<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n Blurbs from the publisher:<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cA bold, visionary, and mind-bending exploration of how the geometry of chaos can explain our uncertain world \u2013 from weather and pandemics to quantum physics and free will. Covering a breathtaking range of topics \u2013 from climate change to the foundations of quantum physics, from economic modelling to conflict prediction, from free will to consciousness and spirituality \u2013 The Primacy of Doubt takes us on a unique journey through the science of uncertainty. A key theme that unifies these seemingly unconnected topics is the geometry of chaos: the beautiful and profound fractal structures that lie at the heart of much of modern mathematics. Royal Society Research Professor Tim Palmer shows us how the geometry of chaos not only provides the means to predict the world around us, it suggests new insights into some of the most astonishing aspects of our universe and ourselves. This important and timely book helps the reader makes sense of uncertainty in a rapidly changing world.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn The Primacy of Doubt<\/em>, Palmer argues that embracing the mathematics of uncertainty is vital to understanding ourselves and the universe around us. Whether we want to predict climate change or market crashes, understand how the brain is able to outpace supercomputers, or find a theory that links quantum and cosmological physics, Palmer shows how his vision of mathematical uncertainty provides new insights into some of the deepest problems in science. The result is a revolution\u2014one that shows that power begins by embracing what we don\u2019t know.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cA bold, visionary and mind-bending exploration of how the geometry of chaos can explain our uncertain world \u2013 from weather and pandemics to quantum physics and free will\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe Primacy of Doubt explains how the geometry of chaos allows us to understand why systems can be predictable most of the time, but spectacularly unpredictable on occasion\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Comments from leading physicists:<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe Primacy of Doubt provides a remarkably broad-ranging account of uncertainty in physics, in all its various aspects. I strongly recommend this highly thought-provoking book.\u201d \u2013 Roger Penrose, OM, FRS, winner of the 2020 Nobel Prize in Physics<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cTim Palmer is a scientific polymath. It\u2019s hard to think of anyone else who could have written so authoritatively-and so accessibly-on themes extending from quantum gravity to climate modelling. This fascinating and important book offers some profoundly original speculations on conceptual linkages across different sciences. \u2013 Lord Martin Rees, Astronomer Royal of the United Kingdom<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe Primacy of Doubt is an important book by one of the pioneers of dynamical weather prediction, indispensable for daily life.\u201d \u2013 Suki Manabe, winner of the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn a whirlwind of a book that\u2019s partly scientific autobiography and partly the manifest of a visionary, Tim Palmer masterfully weaves together climate change and quantum mechanics into one coherent whole. Using uncertainty as a unifying principle, Palmer puts forward new perspectives on old problems. A revolutionary thinker way ahead of his time.\u201d \u2013 Sabine Hossenfelder, author of Lost in Math<\/p>\n\n\n\n From the PopScience review<\/a>: \u201cThis is quite possibly the best popular science book I\u2019ve ever read (and I\u2019ve read hundreds).\u201d \u201cWhat is astounding is the the way that Palmer rattles through a series of topics that are quite difficult to get our head around and, in several diverse cases, give the most approachable explanations I\u2019ve ever seen.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Palmer\u2019s biosketch:<\/strong> Tim Palmer, FRS, CBE is a Royal Society Research Professor in the department of physics at the University of Oxford. He pioneered the development of operational ensemble weather and climate forecasting. Palmer is a Commander of the British Empire, a fellow of the Royal Society and the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, and a recipient of the Institute of Physics\u2019 Dirac Gold Medal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The\u00a0Author\u2019s note<\/strong>\u00a0is a fascinating read on Palmer\u2019s scientific background and intellectual journey.\u00a0 In the 1970\u2019s at Oxford, Palmer studied general relativity and black holes under Dennis Sciama.\u00a0 In considering what to do as a postgraduate, Palmer turned down a postdoc with Stephen Hawking(!).\u00a0 Palmer became interested in meteorology in a chance meeting with Raymond Hide, who had interests in both meteorology and astronomy.\u00a0 On a whim, he applied for a position at the UK Met Office and was offered a job.\u00a0 His wrenching decision that resulted in turning down the opportunity to work with Hawking is fascinating reading.\u00a0 His growing interest in chaos theory was the source of many of his seminal contributions to meteorology, but also rekindled his interest in quantum physics.\u00a0 There is no question that this is the journey of a unique and profound intellect, that the fields of meteorology and climate have been extremely fortunate to encounter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Table of Contents<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Author\u2019s note<\/p>\n\n\n\n Introduction<\/p>\n\n\n\n PART I: THE SCIENCE OF UNCERTAINTY<\/p>\n\n\n\n PART II: PREDICTING OUR CHAOTIC WORLD<\/p>\n\n\n\n PART III: UNDERSTANDING THE CHAOTIC UNIVERSE AND OUR PLACE IN IT<\/p>\n\n\n\n JC\u2019s overview and review<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n This is a beautifully written book: eloquent while at the same time approachable, spiked with anecdotes and occasional self-deprecating humor. Some quotes from the Introduction<\/strong>, that give a flavor of the book, including the style of writing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI will be elevating the notion of uncertainty, or doubt, to a status it is not usually given not as an \u201cOh, I suppose we\u2019d better do a risk analysis\u201d afterthought, but as a matter of primal importance and focus. There are two reasons for doing this. First, there is the practical reason that we are liable to make lousy decisions if we base them on predictions with unreliable estimates of uncertainty. But just as important, at least for me as a scientist, we may be able to understand better the way systems work by focusing on the ways in which they are or can become uncertain.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn short, the scope of this book is quite unique. On the one hand we cover the loftiest questions that philosophy has ever addressed and attempt to answer them in novel ways. On the other we\u2019ll describe practical techniques that have transformed the way we go about predicting how our world will evolve over the coming days, years and decades ahead. Some readers, I hope, will be exhilarated by the discussion of long-standing conceptual problems like free will, consciousness and the puzzling nature of quantum physics. Others may be thrilled to see the science of chaos applied for the benefit of society (and some of the poorest parts of society in particular). For yet others, reading this book may help them understand themselves better. Not least they may come to realize that some of our apparent shortcomings are not signs of irrationality or failure, but manifestations of our unique ability to cope with the enormous uncertainties of life. There is, I hope, something for everyone.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Part I: \u201c<\/strong>Three important ideas are discussed in Part I. The first is that a type of geometry\u2014what I call the geometry of chaos\u2014explains why some systems can be stable and predictable for much of the time, and yet their future behaviour becomes completely uncertain on occasion. The second idea applies to systems that are so complex, we will never be able to model them exactly. In such situations, adding noise to a model can be a good way to represent some of the missing complexity. In this way, noise is often a positive constructive resource, and not the nuisance we typically think it to be.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Part I deals with topics that I last encountered in my undergraduate Modern Physics course (in the 1970\u2019s), so I don\u2019t have much of a framework for interpreting this. Historical and philosophical perspectives are combined with the scientific exposition. It is a very interesting read and for the most part understandable with my limited background (my interest flagged a bit in Chapter 4). Part I sets the stage for Parts II and III.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Part I is PopSci\u2019s favorite: \u201cIn terms of this broad enlightening nature, the first of the three sections in the book stands out head and shoulders above the rest. Palmer starts by exploring chaos and gives the best explanation of the behaviour of chaotic systems, state space and attractors I\u2019ve come across. Then he throws in Cantor sets, then shows the relationship of weather forecasts to all this and introduces p-adic numbers (arguably the only bit that could have been better explained). He then shows graphically (literally, not metaphorically) how the introduction of noise can make models of chaotic systems work better. Finally in this section, he takes on quantum uncertainty, with one of the only explanations of the use of Bell\u2019s inequality I\u2019ve ever seen that is at least vaguely comprehensible.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Part II<\/strong>: \u201cWe apply the ideas discussed in Part I to develop practical tools for predicting complex, inherently uncertain systems. The key idea here is ensemble prediction: running our models multiple times while varying uncertain initial conditions and model equations. When the spread of a reliable ensemble system is small, we can make fairly precise forecasts with confidence. By contrast, when the spread is large, we can make forecasts only using the language of probability. In this way, the geometry of chaos is manifest in the variable spread of the ensemble. Ensemble prediction methods are applied to weather and climate (where the techniques are reasonably mature and well validated), and to disease, economics and conflict (where techniques are still in development).\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Part II is to me the liveliest part of the book, with real world applications of the ideas of ensemble prediction. Chapter 5 provides a fascinating account of the history of weather forecasts, including numerical weather prediction. The focus of the chapter is Monte Carlo methods that provide the basis for ensemble weather prediction, providing the basis for assessing forecast uncertainty, including Palmer\u2019s central contributions. (Chapter 6 on Climate Change is discussed in the final section of this review). In the other chapters of Part II, Palmer speculates on how ensemble forecast approaches could benefit epidemiological models that forecast pandemics, economic models and their failure to predict financial crashes, and models of wars\/conflicts. From PopSci: \u201cthings really liven up when we get onto economics, and how economists are stuck in the fairly useless state meteorologists were before the great storm of 1987, when they used single-run forecasts, rather than ensembles. He also shows fairly bluntly that economists have failed in the development of the kind of models that can handle a chaotic system like the economy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Chapter 10 on decisions illustrates real world examples for using ensemble weather forecasts to support decision making \u2013 including Peter Webster\u2019s work on probabilistic flood forecasts for Bangladesh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Part III: \u201c<\/strong>Two key ideas from Part I are applied to try to understand two of the most puzzling aspects of the universe: the world of quantum physics and ourselves. We start by assuming that the geometry of chaos applies to the universe as a whole. This leads to the crucial idea that certain counterfactual worlds, where we might have done something but didn\u2019t, could actually be inconsistent with the laws of physics. This helps make comprehensible certain long-standing quantum mysteries. Following this we discuss the idea that the human brain makes constructive use of noise to model the world around us, and that this has enabled us to become the creative species we are. I then speculate that the geometry of chaos can help explain two of our most visceral but puzzling experiences: having free will and being conscious.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Part III is more speculative.\u00a0 Chapter 11 describes Palmer\u2019s new thinking on quantum uncertainty, incorporating the geometry of chaos. \u00a0\u00a0Pretty interesting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Chapter 12 \u201cOur Noisy Brains\u201d is one of my favorite chapters of the book.\u00a0 \u00a0Palmer hypothesizes that the human brain makes constructive use of noise in trying to create a low-order model of the high-order world around us. He argues that such noise is a key element in making us creative, innovative beings. \u00a0Palmer extends Daniel Kahnemann\u2019s thinking fast and slow by considering the brain\u2019s energetics in describing this modal operation of the brain.\u00a0 In the low power mode (thinking fast), when the brain is multi-tasking and is more susceptible to noise, random new ideas can be generated \u2013 eureka moments. In this framing, creativity involves a synergy between the low-power (stochasticity, noise) and the power-intensive (deterministic) modes of thinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Chapter 13 extends these ideas to include a role for quantum physics in counterfactual reasoning in the brain in relation to what human\u2019s regard as free will.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Climate Change<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Two reasons to highlight Chapter 6 on Climate Change: this is a climate blog; and the first major review of this book focuses on the climate change issue (see the Scientific American review below).\u00a0 The chapter provides a good overview of the greenhouse effect, feedbacks, etc.\u00a0 and also, the history of climate modelling.\u00a0 Palmer describes his concerns about global climate models, and his plan for the next generation of climate models at much higher resolution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In line with the major themes of the book in terms of uncertainty and ensemble prediction:<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIndeed, it\u2019s simply not possible to describe climate change in an objective, scientific way without explaining the three roles of ensembles: for estimating the uncertain feedback effects in climate science; for estimating the impact of climate policy on climate change; and for separating the effects of natural chaotic variability from human-induced effects. From the first way of using ensembles, we can address how big an impact our emissions of greenhouse gases are having on global temperatures. With the second set of ensembles, we can assess whether mitigating actions can be effective or not. And from the third set of ensembles, we can not only assess the extent to which observed changes in weather and climate are natural (\u201cclimate is always changing\u201d), we can try to attribute specific weather events to climate change, at least in a probabilistic way.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The more interesting part of the Chapter addresses the question in the chapter subtitle: \u201cCatastrophe or Just Lukewarm?\u201d Palmer addresses how we should view climate change from a perspective that is consistent with the \u201cprimacy of doubt,\u201d treading carefully around the \u201cmerchants of doubt\u201d meme. Both sides of the argument are reviewed, which are referred to as the \u201cmaximalist\u201d and \u201cminimalist\u201d positions.\u00a0 In Chapter 6 he concludes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cLet\u2019s summarise. Taking a specific position\u2014minimalist, maximalist or indeed any specific point in between\u2014is simply inconsistent with the science. The key message of this chapter is that one\u2019s attitude to climate change, like to weather prediction, should be framed in terms of risk: Is the risk of undesirable changes to climate high enough to warrant taking precautionary action now?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Palmer takes on this question more directly in Chapter 10 Decisions! Decisions! Palmer introduces the concept of a Statistical Life (which, when expressed in terms of GDP per capita) can be applied to both developed and developing country inhabitants. His conclusion is that it is overwhelmingly worthwhile to take action now to reduce the risk of a 4 degree \u201chell on earth\u201d warmer world at an assumed 30% probability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hard to disagree with that conclusion related to 4C warming, but the devil is in the assumption of 30% probability of 4 C warming. With RCP8.5 increasingly being regarded as implausible, and with the IPCC AR6 putting the the upper likely bound of equilibrium climate sensitivity at 4C, the chances of 4C warming are now generally regarded as quite small.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Something here for both the maximalists and minimalists to find unsatisfactory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-890.png?resize=723%2C1011&ssl=1\")
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