J., Terwisscha van Scheltinga, A.D. 2017.<\/strong> Sea ice cycle in western Hudson Bay, Canada, from a polar bear perspective. Marine Ecology Progress Series<\/em> 564: 225\u2013233. http:\/\/www.int-res.com\/abstracts\/meps\/v564\/p225-233\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obbard, M.E., Stapleton, S., Middel, K.R., Thibault, I., Brodeur, V. and Jutras, C. 2015.<\/strong> Estimating the abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation with aerial surveys. Polar Biology<\/em> 38:1713-1725.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obbard, M.E., Cattet, M.R.I., Howe, E.J., Middel, K.R., Newton, E.J., Kolenosky, G.B., Abraham, K.F. and Greenwood, C.J. 2016.<\/strong> Trends in body condition in polar bears (Ursus maritimus<\/em>) from the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation in relation to changes in sea ice. Arctic Science<\/em> 2: 15-32. DOI: 10.1139\/AS-2015-0027<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stirling I, Jonkel C, Smith P, Robertson R, Cross D. 1977.<\/strong>\u00a0The ecology of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus<\/em>) along the western coast of Hudson Bay.\u00a0Canadian Wildlife Service Occasional Paper No. 33.<\/em>\u00a0pdf\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

via polarbearscience<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

November 10, 2022<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polar bear habitat update: ice forming along Hudson Bay, Wrangel & Franz Josef Islands surrounded | polarbearscience<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Freeze-up this year has been a bit slower than 2020, which was\u00a0as early as the earliest freeze-ups in the 1980s, but not by much. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":228503,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-228485","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","9":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/00Wapusk-NP-Female-and-2-COYs-8-Nov-2022-still.webp?fit=1920%2C1080&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-Xrf","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":224607,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=224607","url_meta":{"origin":228485,"position":0},"title":"Western Hudson Bay polar bears waiting for the sea ice to freeze as tourists flock to watch","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/10\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Should only be a few weeks more until the ice forms along the western shore of Hudson Bay, it\u2019s already been snowing.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-912.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-912.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-912.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-912.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-912.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":267566,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267566","url_meta":{"origin":228485,"position":1},"title":"Hudson Bay sea ice loss has not accelerated since 2014: in fact, summer ice cover has improved","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"This is only the third year since 2014 that the bay has had less than usual amounts of ice, which means most years since then have had normal or nearly normal ice coverage, similar to the 1980s. Hardly the\u00a0ever-worsening catastrophe\u00a0of sea ice loss story being spun in the media for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Hudson Bay\"","block_context":{"text":"Hudson Bay","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=hudson-bay"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":239391,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=239391","url_meta":{"origin":228485,"position":2},"title":"Recent paper on W. 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2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":232884,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=232884","url_meta":{"origin":228485,"position":3},"title":"Polar bear specialist calls Hudson Bay freeze-up \u2018late\u2019 yet bears were moving offshore 2 weeks ago","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/12\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Predictably, polar bear specialist Andrew Derocher has finally posted a tracking map of the Western Hudson Bay bears his team has fitted with collars and ear tags\u2013two weeks after bears were released from Churchill\u2019s polar bear jail, which is the local signal that there is enough sea ice for bears\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar 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themselves","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/10\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"That\u2019s true elsewhere as well: an uneventful summer for polar bear attacks is good news indeed.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-195.png?fit=751%2C573&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-195.png?fit=751%2C573&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-195.png?fit=751%2C573&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-195.png?fit=751%2C573&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":216047,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=216047","url_meta":{"origin":228485,"position":5},"title":"Last WH polar bears 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